Nikkei 225 Index

Nikkei 225 closed down by -3.71% to 27548.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-4.6% on a weekly basis. Nikkei 225 momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Nikkei 225 trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Nikkei 225 momentum exhaustion is 2.09239 indicating Nikkei 225 is oversold.Nikkei 225 RSI is 70.8645 .

Nikkei 225 Index Chart

Nikkei 225 Index

Nikkei 225 Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Nikkei 225. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Nikkei 225 trading signals presented in the Nikkei 225 statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Nikkei 225 NIKKEI 27548 0.5 1 2.09239 70.8645 -3.71 -4.6 -5.62 0.14037

Nikkei 225 closed at 27548.0 on 23 January 2021. Nikkei 225 trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Nikkei 225 momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Nikkei 225 momentum exhaustion is 2.09239 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Nikkei 225 is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Nikkei 225 RSI was last calculated at 70.8645. Nikkei 225 moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 26770.8 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 25295.4 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 22745.2 in an uptrend. Nikkei 225 annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -3.71%, and weekly return was last recorded at -4.6%. Nikkei 225 histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 12.6035%, Nikkei 225 alpha None, Nikkei 225 beta None and Nikkei 225 maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Nikkei 225 statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Nikkei 225 Index News

Nikkei 225 Factors

Nikkei 225

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Japan PMI vs Stocks JP.FACT.STPMI 26787.5 53.8505 0.407568

Nikkei 225 related Indicators

Nikkei 225

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Japan ETF Stock Index ETF EWJ 67.53 1 1 2.02852 63.1726 -1.77 -0.75 -1.9 0.13415
Nikkei Volatility Volatility JNIV 21.85 1 0 -0.56825 50.6238 22.27 14.88 12.17 0.486
Japan PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor JP.FACT.STPMI 26787.5
Nikkei seasonality Seasonality SEAS.NIKKEI

Japan Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Nikkei 225 NIKKEI 27548 0.5 1 2.09239 70.8645 -3.71 -4.6 -5.62 0.14037
Japan ETF EWJ 67.53 1 1 2.02852 63.1726 -1.77 -0.75 -1.9 0.13415
Japanese Yen US Dollar (JPY/USD) JPYUSD 110.29 -1 -1 -1.71679 40.3032 0.3 -0.59 1.56 -0.06052
Japan 5-Year Bond Yield JP.5Y -0.13 1 -0.25 0.22604 52.5548 7.44 35.42 28.71 -0.02679
Japan 2-year bond yield JP2Y -0.13 0 0.75 0.79658 57.1808 3.17 18.18 0 0.02479
Japan Yield Curve JP.YC 0.14 0 -0.75 -0.29978 46.3161 -4.76 -15.66 -34.88 0.45545

