Peru Economy

15 October 2020

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

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Peru Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Bolsa de Valores de Lima SAA (BVL) BVL 18743 0.5 1 1.05251 75.2725 1.05 0.1 -2.3 0.05902
Peru Capped ETF EPU 28.67 1 0.75 1.449 67.1336 0.56 2.28 -10.07 -0.04083
Peru Sol US Dollar (PEN/USD) PENUSD 0.25 0 0.75 1.13806 48.0202 -0.64 -0.48 -5.7 0.08707
Peru Credit Default Swaps CDS.Peru 53.25 -1 -0.75 -0.81011 36.4347 -4.91 -17.44 -11.25 0.31373

Peru Economy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 3.8 -1.7 -3.23529 0.225806 1.0 1.0 0.7 2020-11-01
unemployment rate 15.1 15.3 -0.0130719 0.677778 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 35.4 27.1 0.306273 0.268817 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 93271 88382 0.0553167 0.237016 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01
foreign exchange reserves 71920 73120 -0.0164114 0.00626819 -1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 34.68 34.7 -0.000576369 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.441667 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1816.15 1257.03 -2.44479 0.310637 -1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 0.7 -1.2 -1.58333 -1.16129 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.25 1.25 -0.8 -0.909091 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-16
money supply m2 297663 306713 -0.0295064 0.227871 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-04-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -1597.21 -508.03 2.14393 -0.469471 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-06-30
government revenues 11050.5 11901.9 -0.0715348 0.800489 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 10032.9 9892.2 0.0142233 0.32872 -1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-06-30

Peru Economic analysis

Analyzes table above + combine text with economic analysis (short / detailed) > link to specific sections, mention ESI sector analsysi

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Peru Business activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 51.2 44.2 0.158371 1.34862 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31

Peru Consumer activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 90 95 -0.0526316 0.0465116 -1.0 1.0 0.7 2019-08-31

Peru Manufacturing activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
industrial production 113.38 50.22 1.25767 -3.12708 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-30
capacity utilization 32.08 36.64 -0.124454 0.0704037 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2016-01-31

Peru GDP

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 127706 141188 -0.0954897 0.0261301 -1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2020-11-01
gdp growth annual 3.8 -1.7 -3.23529 0.225806 1.0 1.0 0.7 2020-11-01

Peru inflation

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
core inflation rate 2.01 1.82 0.104396 0.161111 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 138.23 137.52 0.00516289 0.0325689 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 115.86 114.61 0.0109066 0.0713889 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Peru Government Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -8.9 -2.7 2.2963 -4.56 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-02-28
Government budget -1597.21 -508.03 2.14393 -0.469471 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-06-30
government revenues 11050.5 11901.9 -0.0715348 0.800489 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 10032.9 9892.2 0.0142233 0.32872 -1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-06-30

Peru Monetary Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.25 1.25 -0.8 -0.909091 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-16
money supply m0 75900 75990 -0.00118437 0.308959 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-04-30
money supply m1 148026 152386 -0.0286116 0.321095 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-04-30
money supply m2 297663 306713 -0.0295064 0.227871 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-04-30

Peru Employment

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 15.1 15.3 -0.0130719 0.677778 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31

Peru Trade & Capital Flows

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1816.15 1257.03 -2.44479 0.310637 -1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 0.7 -1.2 -1.58333 -1.16129 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 4802.8 4512.2 0.0644032 1.39183 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 3987.8 3982.4 0.00135597 0.810086 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
balance of trade 815 423.9 0.922623 -5.1752 -1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31

Peru Reserves

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 71920 73120 -0.0164114 0.00626819 -1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 34.68 34.7 -0.000576369 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.441667 2020-07-01

Peru Debt

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 35.4 27.1 0.306273 0.268817 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 93271 88382 0.0553167 0.237016 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01

Peru Banking activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.68 0.68 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 1.86 3.67 -0.493188 -0.658716 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
bank lending rate 0.63 0.64 -0.015625 -0.0479069 -1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-06-30
loans to private sector 247265 243348 0.0160963 0.0808407 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
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