HNX Index

HNX closed up by 1.33% to 300.8 on 23 January 2021 and +-4.75% on a weekly basis. HNX momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. HNX trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. HNX momentum exhaustion is 0.65308 indicating HNX is oversold.HNX RSI is 94.9873 .

HNX Index Chart

HNX Index

HNX Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the HNX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the HNX trading signals presented in the HNX statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
HNX HNX 300.8 1 1 0.65308 94.9873 1.33 -4.75 7.17 1.16685

HNX closed at 300.8 on 23 January 2021. HNX trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. HNX momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. HNX momentum exhaustion is 0.65308 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating HNX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. HNX RSI was last calculated at 94.9873. HNX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 190.516 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 159.884 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 139.62 in an uptrend. HNX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 1.33%, and weekly return was last recorded at -4.75%. HNX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 19.1333%, HNX alpha None, HNX beta None and HNX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor HNX statistics based on historical data since 1970.

HNX Index News

HNX Factors

HNX

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Vietnam PMI vs Stocks VN.FACT.STPMI 136.87 54.394 1.37974

HNX related Indicators

HNX

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Vietnam ETF Stock Index ETF VNM 19.24 1 1 2.24469 79.7604 -0.05 -4.52 0.73 0.1197
Vietnam PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor VN.FACT.STPMI 136.87

Vietnam Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
HNX HNX 300.8 1 1 0.65308 94.9873 1.33 -4.75 7.17 1.16685
Vietnam ETF VNM 19.24 1 1 2.24469 79.7604 -0.05 -4.52 0.73 0.1197
Vietnamese Dong US Dollar (VND/USD) VNDUSD 23024 -1 -1 -1.34953 19.0984 0.05 0 -0.1 -0.00414
Vietnam 5-Year Bond Yield VN.5Y 1.01 0 -0.25 -1.25619 59.6097 -6.39 -10.22 -11.94 -0.37943
Vietnam 2-year bond yield VN.2Y 0.57 -1 -1 -1.15129 24.4226 -15.18 -14.03 6.34 -0.80027
Vietnam Yield Curve VN.YC 1.5 1 0.75 0.63456 65.5307 4.97 -1.06 -15.59 0.34087

Vietnam Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade -2 1.2 -2.66667 -2.9802 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-05-31
capital flows 309 1241 -0.751007 -0.887226 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-04-01
car registrations 26409 29036 -0.0904739 1.44166 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
consumer confidence 117 126 -0.0714286 0.0446429 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-04-01
consumer price index cpi 104.68 104.52 0.00153081 -0.100919 1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-31
core inflation rate 1.13 0.95 0.189474 -0.555118 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-31
current account 8368 -323 -26.9071 0.946047 1.0 1.0 0 2020-05-01
current account to gdp 5 2.4 1.08333 -1.55556 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
deposit interest rate 4.12 4.98 -0.172691 -0.676355 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-01
exports 25.5 29.125 -0.124464 0.450512 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-30
external debt 108118 112114 -0.0356423 3.68632 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
fiscal expenditure 1754520 1616410 0.0854424 4.04944 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
foreign direct investment 7.15 5.5 0.3 0.0671642 -1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-05-01
foreign exchange reserves 97708.7 97023.9 0.00705805 0.21015 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-02-28
gdp 261.92 245.21 0.0681457 2.38354 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 1189220 3847180 -0.690885 0.866193 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-09-01
gdp growth 6.88 6.73 0.0222883 0 1.0 -1.0 0 2018-10-01
gdp growth annual 4.48 2.69 0.665428 -0.414379 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2020-10-01
government budget -4.4 -3.5 0.257143 3.88889 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
Government budget -203441 -191500 0.0623551 17.1725 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
government debt to gdp 46.7 43.5 0.0735632 0.506452 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
government revenues 1551070 1424910 0.0885389 3.61253 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
imports 28 27.78 0.00791937 0.540154 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
industrial production 11.6 22.2 -0.477477 -4.74194 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 2.9 2.7 0.0740741 0.208333 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-05-31
interbank rate 1.59 1.59 0 0.272 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-18
interest rate 4 4.5 -0.111111 -0.36 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-06-12
manufacturing pmi 53.1 54.7 -0.0292505 0.24356 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
money supply m0 1198100 1085020 0.104219 4.43322 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
money supply m1 2456660 2174030 0.130003 4.54014 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
money supply m2 10573700 9211850 0.147837 6.84259 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Producer Price Index 100.27 99.22 0.0105825 0.0293604 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-09-01
retail sales MoM 5.4 1.6 2.375 1.57143 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2020-09-30
retail sales yoy -1 30.9 -1.03236 -0.791667 -1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
unemployment rate 2.37 2.5 -0.052 0.0723982 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-01
youth unemployment rate 6.98 7.01 -0.0042796 -0.0899609 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-04-01

HNX Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: HNX momentum, HNX trend, HNX oscillator, HNX RSI and HNX returns.

HNX Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarHNX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The HNX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the HNX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. HNX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. HNX Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when HNX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

HNX trend

HNX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. HNX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. HNX Closing price vs HNX moving average (MA) calculation: If HNX is greater than HNX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. HNX Moving average slope calculation: if current HNX moving average is higher than the previous MA, HNX upward slope +1, else -1
HNX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. HNX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when HNX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The HNX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. HNX is in an uptrend when HNX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the HNX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the HNX oscillator and HNX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

HNX oscillator

The HNX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current HNX price versus HNX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the HNX oscillator is:
HNX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days HNX simple moving average price) / (250 days HNX price standard deviation)

HNX oversold conditions
HNX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the HNX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the HNX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the HNX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of HNX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the HNX RSI.
HNX overbought conditions
HNX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the HNX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the HNX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the HNX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

HNX RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when HNX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During HNX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

HNX returns

MacroVar calculates HNX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

HNX returns = (HNX Closing Price – HNX Previous Price)/(HNX Previous Price)
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