United States jobless claims

United States Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. United States Initial Jobless Claims is a coincident indicator used to analyze current U.S. economic conditions.

United States’s jobless claims decreased to 385.0 by -5.17% on May 2021 from 406.0 in the previous month. On a year on year basis United States’s jobless claims decreased by -45.93%. United States’s jobless claims trend is down since the current value of 385.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 568.667. and the 12 month moving average slope is down. United States’s jobless claims 5-year percentile is currently at 20.0%.

United States jobless claims Chart

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United States jobless claims

United States Jobless claims Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the United States jobless claims signals presented in the statistics table below.

IndicatorSymbolActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
jobless claimsus.joblessclaims2032020.5-2.87UPDown21.672022-05-04

United States Financial Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500SPX4631.60.50.751.1551865.27040.012260.02660.075550.17002
S&P 500 ETFSPY461.550.50.751.1317864.99280.012370.02660.073420.16928
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY98.400.751.8316353.8105-0.00696-0.000910.010160.06771
United States 10-Year Bond YieldUS.10Y2.4010.513.2961765.7225-0.025960.006710.391880.43437
US 5-year bond yieldUS.5Y2.50.513.1474370.948-0.025340.041230.570351.8772
US 30-year bond yieldUS.30Y2.505012.203657.5522-0.01803-0.037650.190020.0609
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLT130.740-1-2.3280342.16770.007550.01601-0.07473-0.04016
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate BondLQD120.940-0.75-2.461446.13040.008420.00926-0.03225-0.06761
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate BondHYG82.840-0.75-1.9753654.11150.012340.01024-0.00349-0.04518
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFIEF106.85-0.5-1-3.2799134.54640.00498-0.00196-0.05534-0.05518
SPDR Barclays High Yield BondJNK103.110-0.75-2.0359653.80910.012170.0093-0.00358-0.04863
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIP126.72-0.50-0.6048251.2291-0.00307-0.013850.024170.01457
US 2-year bond yieldUS.2Y2.375113.3538981.26510.014960.091950.7605614.5534
US Yield CurveUS.YC1.08011.7485855.6394-3.57-11.55-25.281.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5sUS.YC250.5300.51.3863950.8504-7.67-13.96-22.823.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10sUS.YC5100.55011.8434858.6679-0.18-9.69-27.561.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30sUS.YC5301.200.751.2176852.83292.13-2.28-16.560.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30sUS.YC10300.65-1-0.50.5272145.03874.175.01-4.260.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30sUS.YC02301.7300.751.3144852.3027-1.09-6.18-18.581.14607

