Bovespa Index

Bovespa closed down by -1.93% to 125929.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-2.2% on a weekly basis. Bovespa momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Bovespa trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Bovespa momentum exhaustion is 1.47509 indicating Bovespa is oversold.Bovespa RSI is 69.8042 .

Bovespa Index Chart

Bovespa Index

Bovespa Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Bovespa. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Bovespa trading signals presented in the Bovespa statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
BovespaBOVESPA1259290.511.4750969.8042-1.93-2.24.420.02722

Bovespa closed at 125929.0 on 23 January 2021. Bovespa trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Bovespa momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Bovespa momentum exhaustion is 1.47509 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Bovespa is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Bovespa RSI was last calculated at 69.8042. Bovespa moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 115641.0 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 106329.0 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 98916.9 in an uptrend. Bovespa annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -1.93%, and weekly return was last recorded at -2.2%. Bovespa histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 15.5418%, Bovespa alpha None, Bovespa beta None and Bovespa maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Bovespa statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Bovespa Index News

Bovespa Factors

Bovespa

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Brazil PMI vs StocksBR.FACT.STPMI95979.767.1543-2.64383

Bovespa related Indicators

Bovespa

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Brazil Small-Cap ETFStock Index ETFEWZ18.74-0.50.250.5500650.9047-4.34-7.558.89-0.23968
Brazil PMI vs StocksStock Index vs PMI FactorBR.FACT.STPMI95979.7

Brazil Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
BovespaBOVESPA1259290.511.4750969.8042-1.93-2.24.420.02722
Brazil Small-Cap ETFEWZ18.74-0.50.250.5500650.9047-4.34-7.558.89-0.23968
Brazil Real US Dollar (BRL/USD)BRLUSD 5.19-0.5-0.25-0.0029847.63092.34.5-2.890.2566
Brazil 10-Year Bond YieldBR.10Y9.21-1-0.5-0.4182931.6399-0.38-1.231.60.02147
Brazil 5-Year Bond YieldBR.5Y8.14-1-0.75-1.0476625.7540.56-1.932.97-0.13698
Brazil 2-year bond yieldBR.2Y7.7400.50.4666550.1619-2.89-5.269.87-0.17705
Brazil Yield CurveBR.YC1.470-0.75-0.7268637.135815.2914.84-27.940.58138
Brazil Credit Default SwapsCDS.Brazil178-1-0.75-0.9325429.55772.39.88-6.810.46808

