Nikkei 225 Index
Nikkei 225 closed down by -3.71% to 27548.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-4.6% on a weekly basis. Nikkei 225 momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Nikkei 225 trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Nikkei 225 momentum exhaustion is 2.09239 indicating Nikkei 225 is oversold.Nikkei 225 RSI is 70.8645 .
Nikkei 225 Index Chart
Nikkei 225 Index Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Nikkei 225. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Nikkei 225 trading signals presented in the Nikkei 225 statistics table.
Nikkei 225 closed at 27548.0 on 23 January 2021. Nikkei 225 trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Nikkei 225 momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Nikkei 225 momentum exhaustion is 2.09239 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Nikkei 225 is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Nikkei 225 RSI was last calculated at 70.8645. Nikkei 225 moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 26770.8 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 25295.4 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 22745.2 in an uptrend. Nikkei 225 annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -3.71%, and weekly return was last recorded at -4.6%. Nikkei 225 histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 12.6035%, Nikkei 225 alpha None, Nikkei 225 beta None and Nikkei 225 maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Nikkei 225 statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Nikkei 225 Index News
Nikkei 225 Factors
Nikkei 225 related Indicators
|Japan ETF||Stock Index ETF||EWJ||67.53||1||1||2.02852||63.1726||-1.77||-0.75||-1.9||0.13415|
|Japan PMI vs Stocks||Stock Index vs PMI Factor||JP.FACT.STPMI||26787.5|
|Japanese Yen US Dollar (JPY/USD)||JPYUSD||110.29||-1||-1||-1.71679||40.3032||0.3||-0.59||1.56||-0.06052|
|Japan 5-Year Bond Yield||JP.5Y||-0.13||1||-0.25||0.22604||52.5548||7.44||35.42||28.71||-0.02679|
|Japan 2-year bond yield||JP2Y||-0.13||0||0.75||0.79658||57.1808||3.17||18.18||0||0.02479|
|Japan Yield Curve||JP.YC||0.14||0||-0.75||-0.29978||46.3161||-4.76||-15.66||-34.88||0.45545|
Japan Economic Indicators
|balance of trade||383.18||-189.4||-3.02313||-2.40406||1.0||1.0||0.216667||2021-06-30|
|bank lending rate||1||1.05||-0.047619||0.0526316||1.0||1.0||0.858333||2020-08-31|
|central bank balance sheet||716901||724641||-0.0106812||0.104716||1.0||1.0||0.5||2021-06-30|
|consumer price index cpi||101.9||101.7||0.00196657||0.00196657||1.0||1.0||0.308333||2021-06-30|
|core inflation rate||0.2||0.1||1||-2||1.0||1.0||0.275||2021-06-30|
|current account to gdp||3.2||3.6||-0.111111||0.142857||1.0||1.0||0||2019-02-28|
|deposit interest rate||-0.11||-0.15||-0.266667||-0.266667||1.0||1.0||0.05||2021-03-19|
|foreign direct investment||10999.8||23444.1||-0.530807||0.0253356||1.0||1.0||0.566667||2021-05-31|
|foreign exchange reserves||1376480||1387500||-0.00794234||-0.0048583||-1.0||-1.0||0.183333||2021-06-30|
|gdp growth annual||-1.6||-1.1||0.454545||-1.64||-1.0||-1.0||0.25||2021-01-30|
|gdp growth annualized||-3.9||11.7||-1.33333||-3.4375||-1.0||-1.0||0.2||2021-01-01|
|government debt to gdp||266.2||238||0.118487||0.452264||1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|industrial production mom||-6.5||2.9||-3.24138||-0.380952||-1.0||1.0||0.6||2021-05-31|
|loans to private sector||501460||501954||-0.000984154||0.00743735||1.0||1.0||0.0166667||2021-06-30|
|money supply m0||110397||110412||-0.000135855||0.0387862||1.0||1.0||0.366667||2021-06-30|
|money supply m1||973908||975216||-0.00134124||0.0882639||1.0||1.0||0.7||2021-06-30|
|money supply m2||1169650||1168040||0.00137838||0.058938||1.0||1.0||0.8||2021-06-30|
|money supply m3||1512570||1508490||0.00270469||0.0514984||1.0||1.0||0.8||2021-06-30|
|non manufacturing pmi||1||-1||-2||-0.958333||-1.0||-1.0||0.383333||2021-04-01|
|Producer Price Index||104.6||103.9||0.00673725||0.0502008||1.0||1.0||1||2021-06-30|
|retail sales MoM||-4.5||1.2||-4.75||0.5||-1.0||-1.0||0.8||2021-04-30|
|youth unemployment rate||4.3||4.8||-0.104167||-0.104167||-1.0||-1.0||0.35||2021-04-30|
|Long Term Unemployment Rate||1.3||1.7||-0.235294||0||-1.0||-1.0||0||2014-01-01|
|Bank of Japan Total Assets for Japan||7246410||7202320||0.00612164||0.134748||1.0||1.0||0.583333||2021-05-01|
|Japan, TANKAN, Small firms, manufacturing||-13||-27||-0.518519||-1.86667||-1.0||-1.0||0.35||2021-03-30|
|Japan, TANKAN, Small firms, non-manufacturing||-11||-12||-0.0833333||-2.1||-1.0||-1.0||0.1||2021-03-31|
|Japan, TANKAN, Large firms, manufacturing, actual, Price Index||5||-10||-1.5||-0.8||1.0||-1.0||0.466667||2021-03-31|
|Japan, TANKAN, Large firms, non manufacturing, actual||-1||-5||-0.8||-1.04348||-1.0||-1.0||0.383333||2021-03-31|
|Japan Machine Tool Orders||123946||127876||-0.0307329||1.20768||1.0||1.0||1||2021-04-30|
Nikkei 225 Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: Nikkei 225 momentum, Nikkei 225 trend, Nikkei 225 oscillator, Nikkei 225 RSI and Nikkei 225 returns.
Nikkei 225 MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarNikkei 225 momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Nikkei 225 momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Nikkei 225. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Nikkei 225 return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Nikkei 225 Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Nikkei 225 momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Nikkei 225 trendNikkei 225 trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Nikkei 225 trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Nikkei 225 Closing price vs Nikkei 225 moving average (MA) calculation: If Nikkei 225 is greater than Nikkei 225 MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Nikkei 225 Moving average slope calculation: if current Nikkei 225 moving average is higher than the previous MA, Nikkei 225 upward slope +1, else -1
Nikkei 225 trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Nikkei 225 trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Nikkei 225 trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Nikkei 225 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Nikkei 225 is in an uptrend when Nikkei 225 price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Nikkei 225 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Nikkei 225 oscillator and Nikkei 225 RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Nikkei 225 oscillatorThe Nikkei 225 oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Nikkei 225 price versus Nikkei 225 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Nikkei 225 oscillator is:
Nikkei 225 oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Nikkei 225 simple moving average price) / (250 days Nikkei 225 price standard deviation)
Nikkei 225 oversold conditions
Nikkei 225 is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Nikkei 225 is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Nikkei 225 oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Nikkei 225 oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Nikkei 225 quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Nikkei 225 RSI.
Nikkei 225 overbought conditions
Nikkei 225 is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Nikkei 225 is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Nikkei 225 oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Nikkei 225 quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Nikkei 225 RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Nikkei 225 is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Nikkei 225 uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Nikkei 225 returnsMacroVar calculates Nikkei 225 returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Nikkei 225 returns = (Nikkei 225 Closing Price – Nikkei 225 Previous Price)/(Nikkei 225 Previous Price)