Germany Economy

Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.0 by -64.6% on July 2020 from -11.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased by -229.03%. Germany’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.541667.Germany’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.3 by 50.0% on November 2020 from -0.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s inflation cpi decreased by -127.27%. Germany’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.75.Germany’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Germany’s unemployment rate increased by 45.16%. Germany’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.88333.

Germany Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
DAX DAX 15422.5 0.5 1 1.12955 61.531 -2.32 -0.22 1.14 0.0378
Germany ETF EWG 34.23 1 1 1.43133 64.2818 -2.23 -1.98 -2.76 0.10119
FGBX 30Y German Bunds FGBX 212.16 1 1 1.12358 53.2762 2.01 4.8 4.01 0.12501
FGBL 10Y German Bunds FGBL 175.53 1 1 1.59985 63.3883 0.68 1.95 2.96 0.04096
German 30Y DE.30Y 0.09 1 -1 -1.1607 44.8356 -52.13 -73.99 -72.64 -1.92271
Germany 10-Year Bond Yield DE.10Y -0.39 0.5 -0.5 -0.87647 50.2774 22.64 125.43 72.57 1.64352
Germany 5-Year Bond Yield DE.5Y -0.68 1 -0.75 -0.89582 47.3181 10.75 23.41 12.58 0.47287
Germany 2-year bond yield DE.2Y -0.71 0 0 -0.1711 57.4426 7.09 9.91 4.57 0.20543
Germany Yield Curve DE.YC 0.32 -1 -1 -1.33876 40.9082 -7.25 -32.35 -29.36 -0.62735
Germany Credit Default Swaps CDS.Germany 9.92 0 -1 -0.69392 45.8974 0.97 -2.15 -3.76 -0.18049

DAX closed down by -0.0031% to 13718.8 on 23 January 2021 and +0.03567% on a weekly basis. DAX momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. DAX trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. DAX momentum exhaustion is 1.12955 indicating DAX is oversold.Germany ETF closed up by 0.00498% to 32.32 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00373% on a weekly basis. Germany ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Germany ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Germany ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.43133 indicating Germany ETF is oversold.Germany 10-Year Bond Yield closed up by 0.0% to -0.571 on 23 January 2021 and +0.04579% on a weekly basis. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -0.5/100 indicating a negative trend. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.87647 indicating Germany 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Germany Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.00139% to 10.142 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00043% on a weekly basis. Germany Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Germany Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Germany Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -0.69392 indicating Germany Credit Default Swaps is oversold.FGBX 30Y German Bunds closed up by 0.00524% to 226.42 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01053% on a weekly basis. FGBX 30Y German Bunds momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. FGBX 30Y German Bunds trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. FGBX 30Y German Bunds momentum exhaustion is 1.12358 indicating FGBX 30Y German Bunds is oversold.FGBL 10Y German Bunds closed up by 0.00174% to 178.15 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00445% on a weekly basis. FGBL 10Y German Bunds momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. FGBL 10Y German Bunds trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. FGBL 10Y German Bunds momentum exhaustion is 1.59985 indicating FGBL 10Y German Bunds is oversold.German 30Y closed up by 0.12353% to -0.191 on 23 January 2021 and +0.24837% on a weekly basis. German 30Y momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. German 30Y trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. German 30Y momentum exhaustion is -1.1607 indicating German 30Y is oversold.

