Europe Economy

Europe’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Europe’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.35%. Europe’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.5.

Europe Financial Markets

 

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
STOXX Europe 600 STOXX 462.77 -1 -0.25 0.69391 36.7305 -0.00574 -0.00276 -0.04276 0.17708
Eurozone ETF EZU 44.77 0.5 -0.5 -1.54835 56.7972 0.03467 0.02613 0.06216 -0.03596
EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar EURUSD 0.9019 0 0.75 1.59231 48.7867 -0.00912 -0.00507 0.00345 0.07343

STOXX Europe 600 closed up by 0.00421% to 408.12 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01966% on a weekly basis. STOXX Europe 600 momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. STOXX Europe 600 trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. STOXX Europe 600 momentum exhaustion is 1.27737 indicating STOXX Europe 600 is oversold.Itraxx EUROPE Index (5-years) closed up by 0.0063% to 47.9 on 23 January 2021 and +8.58% on a weekly basis. Itraxx EUROPE Index (5-years) momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. Itraxx EUROPE Index (5-years) trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. Itraxx EUROPE Index (5-years) momentum exhaustion is -0.47847 indicating Itraxx EUROPE Index (5-years) is oversold.iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Index (5-years) closed up by 0.00683% to 59.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.07668% on a weekly basis. iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Index (5-years) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Index (5-years) trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Index (5-years) momentum exhaustion is -0.13849 indicating iTraxx Europe Senior Financials Index (5-years) is oversold.iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financials Index (5-years) closed up by 9.07273% to 110.8 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.07973% on a weekly basis. iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financials Index (5-years) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financials Index (5-years) trend is +0.0/100 indicating a positive trend. iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financials Index (5-years) momentum exhaustion is -0.08585 indicating iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financials Index (5-years) is oversold.iTraxx Europe Crossover Index Tranche (5-years) closed up by 0.01086% to 242.1 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.06885% on a weekly basis. iTraxx Europe Crossover Index Tranche (5-years) momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. iTraxx Europe Crossover Index Tranche (5-years) trend is +0.5/100 indicating a positive trend. iTraxx Europe Crossover Index Tranche (5-years) momentum exhaustion is 0.00685 indicating iTraxx Europe Crossover Index Tranche (5-years) is oversold.

Europe Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Europe Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Europe’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Europe Macro Model

 

Europe News

Europe Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 7.3 7.4 -0.0135135 0.140625 -1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 109.7 99.9 0.0980981 0.634873 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 12078200 10838300 0.1144 0.677612 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31
government debt to gdp 88.1 90 -2.11 19.05 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Europe’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Europe’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.35%. Europe’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.5.Europe’s business confidence decreased to -6.4 by -18.99% on August 2019 from -7.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s business confidence decreased by -208.48%. Europe’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -6.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.075.Europe’s consumer confidence icnreased to -5.9 by 59.46% on December 2018 from -3.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s consumer confidence increased by 883.33%. Europe’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -5.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.64167.

Europe Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 5.2 6.6 -21.21 -50.48 Down Down 55 2022-05-26
ESI - Economic Composite 109.7 99.9 0.0980981 0.634873 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 9.4 1.1 7.54545 -1.29102 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -9 -12.1 -0.256198 -0.590909 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Construction sector 0.8 -5 -1.16 -1.0442 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -1.5 -11 -0.863636 -0.948454 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Services sector 2.8 -9.4 -1.29787 -1.07254 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Europe’s business confidence decreased to -6.4 by -18.99% on August 2019 from -7.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s business confidence decreased by -208.48%. Europe’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -6.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.075.Europe’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 86.6 by -399.0% on January 2021 from 90.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1417.0%. Europe’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 86.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 86.8167.Europe’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -10.2 by 1087.0% on January 2021 from -9.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing sector increased by 2289.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -10.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.375.Europe’s Consumer sector icnreased to -18.7 by 1333.0% on January 2021 from -16.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer sector increased by 19219.0%. Europe’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -18.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.125.Europe’s Construction sector icnreased to -11.1 by 472.0% on January 2021 from -10.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction sector decreased by -48276.0%. Europe’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.48333.Europe’s Retail sector icnreased to -11.8 by 10702.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail sector decreased by -141111.0%. Europe’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -11.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.4833.Europe’s Services sector icnreased to -17.4 by 4146.0% on January 2021 from -12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services sector decreased by -28710.0%. Europe’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -17.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2833.

