EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar closed up by 0.62% to 0.85 on 23 January 2021 and +1.37% on a weekly basis. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend is -75.0/100 indicating a negative trend. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum exhaustion is -1.59048 indicating EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is oversold.EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI is 45.5258 .

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Chart

EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trading signals presented in the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
EUR/USD - Euro US DollarEURUSD0.850-0.75-1.5904845.52580.621.373.07-0.08429

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar closed at 0.85 on 23 January 2021. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend was last calculated at -75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum exhaustion is -1.59048 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI was last calculated at 45.5258. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 0.82067 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 0.83669 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 0.87592 in a downtrend. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 0.62%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.37%. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 5.49211%, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar alpha None, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar beta None and EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar statistics based on historical data since 1970.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar News

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Factors

EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
EZ PMI Y/Y vs EURUSD Y/YEURUSD.FACT.EAPMI0.828543.8059-2.00037
ESI Y/Y vs EURUSD Y/YEURUSD.FACT.EAESI0.8591102.5720.484317
Germany PMI vs FXDE.FACT.FXPMI0.828540.789-2.25945
EA ESI vs FXEA.FACT.FXESI0.8591102.5720.484317
Germany ESI vs FXDE.FACT.FXESI0.859199.5031-0.213229

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Commitment of Traders report

Commitment of Traders report

CommercialsLarge Speculators
FactorSymbolLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLast Update
EUR Euro Futures COTCOT.EURO

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar related Indicators

EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Euro 1M Implied VolatilityFX Implied VolatilityEURUSD.IV5.13-1-0.5-0.3847245.382-0.77-5.52-4.820.63224
EZ PMI Y/Y vs EURUSD Y/YEurope FactorsEURUSD.FACT.EAPMI0.8285
ESI Y/Y vs EURUSD Y/YEurope FactorsEURUSD.FACT.EAESI0.8591
Germany PMI vs FXFX vs PMI FactorDE.FACT.FXPMI0.8285
EA ESI vs FXFX vs ESI FactorEA.FACT.FXESI0.8591
Germany ESI vs FXFX vs ESI FactorDE.FACT.FXESI0.8591
EUR Euro Futures COTCOTCOT.EURO

Euro area Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Euro Stoxx 50STOXX50E4026.610.751.1186963.5414-1.78-1.210.29-0.04339
STOXX Europe 600STOXX456.4210.751.2773765.4756-0.580.363.23-0.02743
Eurozone ETFEZU48.9111.607963.0535-1.33-2.04-0.570.06937
EUR/USD - Euro US DollarEURUSD0.850-0.75-1.5904845.52580.621.373.07-0.08429

Euro area Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade8437.730184.6-0.720463-4.76515-1.01.00.01666672021-01-31
business confidence11.410.50.0857143-1.522941.01.00.3666672021-06-30
capacity utilization82.377.70.0592021-0.01789981.0-1.00.2833332021-04-01
consumer confidence-4.5-6-0.25-0.7058821.01.00.01666672021-06-30
consumer price index cpi108.38108.080.002775720.02303191.01.012021-05-31
core inflation rate1.31.20.08333330.08333331.01.00.4833332021-05-31
exports148336175327-0.153947-0.107227-1.0-1.00.08333332021-01-31
Real GDP3166.923172.09-0.00162984-0.0260336-1.0-1.00.03333332021-03-31
government budget-6.9-0.512.82.45-1.0-1.002020-01-31
government debt12078200108383000.11440.6776121.01.002020-12-31
government debt to gdp90.777.50.1703230.4796081.01.002020-12-31
imports139899145142-0.0361232-0.169211-1.0-1.00.052021-01-31
industrial production21.238.8-0.453608-2.061.01.00.152021-05-31
industrial production mom0.6-1-1.6-0.7272731.0-1.00.5666672021-03-31
long term unemployment rate2.82.70.037037-0.21.0-1.002021-03-31
Producer Price Index110.3108.80.01378680.09642151.01.012021-05-31
PPI Index9.67.60.263158-3.042551.01.00.12021-05-31
retail sales MoM4.6-3.1-2.48387-0.7444441.0-1.00.62021-05-31
retail sales yoy9.222.4-0.589286-5.181821.01.00.03333332021-05-31
unemployment rate7.37.4-0.01351350.140625-1.01.00.9333332021-03-31
youth unemployment rate17.318.2-0.04945060.0176471-1.01.00.7833332021-05-31
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area768014076576300.002939550.07602961.01.00.6333332021-06-04
Construction sector0.8-5-1.16-1.04421.01.00.4166672021-04-01
Consumer sector-9-12.1-0.256198-0.5909091.01.00.052021-04-01
Manufacturing sector9.41.17.54545-1.291021.01.00.42021-04-01
Retail sector-1.5-11-0.863636-0.9484541.01.00.32021-04-01
Services sector2.8-9.4-1.29787-1.072541.01.00.2166672021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite109.799.90.09809810.6348731.01.012021-04-01

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI and EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar returns.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarEUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Closing price vs EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar moving average (MA) calculation: If EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is greater than EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar MA value is +1, else -1, 2. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Moving average slope calculation: if current EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar moving average is higher than the previous MA, EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar upward slope +1, else -1
EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is in an uptrend when EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator and EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator

The EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar price versus EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator is:
EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar simple moving average price) / (250 days EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar price standard deviation)

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oversold conditions
EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI.
EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar overbought conditions
EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar returns

MacroVar calculates EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar returns = (EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Closing Price – EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Previous Price)/(EUR/USD – Euro US Dollar Previous Price)
Feedback
Feedback
How would you rate your experience?
Do you have any additional comment?
Next
Enter your email if you'd like us to contact you regarding with your feedback.
Back
Submit
Thank you for submitting your feedback!