Germany Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Germany Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Germany’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Germany macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Germany Macro Model

Germany News

Germany Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -3.1 -3.3 -0.0606061 -2.40909 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 2.3 2.5 -0.08 2.83333 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 3.7 3.8 -0.0263158 -0.0263158 -1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 109.4 103.7 0.0549662 0.492497 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 65.1 64.4 0.0108696 0.440265 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
services pmi 57.5 52.8 0.0890151 0.215645 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2205400 2171820 0.0154617 0.131444 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 69.8 59.7 0.169179 0.0705521 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 5706730 5512140 0.0353021 0.227621 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 213600 221201 -0.0343624 -0.0554315 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 3361.14 3362.45 -0.000389597 -0.00369338 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 13100 21000 -0.37619 0.851326 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 7 7.5 -0.0666667 0.22807 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 2562 2551.4 0.00415458 0.341642 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-04-30
banks balance sheet 9329.29 9321.22 0.000865766 0.0292492 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-30
money supply m2 3527.8 3518.3 0.00270017 0.0641289 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -57.2 -68.41 -0.163865 -6.97576 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-10-01
government revenues 410.11 370.02 0.108345 0.0698001 1.0 1.0 0.25 2020-10-01
fiscal expenditure 467.31 438.43 0.0658714 0.250227 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-10-01

Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.0 by -64.6% on July 2020 from -11.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased by -229.03%. Germany’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.541667.Germany’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.3 by 50.0% on November 2020 from -0.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s inflation cpi decreased by -127.27%. Germany’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.75.Germany’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Germany’s unemployment rate increased by 45.16%. Germany’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.88333.Germany’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 58.3 by 0.87% on December 2020 from 57.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s manufacturing pmi increased by 33.41%. Germany’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 58.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.075.Germany’s services pmi icnreased to 47.7 by 3.7% on December 2020 from 46.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s services pmi decreased by -9.83%. Germany’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 47.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.7.Germany’s composite pmi icnreased to 52.5 by 1.55% on December 2020 from 51.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s composite pmi increased by 4.58%. Germany’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 52.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.4333.Germany’s construction pmi icnreased to 45.6 by 0.88% on November 2020 from 45.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s construction pmi decreased by -13.14%. Germany’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 45.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.9333.Germany’s building permits icnreased to 26760.0 by 1.17% on October 2020 from 26450.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s building permits decreased by -5.48%. Germany’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 26760.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27434.9.Germany’s business confidence icnreased to 92.1 by 1.32% on December 2020 from 90.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s business confidence decreased by -3.56%. Germany’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 92.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.2583.Germany’s consumer confidence icnreased to -7.3 by 7.35% on January 2021 from -6.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s consumer confidence decreased by -175.26%. Germany’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.29167.

 

Germany Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 101.8 99.2 0.0262097 0.180974 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 109.4 103.7 0.0549662 0.492497 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 65.1 64.4 0.0108696 0.440265 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
services pmi 57.5 52.8 0.0890151 0.215645 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
composite pmi 60.1 56.2 0.069395 0.278723 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
zew economic current index 45.2 47.2 -4.24 -13.08 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-12
zew economic sentiment index 63.3 79.8 -0.206767 0.0674536 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-07-31
Manufacturing sector 18.5 11.7 0.581197 -1.55556 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -7.9 -8.2 -0.0365854 -0.515337 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Construction sector 1.4 -0.1 -15 -3.33333 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -8 -14.9 -0.463087 -0.807692 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Services sector 5.4 -3.4 -2.58824 -1.17822 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01

Germany’s business confidence icnreased to 92.1 by 1.32% on December 2020 from 90.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s business confidence decreased by -3.56%. Germany’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 92.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.2583.Germany’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 94.2 by -289.0% on January 2021 from 97.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -446.0%. Germany’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 94.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.0667.Germany’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 58.3 by 0.87% on December 2020 from 57.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s manufacturing pmi increased by 33.41%. Germany’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 58.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.075.Germany’s services pmi icnreased to 47.7 by 3.7% on December 2020 from 46.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s services pmi decreased by -9.83%. Germany’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 47.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.7.Germany’s composite pmi icnreased to 52.5 by 1.55% on December 2020 from 51.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s composite pmi increased by 4.58%. Germany’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 52.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.4333.Germany’s zew economic current index decreased to 45.2 by -424.0% on January 2021 from 47.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s zew economic current index decreased by -1308.0%. Germany’s zew economic current index trend is down since the current value of 45.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.5083.Germany’s zew economic sentiment index icnreased to 26.7 by 149.53% on January 2020 from 10.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s zew economic sentiment index decreased by -278.0%. Germany’s zew economic sentiment index trend is down since the current value of 26.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.64167.Germany’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -6.5 by 156.0% on January 2021 from -6.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -5988.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -6.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.5083.Germany’s Consumer sector icnreased to -11.6 by 2211.0% on January 2021 from -9.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer sector increased by 48000.0%. Germany’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -11.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.96667.Germany’s Construction sector On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction sector decreased by -9286.0%. Germany’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.25.Germany’s Retail sector icnreased to -10.1 by 12954.0% on January 2021 from -4.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail sector increased by 9804.0%. Germany’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -10.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2333.Germany’s Services sector decreased to -5.5 by -120000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services sector decreased by -13819.0%. Germany’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.35.