Europe Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -24 -22.2 8.11 293.44 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-24
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -15 -22.7 -0.339207 -0.715909 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 0.8 -2 -1.4 -1.06557 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 21.9 21.2 0.0330189 -0.300319 1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 36.9 41.3 -0.106538 -0.416139 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -11.7 -13.2 -0.113636 -0.41791 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 7.9 7.1 0.112676 -10.875 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 21.2 22 -0.0363636 0.254438 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
retail sales yoy 3.9 1.6 143.75 -82.51 Down Down 83.33 2022-05-26

Europe’s consumer confidence icnreased to -5.9 by 59.46% on December 2018 from -3.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s consumer confidence increased by 883.33%. Europe’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -5.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.64167.Europe’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -40.2 by 1652.0% on January 2021 from -34.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 19343.0%. Europe’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -40.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.0583.Europe’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -6.9 by 3800.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -41364.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.66667.Europe’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 17.2 by 1242.0% on January 2021 from 15.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -1610.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 17.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.5833.Europe’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 57.7 by 1054.0% on January 2021 from 52.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 28467.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 57.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.875.Europe’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -17.8 by 533.0% on January 2021 from -16.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 4472.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.5.Europe’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to 3.6 by 5652.0% on January 2021 from 2.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 62000.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.08333.Europe’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 18.4 by -366.0% on January 2021 from 19.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 888.0%. Europe’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 18.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.8833.Europe’s retail sales yoy decreased to 2.6 by -18.75% on July 2019 from 3.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s retail sales yoy increased by 44.44%. Europe’s retail sales yoy trend is down since the current value of 2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.48333.

Europe Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 9.4 1.1 7.54545 -1.29102 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -2.8 -13.5 -0.792593 -0.928389 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 23.8 17 0.4 -4.17333 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 17.8 5.1 2.4902 -1.60751 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -6.9 -16.7 -0.586826 -0.835322 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -3 -0.7 3.28571 -1.30612 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 28.1 16.1 0.745342 -1.58664 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
industrial production 0.7 2.8 -75 -94.12 Down Down 53.33 2022-05-18
industrial production mom -1.2 0.6 -300 -271.43 Down Down 11.67 2022-05-18
capacity utilization 82.3 77.7 0.0592021 -0.0178998 1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01

Europe’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -10.2 by 1087.0% on January 2021 from -9.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing sector increased by 2289.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -10.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.375.Europe’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -26.6 by -732.0% on January 2021 from -28.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 5740.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -26.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.3583.Europe’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 0.4 by -6364.0% on January 2021 from 1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -7333.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.8.Europe’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 1.5 by -4828.0% on January 2021 from 2.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -14839.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9917.Europe’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -30.0 by -596.0% on January 2021 from -31.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 5873.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.8.Europe’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 3.3 by -2667.0% on January 2021 from 4.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -6489.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.18333.Europe’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -0.7 by -11228.0% on January 2021 from 5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -15385.0%. Europe’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.56667.Europe’s industrial production decreased to -1.2 by -36.84% on July 2019 from -1.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s industrial production increased by 200.0%. Europe’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.375.Europe’s industrial production mom decreased to -0.1 by -92.86% on July 2019 from -1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s industrial production mom decreased by -103.85%. Europe’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.208333.Europe’s capacity utilization decreased to 81.6 by -1.09% on July 2019 from 82.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Europe’s capacity utilization increased by 0.12%. Europe’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 81.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 82.9417.

