Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield closed down by -0.38% to 9.21 on 23 January 2021 and +-1.23% on a weekly basis. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -100.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -50.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.41829 indicating Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI is 31.6399 .

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Chart

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trading signals presented in the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield BR.10Y 9.21 -1 -0.5 -0.41829 31.6399 -0.38 -1.23 1.6 0.02147

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield closed at 9.21 on 23 January 2021. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.41829 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI was last calculated at 31.6399. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 7.1808 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 7.42977 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 7.14565 in an uptrend. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.38%, and weekly return was last recorded at -1.23%. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 23.8396%, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield alpha None, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield beta None and Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield News

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Factors

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Brazil PMI vs 10Y BR.FACT.10YPMI 7.69 43.9326 0.489821
Brazil 10Y vs FX BR.FACT.FX10Y 6.9 7.65579e15 0.057

Brazil Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Bovespa BOVESPA 125929 0.5 1 1.47509 69.8042 -1.93 -2.2 4.42 0.02722
Brazil Small-Cap ETF EWZ 18.74 -0.5 0.25 0.55006 50.9047 -4.34 -7.55 8.89 -0.23968
Brazil Real US Dollar (BRL/USD) BRLUSD 5.19 -0.5 -0.25 -0.00298 47.6309 2.3 4.5 -2.89 0.2566
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield BR.10Y 9.21 -1 -0.5 -0.41829 31.6399 -0.38 -1.23 1.6 0.02147
Brazil 5-Year Bond Yield BR.5Y 8.14 -1 -0.75 -1.04766 25.754 0.56 -1.93 2.97 -0.13698
Brazil 2-year bond yield BR.2Y 7.74 0 0.5 0.46665 50.1619 -2.89 -5.26 9.87 -0.17705
Brazil Yield Curve BR.YC 1.47 0 -0.75 -0.72686 37.1358 15.29 14.84 -27.94 0.58138
Brazil Credit Default Swaps CDS.Brazil 178 -1 -0.75 -0.93254 29.5577 2.3 9.88 -6.81 0.46808

Brazil Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 10372 9290.87 0.116365 0.595236 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-06-30
bank lending rate 39.93 41.02 -0.0265724 -0.0657464 1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 8438640 8356790 0.00979443 0.226942 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-02-28
business confidence 62 61.7 0.00486224 0.302521 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-07-31
capacity utilization 81.6 82.3 -0.00850547 0.157447 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
capital flows 4130 5639.1 -0.267614 5.52243 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
car registrations 182 189 -0.037037 0.368421 -1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
cash reserve ratio 21 21 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.633333 2020-01-31
central bank balance sheet 4052470000 4153300000 -0.0242771 0.0240751 -1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-30
composite pmi 54.6 49.2 0.109756 0.348148 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
consumer confidence 43.8 42.8 0.0233645 0.0428571 -1.0 1.0 0.75 2020-08-31
consumer price index cpi 5769.98 5739.56 0.00530006 0.0834707 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 4.69 4.16 0.127404 1.43636 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
current account 3840.4 5663 -0.321844 21.9141 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -0.72 -2.7 -0.733333 -0.6 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
deposit interest rate 2.3 1.91 0.204188 0.133005 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
exports 28104.3 26948.3 0.042897 0.607889 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
external debt 636720 627565 0.0145881 -0.0189154 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
foreign direct investment 1228.66 3540 -0.652921 -0.601118 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-05-31
foreign exchange reserves 352486 353448 -0.00272176 0.0106227 -1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-06-30
gdp 1444.73 1839.76 -0.214718 -0.148064 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP 297300 300265 -0.00987461 0.0219304 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-03-01
gdp growth 1.2 3.2 -0.625 2 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual 1 -1.1 -1.90909 -0.444444 1.0 -1.0 0.683333 2021-03-31
gold reserves 67.36 67.36 0 0.00104027 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2020-08-01
government budget -13.4 -5.9 1.27119 5.7 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -37400 30000 -2.24667 -0.73362 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-05-31
government debt 6696350 6665280 0.00466147 0.129406 1.0 1.0 0 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 75.79 76.53 -0.00966941 0.336213 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
government revenues 142100 156822 -0.0938771 0.835552 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
housing index 135.4 135 0.00296296 0.0415385 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
imports 17732.3 17657.4 0.00424185 0.61539 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
industrial production 24 34.7 -0.308357 -2.09589 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-05-31
industrial production mom 1.4 -1.5 -1.93333 -0.82716 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 8.35 8.06 0.0359802 2.92019 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
interest rate 2 2 0 -0.666667 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-02
loan growth 1.2 0.5 1.4 3 -1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 675760 679108 -0.00493 0.195748 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-05-31
manufacturing pmi 56.4 53.7 0.0502793 0.0930233 -1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30
money supply m0 422212 403528 0.0463016 0.106194 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-06-30
money supply m1 615234 580690 0.0594878 0.186336 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-06-30
money supply m2 3939570 3922520 0.0043467 0.118716 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
money supply m3 8227660 8113100 0.0141204 0.143323 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 147.65 145.77 0.012897 0.358613 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 35.7 33.5 0.0656716 3.63636 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-04-30
retail sales MoM 1.8 -1.1 -2.63636 -1.75 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-30
retail sales 16 23.7 -0.324895 -3.16216 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-05-31
services pmi 53.9 48.3 0.115942 0.501393 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
total vehicle sales 133318 142673 -0.0655695 0.301934 -1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 14.7 14.4 0.0208333 0.204918 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-03-31

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI and Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield returns.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarBrazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Closing price vs Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield moving average (MA) calculation: If Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is greater than Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Moving average slope calculation: if current Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield moving average is higher than the previous MA, Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield upward slope +1, else -1
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is in an uptrend when Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator and Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator

The Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield price versus Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator is:
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield simple moving average price) / (250 days Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield price standard deviation)

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oversold conditions
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI.
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield overbought conditions
Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield returns

MacroVar calculates Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield returns = (Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Closing Price – Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Previous Price)/(Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Previous Price)
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