DAX Futures index

DAX Futures closed down by -2.33% to 15410.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.41% on a weekly basis. DAX Futures momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. DAX Futures trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. DAX Futures momentum exhaustion is 1.25945 indicating DAX Futures is oversold.DAX Futures RSI is 65.1882 .

DAX Futures index Chart

DAX Futures index

DAX Futures index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the DAX Futures. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the DAX Futures trading signals presented in the DAX Futures statistics table.

DAX FuturesFDAX15410111.2594565.1882-2.33-0.410.520.05856

DAX Futures closed at 15410.0 on 23 January 2021. DAX Futures trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. DAX Futures momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. DAX Futures momentum exhaustion is 1.25945 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating DAX Futures is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. DAX Futures RSI was last calculated at 65.1882. DAX Futures moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 13479.8 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 13009.8 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 12321.2 in an uptrend. DAX Futures annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.33%, and weekly return was last recorded at -0.41%. DAX Futures histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 16.3066%, DAX Futures alpha None, DAX Futures beta None and DAX Futures maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor DAX Futures statistics based on historical data since 1970.

DAX Futures index News

DAX Futures Factors

DAX Futures

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal

Germany Markets

Germany ETFEWG34.23111.4313364.2818-2.23-1.98-2.760.10119
FGBX 30Y German BundsFGBX212.16111.1235853.27622.
FGBL 10Y German BundsFGBL175.53111.5998563.38830.681.952.960.04096
German 30YDE.30Y0.091-1-1.160744.8356-52.13-73.99-72.64-1.92271
Germany 10-Year Bond YieldDE.10Y-0.390.5-0.5-0.8764750.277422.64125.4372.571.64352
Germany 5-Year Bond YieldDE.5Y-0.681-0.75-0.8958247.318110.7523.4112.580.47287
Germany 2-year bond yieldDE.2Y-0.7100-0.171157.44267.099.914.570.20543
Germany Yield CurveDE.YC0.32-1-1-1.3387640.9082-7.25-32.35-29.36-0.62735
Germany Credit Default SwapsCDS.Germany9.920-1-0.6939245.89740.97-2.15-3.76-0.18049