Japan Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 383.18 -189.4 -3.02313 -2.40406 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-06-30
bank lending rate 1 1.05 -0.047619 0.0526316 1.0 1.0 0.858333 2020-08-31
business confidence 14 5 1.8 -0.416667 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
capacity utilization 96.5 99.3 -0.0281974 0.370739 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
capital flows 27018 -2394 -12.2857 3.28245 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
car registrations 724641 720232 0.00612164 0.134748 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
central bank balance sheet 716901 724641 -0.0106812 0.104716 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-06-30
composite pmi 48.9 48.8 0.00204918 0.198529 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
consumer confidence 37.4 34.1 0.0967742 0.316901 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 101.9 101.7 0.00196657 0.00196657 1.0 1.0 0.308333 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 0.2 0.1 1 -2 1.0 1.0 0.275 2021-06-30
current account 1979.7 1321.8 0.49773 0.852836 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 3.2 3.6 -0.111111 0.142857 1.0 1.0 0 2019-02-28
deposit interest rate -0.11 -0.15 -0.266667 -0.266667 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-03-19
exports 7220.79 6261.28 0.153245 0.485041 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
external debt 518941 495234 0.0478703 0.253644 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01
foreign direct investment 10999.8 23444.1 -0.530807 0.0253356 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-05-31
foreign exchange reserves 1376480 1387500 -0.00794234 -0.0048583 -1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-06-30
gdp 5064.87 4954.81 0.0222128 0.121723 -1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 534274 542688 -0.0155043 0.00136258 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2020-11-01
gdp growth -1 2.8 -1.35714 -2.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-03-31
gdp growth annual -1.6 -1.1 0.454545 -1.64 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-01-30
gdp growth annualized -3.9 11.7 -1.33333 -3.4375 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-01-01
gold reserves 845.97 765.22 0.105525 0.105554 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01
government budget -10.3 -3.1 2.32258 1.86111 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -13977 -98404 -0.857963 -1.26117 1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 266.2 238 0.118487 0.452264 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
housing index 119.32 118.3 0.00862215 0.0268503 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-03-31
housing starts 9.9 7.1 0.394366 -1.825 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-05-31
imports 6837.61 6448.42 0.0603543 0.331502 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
industrial production 21.1 15.8 0.335443 -1.78148 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -6.5 2.9 -3.24138 -0.380952 -1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 0.2 -0.1 -3 1 1.0 1.0 0.841667 2021-06-30
interbank rate -0.1 -0.09 0.111111 0.428571 -1.0 -1.0 1 2021-06-04
interest rate -0.1 -0.1 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2021-04-27
loan growth 1.4 2.9 -0.517241 -0.777778 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-30
loans to private sector 501460 501954 -0.000984154 0.00743735 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-30
machinery orders 7.8 0.6 12 3.58824 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
manufacturing pmi 52.4 53 -0.0113208 0.306733 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
money supply m0 110397 110412 -0.000135855 0.0387862 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-06-30
money supply m1 973908 975216 -0.00134124 0.0882639 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-06-30
money supply m2 1169650 1168040 0.00137838 0.058938 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
money supply m3 1512570 1508490 0.00270469 0.0514984 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
non manufacturing pmi 1 -1 -2 -0.958333 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Producer Price Index 104.6 103.9 0.00673725 0.0502008 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
PPI Index 5 5.1 -0.0196078 -4.125 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30
retail sales MoM -4.5 1.2 -4.75 0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.8 2021-04-30
retail sales 8.2 11.9 -0.310924 -1.656 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
services pmi 48 46.5 0.0322581 0.0666667 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 3 2.8 0.0714286 0.0714286 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 4.3 4.8 -0.104167 -0.104167 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-30
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.3 1.7 -0.235294 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2014-01-01
Bank of Japan Total Assets for Japan 7246410 7202320 0.00612164 0.134748 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-01
Japan, TANKAN, Small firms, manufacturing -13 -27 -0.518519 -1.86667 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-03-30
Japan, TANKAN, Small firms, non-manufacturing -11 -12 -0.0833333 -2.1 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-03-31
Japan, TANKAN, Large firms, manufacturing, actual, Price Index 5 -10 -1.5 -0.8 1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-03-31
Japan, TANKAN, Large firms, non manufacturing, actual -1 -5 -0.8 -1.04348 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-03-31
Japan Machine Tool Orders 123946 127876 -0.0307329 1.20768 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30

Nikkei 225 Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Nikkei 225 momentum, Nikkei 225 trend, Nikkei 225 oscillator, Nikkei 225 RSI and Nikkei 225 returns.

Nikkei 225 Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarNikkei 225 momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Nikkei 225 momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Nikkei 225. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Nikkei 225 return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Nikkei 225 Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Nikkei 225 momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Nikkei 225 trend

Nikkei 225 trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Nikkei 225 trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Nikkei 225 Closing price vs Nikkei 225 moving average (MA) calculation: If Nikkei 225 is greater than Nikkei 225 MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Nikkei 225 Moving average slope calculation: if current Nikkei 225 moving average is higher than the previous MA, Nikkei 225 upward slope +1, else -1
Nikkei 225 trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Nikkei 225 trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Nikkei 225 trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Nikkei 225 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Nikkei 225 is in an uptrend when Nikkei 225 price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Nikkei 225 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Nikkei 225 oscillator and Nikkei 225 RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Nikkei 225 oscillator

The Nikkei 225 oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Nikkei 225 price versus Nikkei 225 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Nikkei 225 oscillator is:
Nikkei 225 oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Nikkei 225 simple moving average price) / (250 days Nikkei 225 price standard deviation)

Nikkei 225 oversold conditions
Nikkei 225 is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Nikkei 225 is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Nikkei 225 oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Nikkei 225 oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Nikkei 225 quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Nikkei 225 RSI.
Nikkei 225 overbought conditions
Nikkei 225 is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Nikkei 225 is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Nikkei 225 oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Nikkei 225 quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Nikkei 225 RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Nikkei 225 is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Nikkei 225 uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Nikkei 225 returns

MacroVar calculates Nikkei 225 returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Nikkei 225 returns = (Nikkei 225 Closing Price – Nikkei 225 Previous Price)/(Nikkei 225 Previous Price)
Feedback
Feedback
How would you rate your experience?
Do you have any additional comment?
Next
Enter your email if you'd like us to contact you regarding with your feedback.
Back
Submit
Thank you for submitting your feedback!