Europe Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 2.8 -9.4 -1.29787 -1.07254 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 16.7 5.3 2.15094 -1.31689 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 5.7 0.8 6.125 -1.53774 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -5.9 -16.9 -0.650888 -0.826979 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -2.2 -16.4 -0.865854 -0.924138 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -5.6 -10 -0.44 -0.662651 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 8.4 -0.2 -43 -1.27184 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01

Europe’s Services sector icnreased to -17.4 by 4146.0% on January 2021 from -12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services sector decreased by -28710.0%. Europe’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -17.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2833.Europe’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -17.4 by 11482.0% on January 2021 from -8.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -22254.0%. Europe’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.73333.Europe’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -4.4 by 8333.0% on January 2021 from -2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -16286.0%. Europe’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.35.Europe’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -19.9 by 1503.0% on January 2021 from -17.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -44310.0%. Europe’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.8417.Europe’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -14.8 by 2759.0% on January 2021 from -11.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -28974.0%. Europe’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.2583.Europe’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -10.3 by -283.0% on January 2021 from -10.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -46786.0%. Europe’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.7833.Europe’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -8.0 by 2121.0% on January 2021 from -6.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -19639.0%. Europe’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.55833.

Europe Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -1.5 -11 -0.863636 -0.948454 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 2.9 -9.7 -1.29897 -1.06651 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 15.3 9.5 0.610526 -3.59322 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -3.3 -16.6 -0.801205 -0.816667 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 7.8 10.1 -0.227723 -0.61 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 6.5 -6.1 -2.06557 -1.13158 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 0.1 -5.5 -1.01818 -1.00405 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
retail sales MoM -1.3 0.3 -533.33 -132.5 Down Down 13.33 2022-05-26

Europe’s Retail sector icnreased to -11.8 by 10702.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail sector decreased by -141111.0%. Europe’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -11.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.4833.Europe’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -19.4 by 20312.0% on January 2021 from -6.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -102381.0%. Europe’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.2333.Europe’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 2.5 by -4681.0% on January 2021 from 4.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -6711.0%. Europe’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.64167.Europe’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -2.1 by -220000.0% on January 2021 from 0.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -12308.0%. Europe’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.79167.Europe’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 10.0 by 2987.0% on January 2021 from 7.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -2000.0%. Europe’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.2083.Europe’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -23.4 by 14632.0% on January 2021 from -9.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -48361.0%. Europe’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.4333.Europe’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -10.2 by 12174.0% on January 2021 from -4.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -123333.0%. Europe’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.2.Europe’s retail sales MoM decreased to -0.05 by -350.0% on November 2020 from 0.02 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s retail sales MoM decreased by -600.0%. Europe’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.00166667.

Europe Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 0.8 -5 -1.16 -1.0442 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -6.6 -10.1 -0.346535 -0.5875 1.0 1.0 0.65 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 9.5 -0.4 -24.75 -1.66901 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 8.2 0.1 81 -1.40796 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 1 -3.2 -1.3125 -1.05291 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 42.8 39.2 0.0918367 0.507042 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 25.7 25.4 0.011811 0.189815 -1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 7.2 4.9 0.469388 2.6 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 21.5 17.4 0.235632 0.352201 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 5.9 3.6 0.638889 0.18 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 9.7 16.3 -0.404908 -0.594142 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 14.1 18 -0.216667 -0.580357 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Europe’s Construction sector icnreased to -11.1 by 472.0% on January 2021 from -10.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction sector decreased by -48276.0%. Europe’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.48333.Europe’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -19.6 by 481.0% on January 2021 from -18.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -227778.0%. Europe’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -19.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.475.Europe’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -8.6 by 1316.0% on January 2021 from -7.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -24828.0%. Europe’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.1.Europe’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months icnreased to -2.6 by 833.0% on January 2021 from -2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -14194.0%. Europe’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.50833.Europe’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -15.2 by 2562.0% on January 2021 from -12.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -39231.0%. Europe’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -15.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.3083.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 34.4 by -652.0% on January 2021 from 36.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1751.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 34.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 36.625.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 28.1 by 36.0% on January 2021 from 28.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 4121.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 28.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.475.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 6.1 by -758.0% on January 2021 from 6.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -3068.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.625.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 14.6 by 210.0% on January 2021 from 14.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -3453.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 14.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.375.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 2.1 by 3125.0% on January 2021 from 1.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 2353.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.4.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 19.0 by 497.0% on January 2021 from 18.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 8095.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.125.Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 20.8 by 1556.0% on January 2021 from 18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 3684.0%. Europe’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 20.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.5833.