United States Financial News Stream

United States Macroeconomic Indicators

IndicatorSymbolActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of tradeus.balanceoftrade-79614-84906-6.2310.23UPDown13.332022-08-06
bank lending rateus.banks.lendingrate3.253.81-0.146982-0.409091-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
building permitsus.buildingpermits169616950.062.48DownUP78.332022-07-31
business confidence (ISM)us.bizconfidence55.457.1-2.98-8.73DownDown33.332022-05-04
capacity utilizationus.caputilization8080.3-0.375.68UPUP96.672022-07-16
capital flowsus.capitalflows182473-2708-6838.2994.43UPUP902022-07-22
car registrationsus.carregistrations260.47266.28-2.18-35.71DownDown152022-07-31
case shiller home price indexus.caseshiller317.3312.551.5220.51UPUP1002022-07-31
composite pmius.comppmi47.552.3-9.18-20.7DownDown6.672022-07-31
consumer confidenceus.us.consconfidence51.5503-26.74DownDown52022-07-31
consumer price index cpius.cpi296.31292.31.379.35UPUP1002022-07-16
continuing jobless claimsus.contjoblessclaims141613683.515.51UPUP26.672022-08-06
core inflation rateus.coreinflationrate4.53.80.1842112.751.01.012021-06-30
core pce price indexus.corepce122.95122.220.65.3UPUP1002022-07-31
core Producer Price Indexus.coreproducerprices135.3134.50.598.94UPUP1002022-07-22
current accountus.currentaccount-291418-22483729.61130.16DownDown1.672022-06-24
current account to gdpus.currentaccountgdp-3.6-2.924.1433.33DownDown02022-06-24
durable goods ordersus.durablegoods1.90.8137.5137.5UPUP73.332022-07-27
durable goods orders ex defenseus.durablegoodsexdef0.40.7-42.86-60DownDown402022-07-27
durable goods orders ex transportationus.durablegoodsextransp0.30.5-40-0DownDown402022-07-27
exportsus.exports2607992565231.6723.64UPUP1002022-08-06
external debtus.externaldebt23930400233707002.419.62UPUP1002022-07-02
fiscal expenditureus.fiscalexp480387549603-12.59-14.83DownDown66.672022-08-11
foreign direct investmentus.fdi7068174700-5.3850.27UPUP96.672022-06-24
foreign exchange reservesus.fxreserves3627337610-3.55-14.42DownDown1.672022-07-31
gdpus.gdp20936.621433.2-0.02316970.4230191.01.002020-01-31
Real GDPus.realgdp19681.719727.9-0.233.48UPUP96.672022-07-31
gdp growthus.gdpgrowth-0.9-1.6-43.75-160DownDown16.672022-07-31
gdp growth annualus.gdpgrowthan1.63.5-54.29-20UPDown32.52022-07-31
gold reservesus.goldres8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01
government budgetus.govbudget-14.9-4.62.239133.80645-1.0-1.00.9166672020-01-31
Government budgetus.govbudgetvalue-211052-88842137.56-30.13DownUP23.332022-08-11
government debtus.govdebt30595100305686000.097.62UPUP1002022-08-06
government debt to gdpus.govdebtgdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
government revenuesus.govrev269335460761-41.552.8DownUP502022-08-11
housing startsus.housingstarts15591591-2.01-5.91DownDown71.672022-07-22
importsus.imports340413341429-0.320.22UPUP96.672022-08-06
industrial productionus.indproduction4.24.8-12.5-74.39DownDown78.332022-07-16
industrial production momus.indproductionmm0.21.4-85.71100DownUP43.332022-06-16
inflation cpius.inflationcpi8.59.1-6.5957.41UPUP97.52022-08-11
inflation expectationsus.inflationexp6.26.8-8.8229.17UPUP952022-08-11
interbank rateus.interbankrate0.130.14-0.0714286-0.35-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-02
interest rateus.interestrate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
job offersus.joboffers1069811303-5.355.04DownUP852022-08-02
jobless claimsus.joblessclaims2032020.5-2.87UPDown21.672022-05-04
loans to private sectorus.loanprivate2661.892599.422.46.99UPUP88.332022-07-22
long term unemployment rateus.ltunemploymentrate2.472.330.06008581.839081.01.00.8666672021-06-30
United Statesus.manpmi52.352.7-0.76-17.51DownDown23.332022-07-31
money supply m0us.msm055065005591600-1.52-8.64DownDown752022-07-31
money supply m1us.msm120545.420632.9-0.426.79UPUP902022-07-31
money supply m2us.msm221667.521754.2-0.46.28UPUP91.672022-07-31
mortgage rateus.mortgrate5.435.74-5.432.76UPUP96.672022-08-03
nahb housing market indexus.nahb5567-17.91-31.25DownDown52022-07-22
new home salesus.newhomesales590642-8.1-13.62DownDown102022-07-31
non manufacturing pmius.nonmanpmi56.755.32.53-11.54DownDown38.332022-08-03
Producer Price Indexus.producerprices140.43138.891.1111.1UPUP1002022-07-16
PPI Indexus.producerpricesch6.24.20.47619-5.133331.01.00.03333332021-04-30
retail sales MoMus.retailsales1-0.1-110011.11UPUP73.332022-07-16
retail salesus.retailsalesan8.27.312.33-84.64DownDown78.332022-05-18
retail sales ex autosus.retailsalesexauto10.666.67-41.18UPDown702022-07-16
services pmius.servpmi4752.7-10.82-21.54DownDown6.672022-07-31
total vehicle salesus.vehiclesales12.714.3-11.19-25.25DownDown102022-05-26
unemployment rateus.unemploymentrate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
youth unemployment rateus.ytunemploymentrate1111.1-0.00900901-0.59854-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rateus.fedfunds.eff0.060.07-0.1428570.2-1.01.00.352021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spreadus.baml.hy3.213.23-0.00619195-0.041791-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spreadus.baml.bbb1.111.12-0.00892857-0.0176991-1.0-1.00.4333332021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentimentus.uomconf88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rateus.5y5y2.652.530.04743082.441561.01.00.9833332021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spreadus.baml.master0.90.91-0.0109890-1.0-1.00.7916672021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spreadus.baml.bbb2.322.34-0.00854701-0.0491803-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limitus.fedfunds.lower110-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1083332020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipmentsus.cassfreight1.2691.1780.07724960.3528781.01.012021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment indexus.ism.man.emp50.955.1-0.0762250.585671.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing indexus.ism.man61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employmentus.ism.serv.emp55.358.8-0.05952380.7389941.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing indexus.ism.serv72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders indexus.ism.serv.neword63.963.20.01107590.525061.