Brazil Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade103729290.870.1163650.5952361.01.00.8333332021-06-30
bank lending rate39.9341.02-0.0265724-0.06574641.0-1.00.652021-05-31
banks balance sheet843864083567900.009794430.2269421.01.00.52021-02-28
business confidence6261.70.004862240.3025211.01.00.82021-07-31
capacity utilization81.682.3-0.008505470.1574471.01.00.9833332021-05-31
capital flows41305639.1-0.2676145.522431.01.012021-05-31
car registrations182189-0.0370370.368421-1.01.00.952021-06-30
cash reserve ratio212100-1.0-1.00.6333332020-01-31
central bank balance sheet40524700004153300000-0.02427710.0240751-1.01.00.08333332021-04-30
composite pmi54.649.20.1097560.3481481.01.00.9666672021-06-30
consumer confidence43.842.80.02336450.0428571-1.01.00.752020-08-31
consumer price index cpi5769.985739.560.005300060.08347071.01.00.952021-06-30
core inflation rate4.694.160.1274041.436361.01.012021-06-30
current account3840.45663-0.32184421.91411.01.012021-05-31
current account to gdp-0.72-2.7-0.733333-0.61.01.002020-01-31
deposit interest rate2.31.910.2041880.1330051.01.012021-05-31
exports28104.326948.30.0428970.6078891.01.012021-06-30
external debt6367206275650.0145881-0.0189154-1.0-1.00.2833332021-04-01
foreign direct investment1228.663540-0.652921-0.601118-1.0-1.00.252021-05-31
foreign exchange reserves352486353448-0.002721760.0106227-1.01.00.5333332021-06-30
gdp1444.731839.76-0.214718-0.148064-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Real GDP297300300265-0.009874610.02193041.01.00.3166672021-03-01
gdp growth1.23.2-0.62521.01.00.92021-01-01
gdp growth annual1-1.1-1.90909-0.4444441.0-1.00.6833332021-03-31
gold reserves67.3667.3600.001040271.01.00.5333332020-08-01
government budget-13.4-5.91.271195.7-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget-3740030000-2.24667-0.733621.01.00.12021-05-31
government debt669635066652800.004661470.1294061.01.002021-05-31
government debt to gdp75.7976.53-0.009669410.3362131.01.002019-01-31
government revenues142100156822-0.09387710.8355521.01.012021-05-31
housing index135.41350.002962960.04153851.01.012021-04-30
imports17732.317657.40.004241850.615391.01.00.9833332021-06-30
industrial production2434.7-0.308357-2.095891.01.00.252021-05-31
industrial production mom1.4-1.5-1.93333-0.82716-1.0-1.00.62021-05-31
inflation cpi8.358.060.03598022.920191.01.00.9833332021-06-30
interest rate220-0.666667-1.0-1.00.03333332021-01-02
loan growth1.20.51.43-1.01.00.952021-05-31
loans to private sector675760679108-0.004930.1957481.01.00.9166672021-05-31
manufacturing pmi56.453.70.05027930.0930233-1.01.00.6666672021-06-30
money supply m04222124035280.04630160.1061941.01.00.72021-06-30
money supply m16152345806900.05948780.1863361.01.00.7833332021-06-30
money supply m2393957039225200.00434670.1187161.01.00.5833332021-05-31
money supply m3822766081131000.01412040.1433231.01.00.8166672021-05-31
Producer Price Index147.65145.770.0128970.3586131.01.012021-05-31
PPI Index35.733.50.06567163.636361.01.00.952021-04-30
retail sales MoM1.8-1.1-2.63636-1.751.01.00.2833332021-04-30
retail sales1623.7-0.324895-3.162161.01.00.12021-05-31
services pmi53.948.30.1159420.5013931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
total vehicle sales133318142673-0.06556950.301934-1.01.00.952021-06-30
unemployment rate14.714.40.02083330.2049181.01.00.6666672021-03-31

Bovespa Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Bovespa momentum, Bovespa trend, Bovespa oscillator, Bovespa RSI and Bovespa returns.

Bovespa Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarBovespa momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Bovespa momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Bovespa. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Bovespa return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Bovespa momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Bovespa momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Bovespa trend

Bovespa trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Bovespa trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Bovespa Closing price vs Bovespa moving average (MA) calculation: If Bovespa is greater than Bovespa MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Bovespa Moving average slope calculation: if current Bovespa moving average is higher than the previous MA, Bovespa upward slope +1, else -1
Bovespa trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Bovespa trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Bovespa trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Bovespa 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Bovespa is in an uptrend when Bovespa price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Bovespa 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Bovespa oscillator and Bovespa RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Bovespa oscillator

The Bovespa oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Bovespa price versus Bovespa 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Bovespa oscillator is:
Bovespa oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Bovespa simple moving average price) / (250 days Bovespa price standard deviation)

Bovespa oversold conditions
Bovespa is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Bovespa is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Bovespa oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Bovespa oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Bovespa quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Bovespa RSI.
Bovespa overbought conditions
Bovespa is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Bovespa is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Bovespa oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Bovespa quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Bovespa RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Bovespa is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Bovespa uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Bovespa returns

MacroVar calculates Bovespa returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Bovespa returns = (Bovespa Closing Price – Bovespa Previous Price)/(Bovespa Previous Price)
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