 

Europe GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 3386.94 3362.29 0.73 -99.91 Down Down 16.67 2022-06-11

Europe’s Real GDP icnreased to 3630010.0 by 0.41% on July 2018 from 3615170.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Europe’s Real GDP increased by 6.67%. Europe’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 3630010.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3526980.0.

Europe inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
core inflation rate 4.51 4.14 8.94 275.83 UP UP 100 2022-06-16
consumer price index cpi 117.95 116.83 0.96 8.83 UP UP 100 2022-06-16
Producer Price Index 149.2 147.3 1.29 37.01 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
PPI Index 36.5 31.2 16.99 711.11 UP UP 100 2022-05-26

Europe’s core inflation rate Europe’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.2.Europe’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 105.75 by 0.15% on August 2019 from 105.59 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s consumer price index cpi increased by 1.56%. Europe’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 105.75 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 104.967.Europe’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 106.4 by 0.28% on July 2019 from 106.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s Producer Price Index increased by 0.57%. Europe’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 106.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.658.Europe’s PPI Index decreased to 0.6 by -33.33% on July 2019 from 0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s PPI Index decreased by -87.76%. Europe’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.14167.

 

Europe Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -4.7 -6.8 -30.88 -21.67 Down UP 0 2022-04-29

Europe Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Europe Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 107.9 98 0.10102 0.734727 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 7.3 7.4 -0.0135135 0.140625 -1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31
youth unemployment rate 17.3 18.2 -0.0494506 0.0176471 -1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 2.8 2.7 0.037037 -0.2 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-03-31

Europe’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 87.2 by -365.0% on January 2021 from 90.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Europe’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1640.0%. Europe’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 87.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.0083.Europe’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Europe’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.35%. Europe’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.5.Europe’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 14.3 by 1.42% on July 2019 from 14.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s youth unemployment rate decreased by -5.3%. Europe’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 14.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.5667.Europe’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 1.2 by -27.27% on October 2018 from 1.65 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Europe’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -35.48%. Europe’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.76667.

Europe Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
exports 198502 220803 -10.1 10.88 UP UP 96.67 2022-06-16
imports 242128 248660 -2.63 45.48 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-16
balance of trade -43625.3 -27857.3 56.6 -449.37 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-16

Europe’s exports icnreased to 181232.0 by 10.17% on July 2019 from 164502.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s exports increased by 6.31%. Europe’s exports trend is down since the current value of 181232.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 167235.0.Europe’s imports icnreased to 181342.0 by 14.33% on July 2019 from 158616.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s imports increased by 6.33%. Europe’s imports trend is down since the current value of 181342.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 169646.0.Europe’s balance of trade icnreased to -8384.7 by 9822.72% on August 2018 from -84.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Europe’s balance of trade increased by 37.21%. Europe’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -8384.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 511.908.

Europe Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Europe’s government debt icnreased to 12715200.0 by 1.08% on January 2018 from 12579800.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Europe’s government debt increased by 72.5%. Europe’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 12715200.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10886000.0.Europe’s government debt to gdp decreased to 80.0 by -2.08% on January 2018 from 81.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Europe’s government debt to gdp increased by 33.11%. Europe’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 80.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 77.9583.


Europe Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 12078200 10838300 0.1144 0.677612 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31
government debt to gdp 88.1 90 -2.11 19.05 UP UP 0 2022-04-29

Europe’s government debt icnreased to 12715200.0 by 1.08% on January 2018 from 12579800.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Europe’s government debt increased by 72.5%. Europe’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 12715200.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10886000.0.Europe’s government debt to gdp decreased to 80.0 by -2.08% on January 2018 from 81.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Europe’s government debt to gdp increased by 33.11%. Europe’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 80.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 77.9583.


Europe Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Europe macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Europe economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Europe Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Europe Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Europe’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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