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices indexus.ism.serv.prices80.676.80.04947920.449641.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Indexus.ism.man.neworders6764.30.04199071.106921.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activityus.ism.serv.biz66.262.70.05582140.6146341.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Indexus.ism.man.prod58.562.5-0.0640.762048-1.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Indexus.ims.man.supdel78.8750.05066670.1588241.01.00.82021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Indexus.ism.man.inv50.846.50.09247310.007936511.01.00.4666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Indexus.ism.man.cust2828.4-0.0140845-0.393939-1.0-1.00.03333332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Indexus.ism.man.prices8889.6-0.01785711.156861.01.00.9666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Indexus.ism.man.backlog70.668.20.03519060.8481681.01.012021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Indexus.ism.man.exp55.454.90.009107470.4025321.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Indexus.ism.serv.inv51.549.10.04887980.0729167-1.01.00.8833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Indexus.ism.serv.supdel70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.6333332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Indexus.ism.serv.ordersback61.155.70.09694790.316811.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Ordersus.ism.serv.newexp6058.60.02389080.4457831.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Indexus.ism.serv.invsent40.546.8-0.134615-0.264973-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Indexus.consconfidence117.2117.5-0.002553190.3643771.01.00.9833332021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board indexus.lei113.3111.50.01614350.1692471.01.012021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Boardus.cei104.1103.80.002890170.1193551.01.012021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Boardus.lagging104.7102.80.0184825-0.0935065-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexus.cesi1342.25-0.835443-1.0-1.00.3166672021-06-04
Build Permits United Statesus.us.buildingpermits176017550.0028490.6087751.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Indexus.ecri.leading159.5159.10.002514140.05629141.01.00.7166672021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Indexus.ecri.coincident195.5194.50.005141390.1949881.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Indexus.ecri.lagging213.8212.80.00469925-0.06310251.0-1.00.08333332021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Indexus.uomconfexp82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Indexus.uomconfcur97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master IIus.baml.ushi3.283.280-0.0352941-1.0-1.00.2333332021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spreadus.baml.ccc6.316.32-0.00158228-0.0322086-1.0-1.00.152021-06-04
Federal Funds Rateus.fedfunds0.090.0900UPDown602021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Indexus.10city.caseshiller248.14244.2581.597.54UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Indexus.20city.caseshiller235.46231.7151.617.93UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Countsus.20city.caseshiller180935194048-6.7617.31UPUP91.672021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparelism.breadth.apparel1351.63.333331.01.00.9833332021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Productsism.breadth.confuter611-0.454545-1.6-1.01.00.1916672021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodationnmi.breadth.accomodation1317-0.235294-2.444441.01.00.08333332021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturingus.ny.empire.state.manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Indexus.dalls.fed.services52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Indexus.chicago.pmi52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturingus.richmond.fed.manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturingus.kansas.fed.manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturingus.dalls.fed.manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturingus.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing-12.3-3.3272.73-156.16DownDown6.672022-07-21
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)CDFI1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)CBCF1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSECBFI1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCFSCFI4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCFCCFI3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06

United States jobless claims analysis

US Jobless claims is one of the best leading indicators of the US economy. Initial and Continuing jobless claims of unemployment insurance are reported every Thursday morning for the previous week. 

Initial Jobless Claims of unemployment insurance are the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time (new claims). 

Continuing claims of unemployment insurance are the number of people in long-term unemployment.

When the US economy expands which is monitored using leading indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing and the US ISM Non-manufacturing reports, companies hire more employees which will reduce the number of initial and continuing jobless claims reported.

MacroVar monitors the four-week average of Jobless claims to smooth out the series. Jobless claims lead nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate as presented below. Most importantly, jobless claims should also be compared with market indicators like the US yield curve. In the image below it can be clearly observed that the US yield curve represented by the spread between US 2-year treasury rate and 5-year treasury rate has historically inverted before economic recessions several months before US jobless claims rolled over and started expanding.

United States jobless claims trend

United States jobless claims trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the United States jobless claims has recorded new highs or lows. United States jobless claims trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

United States jobless claims momentum

United States jobless claims momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.