Germany IFO indicators

SELECT * FROM xmacs where amcrid in (2854, 2855, 2856) order by field(amcrid,2854, 2855, 2856)
Tankan Indicators Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
IFO Business Climate 99.2 96.6 0.0269151 0.230769 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
IFO Business Expectations 102.9 99.2 0.0372984 0.250304 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
IFO Current Conditions 95.7 94.2 0.0159236 0.211392 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Germany’s IFO Business Climate decreased to 99.2 by -90.0% on January 2021 from 100.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s IFO Business Climate decreased by -720.0%. Germany’s IFO Business Climate trend is down since the current value of 99.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.725.Germany’s IFO Business Expectations decreased to 93.8 by -53.0% on January 2021 from 94.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s IFO Business Expectations decreased by -657.0%. Germany’s IFO Business Expectations trend is down since the current value of 93.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 98.3917.Germany’s IFO Current Conditions decreased to 103.4 by -105.0% on January 2021 from 104.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s IFO Current Conditions decreased by -408.0%. Germany’s IFO Current Conditions trend is down since the current value of 103.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.008.


 

Germany Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -0.3 -6.9 -0.956522 -0.968085 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-07-31
car registrations 274152 230635 0.188683 0.244607 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -20.1 -20.5 -0.0195122 -0.600398 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 1.4 2 -0.3 -1.37838 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 35 38 -0.0789474 -0.172577 1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 37.6 40.5 -0.0716049 -0.422427 -1.0 -1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -9.4 -9.1 0.032967 -0.423313 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 15.8 15.9 -0.00628931 0.253968 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 30.2 32.2 -0.0621118 0.253112 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01

Germany’s consumer confidence icnreased to -7.3 by 7.35% on January 2021 from -6.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s consumer confidence decreased by -175.26%. Germany’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.29167.Germany’s car registrations icnreased to 290150.0 by 5.78% on November 2020 from 274303.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s car registrations decreased by -3.0%. Germany’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 290150.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 240805.0.Germany’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -32.0 by 2955.0% on January 2021 from -24.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 7112.0%. Germany’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -32.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.4.Germany’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to -0.3 by -15000.0% on January 2021 from 0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -10361.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.70833.Germany’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 28.4 by 798.0% on January 2021 from 26.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 35.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 28.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.9167.Germany’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 48.6 by 2242.0% on January 2021 from 39.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 15051.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 48.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.8083.Germany’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased to -10.9 by -439.0% on January 2021 from -11.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 6029.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.375.Germany’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to 16.0 by 1679.0% on January 2021 from 13.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 4953.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.4.Germany’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 24.9 by -1139.0% on January 2021 from 28.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -1384.0%. Germany’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.1.