Germany Economic Indicators

balance of trade1230015244.6-0.1931570.768947-
bank lending rate1.891.9-0.005263160.0327869-1.01.012021-05-31
banks balance sheet9329.299321.220.0008657660.02924921.01.00.5833332021-04-30
building permits29027260430.114580.02085531.01.00.5833332021-05-31
business confidence101.899.20.02620970.1809741.01.00.9666672021-06-30
capacity utilization86.281.80.0537897-0.01710381.0-1.00.32021-04-01
capital flows43567.527559.80.5808351.072491.01.00.8666672021-02-28
car registrations2741522306350.1886830.2446071.01.00.9333332021-06-30
central bank balance sheet25622551.40.004154580.3416421.01.00.7166672021-04-30
composite pmi60.156.20.0693950.2787231.01.00.952021-06-30
construction pmi4744.50.05617980.1380151.01.00.952021-06-30
consumer confidence-0.3-6.9-0.956522-0.9680851.01.00.2166672021-07-31
consumer price index cpi109.1108.70.003679850.02345221.01.00.9833332021-06-30
core inflation rate1.71.9-0.1052630.3076921.01.00.82021-06-30
current account1310021000-0.376190.851326-
current account to gdp77.5-0.06666670.22807-1.01.002020-01-31
external debt570673055121400.03530210.2276211.01.00.8666672021-01-01
fiscal expenditure467.31438.430.06587140.2502271.01.00.9666672020-10-01
foreign direct investment1821.2218881.1-0.903543-0.865307-1.0-1.00.352021-02-28
foreign exchange reserves213600221201-0.0343624-0.0554315-1.0-1.00.1666672021-06-30
Real GDP768.782782.929-0.0180693-0.0419768-1.0-1.00.03333332021-01-01
gdp growth-1.80.5-4.6-3.25-1.0-1.00.1583332021-01-01
gdp growth annual-3.1-3.3-0.0606061-2.40909-1.0-1.00.152021-01-01
gold reserves3361.143362.45-0.000389597-0.00369338-1.0-1.00.62021-01-01
government budget-4.21.5-3.81.47059-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget-57.2-68.41-0.163865-6.97576-1.0-1.00.03333332020-10-01
government debt220540021718200.01546170.1314441.01.00.7333332021-01-01
government debt to gdp69.859.70.1691790.0705521-1.01.002020-01-31
government revenues410.11370.020.1083450.06980011.01.00.252020-10-01
housing index201.81199.340.01239090.1305251.01.012021-06-30
industrial production17.327.6-0.373188-1.920211.01.00.152021-05-31
industrial production mom-1.6-2-0.2-5-1.0-1.00.1166672021-02-28
inflation cpi2.32.5-0.082.833331.01.00.852021-06-30
interbank rate-0.54-0.5400.317073-1.0-1.00.7333332021-02-28
interest rate0.050.05001.0-1.00.7916672016-03-09
loans to private sector1657.231623.410.02083270.1593321.01.00.952020-09-01
long term unemployment rate1.21.10.0909091-0.294118-1.0-1.00.3916672021-01-01
manufacturing pmi65.164.40.01086960.4402651.01.00.952021-06-30
money supply m12764.32736.80.01004820.1035131.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m23527.83518.30.002700170.06412891.01.00.72021-05-31
money supply m33555.93541.30.004122780.06393991.01.00.7333332021-05-31
Producer Price Index111.8110.40.01268120.08543691.01.012021-06-30
PPI Index8.57.20.180556-5.722221.01.00.052021-06-30
retail sales MoM4.2-6.8-1.61765-0.6718751.0-1.00.62021-05-31
retail sales-2.45.1-1.47059-1.53333-1.0-1.00.252021-05-31
services pmi57.552.80.08901510.2156451.01.00.952021-06-30
unemployment rate3.73.8-0.0263158-0.0263158-1.0-1.00.7166672021-05-31
youth unemployment rate7.57.7-0.0259740.0869565-
zew economic sentiment index63.379.8-0.2067670.0674536-
zew economic current index45.247.2-4.24-13.08-1.0-1.002021-01-12
IFO Business Climate99.296.60.02691510.2307691.01.00.9833332021-05-31
IFO Business Expectations102.999.20.03729840.2503041.01.00.9833332021-05-31
IFO Current Conditions95.794.20.01592360.2113921.01.012021-05-31
Construction sector1.4-0.1-15-3.333331.01.00.06666672021-04-01
Consumer sector-7.9-8.2-0.0365854-0.5153371.01.00.5833332021-04-01
Manufacturing sector18.511.70.581197-1.555561.01.00.3666672021-04-01
Retail sector-8-14.9-0.463087-0.8076921.01.00.12021-04-01
Services sector5.4-3.4-2.58824-1.178221.01.00.1666672021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite109.4103.70.05496620.4924971.01.012021-04-01

DAX Futures Trading Signals

MacroVar estimates the following signals: DAX Futures momentum, DAX Futures trend, DAX Futures oscillator, DAX Futures RSI and DAX Futures returns.

DAX Futures Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarDAX Futures momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The DAX Futures momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the DAX Futures. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX Futures return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. DAX Futures momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when DAX Futures momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

DAX Futures trend

DAX Futures trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. DAX Futures trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX Futures Closing price vs DAX Futures moving average (MA) calculation: If DAX Futures is greater than DAX Futures MA value is +1, else -1, 2. DAX Futures Moving average slope calculation: if current DAX Futures moving average is higher than the previous MA, DAX Futures upward slope +1, else -1
DAX Futures trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. DAX Futures trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when DAX Futures trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The DAX Futures 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. DAX Futures is in an uptrend when DAX Futures price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the DAX Futures 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the DAX Futures oscillator and DAX Futures RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

DAX Futures oscillator

The DAX Futures oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current DAX Futures price versus DAX Futures 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the DAX Futures oscillator is:
DAX Futures oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days DAX Futures simple moving average price) / (250 days DAX Futures price standard deviation)

DAX Futures oversold conditions
DAX Futures is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the DAX Futures is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the DAX Futures oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the DAX Futures oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of DAX Futures quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the DAX Futures RSI.
DAX Futures overbought conditions
DAX Futures is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the DAX Futures is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the DAX Futures oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the DAX Futures quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

DAX Futures RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when DAX Futures is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During DAX Futures uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

DAX Futures returns

MacroVar calculates DAX Futures returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

DAX Futures returns = (DAX Futures Closing Price – DAX Futures Previous Price)/(DAX Futures Previous Price)
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