South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) closed up by 0.63% to 14.57 on 23 January 2021 and +2.5% on a weekly basis. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 indicating negative momentum. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend is -75.0/100 indicating a negative trend. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.49972 indicating South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is oversold.South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI is 39.1807 .

South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD Chart

South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD

South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD). Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trading signals presented in the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) ZARUSD 14.57 -0.5 -0.75 -1.49972 39.1807 0.63 2.5 2.39 0.02077

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) closed at 14.57 on 23 January 2021. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend was last calculated at -75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.49972 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI was last calculated at 39.1807. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 14.7816 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 15.4714 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 16.5452 in an uptrend. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 0.63%, and weekly return was last recorded at 2.5%. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 9.71624%, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) alpha None, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) beta None and South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) statistics based on historical data since 1970.

South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD News

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Factors

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD)

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
South Africa PMI vs FX SA.FACT.FXPMI 16.1929 51.2215 -0.508777

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) related Indicators

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD)

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND Implied Volatility FX Implied Volatility ZARUSD.IV 14.37 0.5 0.75 0.17807 65.2053 -2.44 4.66 4.13 0.46623
South Africa PMI vs FX FX vs PMI Factor SA.FACT.FXPMI 16.1929

South Africa Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
FTSE/JSE Top 40 JTOPI 60502.4 0 0.75 1.22422 56.7516 -2.03 1.24 -2.16 0.04909
South Africa ETF EZA 47.68 0 0.25 1.00217 52.0663 -2.03 -1.28 -6.05 -0.09568
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) ZARUSD 14.57 -0.5 -0.75 -1.49972 39.1807 0.63 2.5 2.39 0.02077
South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield ZA.10Y 8.95 -1 -0.75 -0.99626 36.539 -0.06 0.67 -2.93 0.04903
South Africa 5-Year Bond Yield ZA.5Y 7.5 -1 -1 -1.19368 26.5247 -0.92 1.21 2.74 -0.18613
South Africa 2-Year Bond Yield SA.2Y 5.18 -1 -0.75 -0.88899 40.2687 -0.19 0 9.51 -0.33005
South Africa Yield Curve SA.YC 3.78 0 -0.25 0.15664 45.17 0.4 1.89 -16.46 1.70701
South Africa Credit Default Swaps CDS.South-Africa 201 -1 -0.75 -1.023 38.4864 2.03 8.06 -5.63 0.29898

South Africa Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 11828.6 33064.8 -0.64226 -5.37853 -1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-01-31
bank lending rate 7 7.25 -0.0344828 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-07-31
banks balance sheet 6490710 6429640 0.0094982 -0.00808422 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-05-31
business confidence 50 35 0.428571 0.25 1.0 1.0 0.875 2021-03-01
capacity utilization 74.6 78.1 -0.0448143 -0.0824108 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-01-01
car registrations 24482 24122 0.0149241 0.27977 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
central bank balance sheet 886166 846974 0.046273 -0.126956 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-06-30
composite pmi 51 53.2 -0.0413534 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
consumer confidence -13 -9 0.444444 -1.59091 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
consumer price index cpi 120.2 120.1 0.000832639 0.0516185 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
core inflation rate 3.1 3 0.0333333 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
current account 267348 197818 0.351485 -2.21854 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-03-01
current account to gdp 2.2 -3 -1.73333 -1.30556 1.0 1.0 0 2019-02-28
deposit interest rate 3.77 3.74 0.00802139 -0.281905 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-30
exports 161473 168286 -0.0404847 2.12614 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-30
external debt 164726 170836 -0.0357653 -0.101032 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 114102 160210 -0.287797 -0.0465519 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-05-31
foreign direct investment 6138 16010 -0.616615 -0.341699 -1.0 -1.0 0.483333 2021-01-31
foreign exchange reserves 54473 54139 0.0061693 0.0411506 -1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-06-30
gdp 351.432 368.289 -0.0457711 0.173729 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 2933980 2578670 0.137788 -0.0637778 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-09-01
gdp growth 4.6 5.8 -0.206897 -2.7037 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -3.2 -4.2 -0.238095 -3.28571 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01
gold reserves 125.35 125.31 0.000319208 0.000558748 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2020-08-01
government budget -12.3 -6.7 0.835821 11.3 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -17928 -74457 -0.759217 -0.65325 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-05-31
government debt 76176 78295 -0.0270643 -0.0602633 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 83 62.2 0.334405 1.98561 1.0 1.0 0 2019-02-28
government revenues 96174 85754 0.12151 0.414948 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
housing index 544.475 539.711 0.00882695 0.0917799 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2016-11-30
imports 110230 115517 -0.0457682 0.25217 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-30
industrial production 35.3 88.1 -0.599319 -2.09288 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -2.6 -1.2 1.16667 -1.09286 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 5.2 4.4 0.181818 1.47619 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
interbank rate 3.68 3.68 0 0.0027248 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-06-02
interest rate 3.5 3.5 0 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-05-20
loans to private sector 3986900 3958370 0.00720751 -0.00694434 1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-05-31
manufacturing pmi 57.4 57.8 -0.00692042 0.0649351 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30
money supply m0 294734 286346 0.0292932 0.0386552 -1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-06-30
money supply m1 2231700 2196440 0.0160533 0.0859431 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 3447480 3465050 -0.00507063 0.0368361 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 4142360 4111730 0.00744942 0.0170342 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
Producer Price Index 103.9 103.5 0.00386473 0.0744571 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 7.4 6.7 0.104478 23.6667 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 2.1 -0.6 -4.5 -1.04251 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
retail sales 15.8 95.7 -0.834901 -2.32773 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-05-31
total vehicle sales 38030 38337 -0.00800793 0.201884 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 32.6 32.5 0.00307692 0.220974 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
youth unemployment rate 63.3 63.2 0.00158228 0.208015 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
Lending Rate 10 10 0 -0.0243902 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI and South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) returns.

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarSouth African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD). The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. South African Rand US Dollar ZAR/USD momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Closing price vs South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) moving average (MA) calculation: If South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is greater than South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) MA value is +1, else -1, 2. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Moving average slope calculation: if current South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) moving average is higher than the previous MA, South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) upward slope +1, else -1
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is in an uptrend when South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator and South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator

The South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) price versus South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator is:
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) simple moving average price) / (250 days South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) price standard deviation)

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oversold conditions
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI.
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) overbought conditions
South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) returns

MacroVar calculates South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) returns = (South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Closing Price – South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Previous Price)/(South African Rand US Dollar (ZAR/USD) Previous Price)
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