Germany Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 65.1 64.4 0.0108696 0.440265 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector 18.5 11.7 0.581197 -1.55556 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books 10.1 0.9 10.2222 -1.27596 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 30.6 23.4 0.307692 -7.65217 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 35.9 21.9 0.639269 -1.96247 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books 3 -4.5 -1.66667 -1.07833 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -9 -4.1 1.19512 -1.46154 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 36.5 30.3 0.20462 -1.83333 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
industrial production 17.3 27.6 -0.373188 -1.92021 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -1.6 -2 -0.2 -5 -1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-02-28
capacity utilization 86.2 81.8 0.0537897 -0.0171038 1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-04-01

Germany’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 58.3 by 0.87% on December 2020 from 57.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s manufacturing pmi increased by 33.41%. Germany’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 58.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.075.Germany’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -6.5 by 156.0% on January 2021 from -6.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -5988.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -6.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.5083.Germany’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -20.2 by -2348.0% on January 2021 from -26.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased by -2171.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -20.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.75.Germany’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 2.5 by 870.0% on January 2021 from 2.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) increased by 870.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.241667.Germany’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 16.4 by -2407.0% on January 2021 from 21.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -34848.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 16.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.89167.Germany’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -24.6 by -1934.0% on January 2021 from -30.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased by -1277.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.6917.Germany’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 4.9 by -2222.0% on January 2021 from 6.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -6644.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.8333.Germany’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 5.7 by -5778.0% on January 2021 from 13.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -16868.0%. Germany’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.93333.Germany’s industrial production decreased to -3.0 by -60.53% on October 2020 from -7.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s industrial production decreased by -33.33%. Germany’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.74167.Germany’s industrial production mom icnreased to 3.2 by 39.13% on October 2020 from 2.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s industrial production mom decreased by -420.0%. Germany’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 3.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0166667.Germany’s capacity utilization icnreased to 79.8 by 6.54% on October 2020 from 74.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s capacity utilization decreased by -8.9%. Germany’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 79.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 83.0667.

Germany Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 57.5 52.8 0.0890151 0.215645 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Services sector 5.4 -3.4 -2.58824 -1.17822 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 18.9 17.5 0.08 -1.52066 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 14.7 13.8 0.0652174 -17.3333 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -5.1 -13.5 -0.622222 -0.848665 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 2.4 -14.3 -1.16783 -1.11483 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -2.2 -3.2 -0.3125 -0.671642 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 7.1 4.5 0.577778 -1.48966 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01

Germany’s services pmi icnreased to 47.7 by 3.7% on December 2020 from 46.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s services pmi decreased by -9.83%. Germany’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 47.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.7.Germany’s Services sector decreased to -5.5 by -120000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services sector decreased by -13819.0%. Germany’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.35.Germany’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -5.8 by -27059.0% on January 2021 from 3.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12589.0%. Germany’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.79167.Germany’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 5.5 by -2667.0% on January 2021 from 7.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -6519.0%. Germany’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.2583.Germany’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -9.2 by 14865.0% on January 2021 from -3.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -25862.0%. Germany’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.7667.Germany’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased to -1.3 by -17647.0% on January 2021 from 1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -10867.0%. Germany’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.06667.Germany’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -2.7 by -77500.0% on January 2021 from 0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -14576.0%. Germany’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.725.Germany’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to 2.4 by 38000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -8168.0%. Germany’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.583333.

Germany Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -8 -14.9 -0.463087 -0.807692 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -2.9 -13.8 -0.789855 -0.942 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 25.2 16.9 0.491124 -3.625 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 1.8 -15.5 -1.11613 -1.05085 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 12.7 17.8 -0.286517 -0.573825 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -13.2 -11.4 0.157895 -0.778151 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -2.5 -9.3 -0.731183 -0.90942 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
retail sales -2.4 5.1 -1.47059 -1.53333 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 4.2 -6.8 -1.61765 -0.671875 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-05-31

