Chile Economy

15 October 2020

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Chile News

Chile Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
IPSA Select (IPSA) IPSA 4274.26 0 0.75 0.45334 57.1841 1.8 -0.47 -11.76 -0.10534
Chile Capped ETF ECH 28.21 1 0.75 1.76689 76.1933 3.3 -2.01 -18.84 -0.05157
Chilean Peso US Dollar (CLP/USD) CLPUSD 752.71 -1 -1 -2.33613 24.3749 1.02 2.24 8.1 -0.08334
Chile 10-year bond yield CL.10Y 4.39 -0.5 -0.25 -0.10402 38.2568 -6.4 -0.23 21.94 -0.11041
Chile 2-year bond yield CL.2Y 2.12 0 0.5 -0.34911 55.5391 -7.02 46.21 194.44 -0.72021
Chile Yield Curve CL.YC 2.27 -0.5 0 0.44415 38.9199 -5.81 -23.05 -20.91 0.79528
Chile Credit Default Swaps CDS.Chile 66.5 -1 -0.75 -0.99467 36.8075 3.91 5.56 29.13 0.09243

Chile Economy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 0.3 -9 -1.03333 -0.884615 1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2020-11-30
unemployment rate 10 10.2 -0.0196078 -0.107143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 33 27.9 0.182796 5.73469 1.0 1.0 0 2018-03-28
external debt 216184 214849 0.00621367 0.044877 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31
foreign exchange reserves 44952.3 47953.1 -0.0625778 0.20521 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 0.25 0.25 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.525 2019-04-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1554 503.177 -4.08838 0.376183 1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2020-11-30
current account to gdp 1.4 -3.9 -1.35897 -1.34146 1.0 1.0 0 2019-02-28
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 -0.714286 -1.0 -1.0 0.141667 2021-02-28
central bank balance sheet 49532 50282 -0.0149159 1.16363 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31
money supply m2 166429 165150 0.00774447 0.0793131 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-06-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -3347280 1411000 -3.37227 0.222487 -1.0 -1.0 0.616667 2021-05-31
government revenues 2991150 6817230 -0.561237 1.70045 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 6338430 5406230 0.172431 0.648178 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Chile Economic analysis

Analyzes table above + combine text with economic analysis (short / detailed) > link to specific sections, mention ESI sector analsysi

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Chile Business activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 54.33 54.88 -0.0100219 0.456568 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30

Chile Consumer activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
total vehicle sales 27241 32511 -0.162099 2.05872 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
consumer confidence 24.9 29.2 -0.14726 0.152778 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-30

Chile Manufacturing activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
industrial production 3.5 5 -0.3 -1.58333 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -1.3 0.1 -14 -0.5 -1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31

Chile GDP

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 38997.7 37780.6 0.0322149 0.0242741 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2020-11-30
gdp growth annual 0.3 -9 -1.03333 -0.884615 1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2020-11-30

Chile inflation

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
core inflation rate 3.1 2.8 0.107143 0.47619 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
consumer price index cpi 108.88 108.79 0.000827282 0.0380399 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 155.98 146.81 0.0624617 0.344076 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 34.4 25.4 0.354331 37.2222 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Chile Government Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -7.1 -1.6 3.4375 -2.48536 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-02-28
Government budget -3347280 1411000 -3.37227 0.222487 -1.0 -1.0 0.616667 2021-05-31
government revenues 2991150 6817230 -0.561237 1.70045 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 6338430 5406230 0.172431 0.648178 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Chile Monetary Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 -0.714286 -1.0 -1.0 0.141667 2021-02-28
central bank balance sheet 49532 50282 -0.0149159 1.16363 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31
money supply m1 79243.5 77008.4 0.0290241 0.539091 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-06-30
money supply m2 166429 165150 0.00774447 0.0793131 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-06-30
money supply m3 280147 276925 0.0116349 0.0550802 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-06-30

Chile Employment

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 10 10.2 -0.0196078 -0.107143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31

Chile Trade & Capital Flows

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1554 503.177 -4.08838 0.376183 1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2020-11-30
current account to gdp 1.4 -3.9 -1.35897 -1.34146 1.0 1.0 0 2019-02-28
exports 7445 7920 -0.0599747 0.215052 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
imports 6350 6606 -0.0387526 0.61795 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
balance of trade 1095 1314 -0.166667 -0.502856 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-06-30

Chile Reserves

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 44952.3 47953.1 -0.0625778 0.20521 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 0.25 0.25 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.525 2019-04-01

Chile Debt

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 33 27.9 0.182796 5.73469 1.0 1.0 0 2018-03-28
external debt 216184 214849 0.00621367 0.044877 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31

Chile Banking activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.35 0.27 0.296296 0.25 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-01
deposit interest rate 0.86 2.53 -0.660079 -0.88518 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-01
bank lending rate 5.19 4.8 0.08125 0.133188 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
loans to private sector 117229 116292 0.0080573 -0.0442613 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
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