Germany’s Retail sector icnreased to -10.1 by 12954.0% on January 2021 from -4.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail sector increased by 9804.0%. Germany’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -10.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2333.Germany’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -10.7 by 34583.0% on January 2021 from -2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 5735.0%. Germany’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.8333.Germany’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 12.0 by 1009.0% on January 2021 from 10.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -2000.0%. Germany’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.00833.Germany’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to 10.6 by -3026.0% on January 2021 from 15.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -5047.0%. Germany’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.6.Germany’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 14.4 by 4257.0% on January 2021 from 10.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -3302.0%. Germany’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 14.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.3167.Germany’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -26.5 by 4481.0% on January 2021 from -18.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) increased by 7550.0%. Germany’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -25.9417.Germany’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -5.8 by 20526.0% on January 2021 from -1.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) increased by 106000.0%. Germany’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.36667.Germany’s retail sales icnreased to 8.2 by 17.14% on October 2020 from 7.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s retail sales increased by 256.52%. Germany’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 8.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.Germany’s retail sales MoM decreased to 2.6 by -236.84% on October 2020 from -1.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s retail sales MoM decreased by -750.0%. Germany’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.691667.

Germany Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
construction pmi 47 44.5 0.0561798 0.138015 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Construction sector 1.4 -0.1 -15 -3.33333 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books 0.2 1.4 -0.857143 -0.989362 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 11.4 -0.8 -15.25 -1.72152 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 2.6 -1.6 -2.625 -1.49057 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
building permits 29027 26043 0.11458 0.0208553 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
housing index 201.81 199.34 0.0123909 0.130525 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -6 0.4 -16 1.22222 1.0 -1.0 0.9 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 52.7 62.6 -0.158147 0.0733198 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 15.9 17.6 -0.0965909 0.204545 -1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 12.6 5 1.52 -64 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 24 13.7 0.751825 0.538462 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 15.3 5.1 2 1.15493 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 0.7 1.2 -0.416667 -0.611111 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 6.8 9 -0.244444 -0.786834 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Germany’s construction pmi icnreased to 45.6 by 0.88% on November 2020 from 45.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s construction pmi decreased by -13.14%. Germany’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 45.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.9333.Germany’s Construction sector On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction sector decreased by -9286.0%. Germany’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.25.Germany’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -3.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -11765.0%. Germany’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.5.Germany’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -8.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from -6.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -17273.0%. Germany’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.41667.Germany’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -6923.0%. Germany’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.41667.Germany’s building permits icnreased to 26760.0 by 1.17% on October 2020 from 26450.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s building permits decreased by -5.48%. Germany’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 26760.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27434.9.Germany’s housing index icnreased to 186.97 by 0.94% on November 2020 from 185.23 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s housing index increased by 10.29%. Germany’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 186.97 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 178.388.Germany’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -10.0 by -909.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 90000.0%. Germany’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.25.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 51.0 by -556.0% on January 2021 from 54.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -377.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 51.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 53.5833.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 18.0 by -526.0% on January 2021 from 19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 6364.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.25.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 8.0 by -2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -5294.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.75.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 10.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -909.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.25.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 2.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 10000.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.58333.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 2.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 10000.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.66667.Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 13.0 by 1818.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 6250.0%. Germany’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.25.

Germany GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 768.782 782.929 -0.0180693 -0.0419768 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -3.1 -3.3 -0.0606061 -2.40909 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-01-01
gdp 3845.63 3949.55 -0.0263119 0.124049 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth -1.8 0.5 -4.6 -3.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.158333 2021-01-01

Germany’s Real GDP icnreased to 777.141 by 8.48% on July 2020 from 716.389 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s Real GDP decreased by -2.55%. Germany’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 777.141 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 795.675.Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.0 by -64.6% on July 2020 from -11.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gdp growth annual decreased by -229.03%. Germany’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.541667.Germany’s gdp decreased to 3845.63 by -2.63% on January 2019 from 3949.55 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gdp increased by 12.4%. Germany’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 3845.63 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3641.74.Germany’s gdp growth decreased to 8.5 by -186.74% on July 2020 from -9.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gdp growth increased by 1114.29%. Germany’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 8.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0666667.

Germany inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2.3 2.5 -0.08 2.83333 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 1.7 1.9 -0.105263 0.307692 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 109.1 108.7 0.00367985 0.0234522 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 111.8 110.4 0.0126812 0.0854369 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
PPI Index 8.5 7.2 0.180556 -5.72222 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30

Germany’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.3 by 50.0% on November 2020 from -0.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s inflation cpi decreased by -127.27%. Germany’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.75.Germany’s core inflation rate On a year on year basis Germany’s core inflation rate decreased by -61.54%. Germany’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.125.Germany’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 105.1 by -0.76% on November 2020 from 105.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.19%. Germany’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 105.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 105.825.Germany’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 103.9 by 0.19% on November 2020 from 103.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.48%. Germany’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 103.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.817.Germany’s PPI Index decreased to -0.5 by -28.57% on November 2020 from -0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s PPI Index decreased by -28.57%. Germany’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.991667.

Germany Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -4.2 1.5 -3.8 1.47059 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -57.2 -68.41 -0.163865 -6.97576 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-10-01
government revenues 410.11 370.02 0.108345 0.0698001 1.0 1.0 0.25 2020-10-01
fiscal expenditure 467.31 438.43 0.0658714 0.250227 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-10-01

Germany’s Government budget decreased to -1.741 by -126.78% on January 2020 from 6.502 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s Government budget decreased by -115.02%. Germany’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -1.741 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.5527.Germany’s government revenues decreased to 354.65 by -6.67% on February 2020 from 380.006 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s government revenues increased by 2.46%. Germany’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 354.65 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 377.111.Germany’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 422.87 by 10.77% on February 2020 from 381.747 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s fiscal expenditure increased by 27.09%. Germany’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 422.87 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 373.461.

Germany Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 2562 2551.4 0.00415458 0.341642 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-04-30
banks balance sheet 9329.29 9321.22 0.000865766 0.0292492 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-30
money supply m1 2764.3 2736.8 0.0100482 0.103513 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 3527.8 3518.3 0.00270017 0.0641289 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
money supply m3 3555.9 3541.3 0.00412278 0.0639399 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31

Germany’s interest rate Germany’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Germany’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 2450.9 by 2.36% on November 2020 from 2394.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s central bank balance sheet increased by 38.84%. Germany’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 2450.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2069.21.Germany’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 9183.17 by 0.31% on October 2020 from 9155.22 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s banks balance sheet increased by 8.11%. Germany’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 9183.17 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8895.55.Germany’s money supply m2 icnreased to 3406.6 by 0.86% on October 2020 from 3377.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s money supply m2 increased by 8.12%. Germany’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 3406.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3275.45.

 

Germany Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 104.5 100.2 0.0429142 0.321113 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 3.7 3.8 -0.0263158 -0.0263158 -1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 7.5 7.7 -0.025974 0.0869565 -1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 1.2 1.1 0.0909091 -0.294118 -1.0 -1.0 0.391667 2021-01-01

Germany’s EEI – Employment Composite icnreased to 96.4 by 42.0% on January 2021 from 96.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Germany’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -766.0%. Germany’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 96.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 93.4667.Germany’s unemployment rate On a year on year basis Germany’s unemployment rate increased by 45.16%. Germany’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.88333.Germany’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 6.0 by -1.64% on September 2020 from 6.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s youth unemployment rate increased by 7.14%. Germany’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.88333.Germany’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 1.1 by -8.33% on October 2019 from 1.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -31.25%. Germany’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.39167.


Germany Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 13100 21000 -0.37619 0.851326 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 7 7.5 -0.0666667 0.22807 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 126500 107898 0.172404 0.161275 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31
imports 105900 89700 0.180602 0.154757 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
balance of trade 12300 15244.6 -0.193157 0.768947 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
capital flows 43567.5 27559.8 0.580835 1.07249 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-02-28
foreign direct investment 1821.22 18881.1 -0.903543 -0.865307 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-02-28

Germany’s current account decreased to 22500.0 by -10.71% on October 2020 from 25200.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s current account increased by 18.91%. Germany’s current account trend is down since the current value of 22500.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19625.9.Germany’s current account to gdp decreased to 7.1 by -4.05% on January 2019 from 7.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Germany’s current account to gdp increased by 4.41%. Germany’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 7.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.01667.Germany’s exports icnreased to 112000.0 by 1.97% on October 2020 from 109834.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s exports decreased by -6.28%. Germany’s exports trend is down since the current value of 112000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100291.0.Germany’s imports icnreased to 92700.0 by 3.87% on October 2020 from 89248.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s imports decreased by -5.88%. Germany’s imports trend is down since the current value of 92700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85144.0.Germany’s balance of trade decreased to 19400.0 by -5.76% on October 2020 from 20585.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s balance of trade decreased by -8.72%. Germany’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 19400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15132.2.Germany’s bank lending rate decreased to 1.99 by -0.5% on October 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s bank lending rate increased by 3.11%. Germany’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.99 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.94333.Germany’s capital flows icnreased to 27267.9 by 112.0% on October 2020 from 12862.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s capital flows decreased by -13.01%. Germany’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 27267.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19506.5.Germany’s foreign direct investment decreased to 9675.34 by -900.06% on October 2020 from -1209.32 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s foreign direct investment decreased by -622.54%. Germany’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 9675.34 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5722.58.


Germany Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 213600 221201 -0.0343624 -0.0554315 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 3361.14 3362.45 -0.000389597 -0.00369338 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-01-01

Germany’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 212286.0 by -6.8% on November 2020 from 227767.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 7.73%. Germany’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 212286.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 220452.0.Germany’s gold reserves decreased to 3362.45 by -0.03% on May 2020 from 3363.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s gold reserves decreased by -0.33%. Germany’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 3362.45 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3368.26.Germany’s government debt icnreased to 2195140.0 by 4.08% on July 2020 from 2109190.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s government debt increased by 11.15%. Germany’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2195140.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1969100.0.Germany’s government debt to gdp decreased to 59.8 by -3.39% on January 2019 from 61.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Germany’s government debt to gdp decreased by -6.12%. Germany’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 59.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 71.7917.Germany’s external debt icnreased to 5534330.0 by 3.03% on May 2020 from 5371450.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s external debt increased by 19.04%. Germany’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 5534330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5017730.0.


Germany Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2205400 2171820 0.0154617 0.131444 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 69.8 59.7 0.169179 0.0705521 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 5706730 5512140 0.0353021 0.227621 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-01-01

Germany’s government debt icnreased to 2195140.0 by 4.08% on July 2020 from 2109190.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s government debt increased by 11.15%. Germany’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2195140.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1969100.0.Germany’s government debt to gdp decreased to 59.8 by -3.39% on January 2019 from 61.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Germany’s government debt to gdp decreased by -6.12%. Germany’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 59.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 71.7917.Germany’s external debt icnreased to 5534330.0 by 3.03% on May 2020 from 5371450.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s external debt increased by 19.04%. Germany’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 5534330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5017730.0.


Germany Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate -0.54 -0.54 0 0.317073 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-02-28
bank lending rate 1.89 1.9 -0.00526316 0.0327869 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 1657.23 1623.41 0.0208327 0.159332 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-09-01

Germany’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.408 by 11.78% on August 2019 from -0.365 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s interbank rate increased by 27.9%. Germany’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.408 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.326167.Germany’s balance of trade decreased to 19400.0 by -5.76% on October 2020 from 20585.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s balance of trade decreased by -8.72%. Germany’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 19400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15132.2.Germany’s bank lending rate decreased to 1.99 by -0.5% on October 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Germany’s bank lending rate increased by 3.11%. Germany’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.99 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.94333.Germany’s loans to private sector icnreased to 1616.75 by 0.2% on July 2020 from 1613.46 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Germany’s loans to private sector increased by 16.09%. Germany’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 1616.75 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1519.42.

Germany macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Germany economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Germany Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Germany Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Germany’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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