DAX closed down by -2.32% to 15422.5 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.22% on a weekly basis. DAX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. DAX trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. DAX momentum exhaustion is 1.12955 indicating DAX is oversold.DAX RSI is 61.531 .
DAX Index Chart
DAX Index Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the DAX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the DAX trading signals presented in the DAX statistics table.
DAX closed at 15422.5 on 23 January 2021. DAX trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. DAX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. DAX momentum exhaustion is 1.12955 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating DAX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. DAX RSI was last calculated at 61.531. DAX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 13426.0 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 12995.2 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 12331.5 in an uptrend. DAX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.32%, and weekly return was last recorded at -0.22%. DAX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 16.7283%, DAX alpha None, DAX beta None and DAX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor DAX statistics based on historical data since 1970.
DAX Index News
DAX related Indicators
|Germany ETF||Stock Index ETF||EWG||34.23||1||1||1.43133||64.2818||-2.23||-1.98||-2.76||0.10119|
|Germany PMI vs Stocks||Stock Index vs PMI Factor||DE.FACT.STPMI||13382.3|
|Germany ESI vs Stocks||Stock Index vs ESI Factor||DE.FACT.STESI||11788.3|
|DAX (GDAXI) seasonality||Seasonality||SEAS.DAX|
|FGBX 30Y German Bunds||FGBX||212.16||1||1||1.12358||53.2762||2.01||4.8||4.01||0.12501|
|FGBL 10Y German Bunds||FGBL||175.53||1||1||1.59985||63.3883||0.68||1.95||2.96||0.04096|
|Germany 10-Year Bond Yield||DE.10Y||-0.39||0.5||-0.5||-0.87647||50.2774||22.64||125.43||72.57||1.64352|
|Germany 5-Year Bond Yield||DE.5Y||-0.68||1||-0.75||-0.89582||47.3181||10.75||23.41||12.58||0.47287|
|Germany 2-year bond yield||DE.2Y||-0.71||0||0||-0.1711||57.4426||7.09||9.91||4.57||0.20543|
|Germany Yield Curve||DE.YC||0.32||-1||-1||-1.33876||40.9082||-7.25||-32.35||-29.36||-0.62735|
|Germany Credit Default Swaps||CDS.Germany||9.92||0||-1||-0.69392||45.8974||0.97||-2.15||-3.76||-0.18049|
Germany Economic Indicators
|balance of trade||12300||15244.6||-0.193157||0.768947||-1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|bank lending rate||1.89||1.9||-0.00526316||0.0327869||-1.0||1.0||1||2021-05-31|
|banks balance sheet||9329.29||9321.22||0.000865766||0.0292492||1.0||1.0||0.583333||2021-04-30|
|central bank balance sheet||2562||2551.4||0.00415458||0.341642||1.0||1.0||0.716667||2021-04-30|
|consumer price index cpi||109.1||108.7||0.00367985||0.0234522||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-06-30|
|core inflation rate||1.7||1.9||-0.105263||0.307692||1.0||1.0||0.8||2021-06-30|
|current account to gdp||7||7.5||-0.0666667||0.22807||-1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|foreign direct investment||1821.22||18881.1||-0.903543||-0.865307||-1.0||-1.0||0.35||2021-02-28|
|foreign exchange reserves||213600||221201||-0.0343624||-0.0554315||-1.0||-1.0||0.166667||2021-06-30|
|gdp growth annual||-3.1||-3.3||-0.0606061||-2.40909||-1.0||-1.0||0.15||2021-01-01|
|government debt to gdp||69.8||59.7||0.169179||0.0705521||-1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|industrial production mom||-1.6||-2||-0.2||-5||-1.0||-1.0||0.116667||2021-02-28|
|loans to private sector||1657.23||1623.41||0.0208327||0.159332||1.0||1.0||0.95||2020-09-01|
|long term unemployment rate||1.2||1.1||0.0909091||-0.294118||-1.0||-1.0||0.391667||2021-01-01|
|money supply m1||2764.3||2736.8||0.0100482||0.103513||1.0||1.0||0.783333||2021-05-31|
|money supply m2||3527.8||3518.3||0.00270017||0.0641289||1.0||1.0||0.7||2021-05-31|
|money supply m3||3555.9||3541.3||0.00412278||0.0639399||1.0||1.0||0.733333||2021-05-31|
|Producer Price Index||111.8||110.4||0.0126812||0.0854369||1.0||1.0||1||2021-06-30|
|retail sales MoM||4.2||-6.8||-1.61765||-0.671875||1.0||-1.0||0.6||2021-05-31|
|youth unemployment rate||7.5||7.7||-0.025974||0.0869565||-1.0||1.0||0.766667||2021-05-31|
|zew economic sentiment index||63.3||79.8||-0.206767||0.0674536||-1.0||1.0||0.583333||2021-07-31|
|zew economic current index||45.2||47.2||-4.24||-13.08||-1.0||-1.0||0||2021-01-12|
|IFO Business Climate||99.2||96.6||0.0269151||0.230769||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|IFO Business Expectations||102.9||99.2||0.0372984||0.250304||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|IFO Current Conditions||95.7||94.2||0.0159236||0.211392||1.0||1.0||1||2021-05-31|
|ESI - Economic Composite||109.4||103.7||0.0549662||0.492497||1.0||1.0||1||2021-04-01|
DAX Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: DAX momentum, DAX trend, DAX oscillator, DAX RSI and DAX returns.
DAX MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarDAX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The DAX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the DAX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. DAX momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when DAX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
DAX trendDAX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. DAX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX Closing price vs DAX moving average (MA) calculation: If DAX is greater than DAX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. DAX Moving average slope calculation: if current DAX moving average is higher than the previous MA, DAX upward slope +1, else -1
DAX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. DAX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when DAX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The DAX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. DAX is in an uptrend when DAX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the DAX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the DAX oscillator and DAX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
DAX oscillatorThe DAX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current DAX price versus DAX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the DAX oscillator is:
DAX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days DAX simple moving average price) / (250 days DAX price standard deviation)
DAX oversold conditions
DAX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the DAX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the DAX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the DAX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of DAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the DAX RSI.
DAX overbought conditions
DAX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the DAX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the DAX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the DAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
DAX RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when DAX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During DAX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
DAX returnsMacroVar calculates DAX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
DAX returns = (DAX Closing Price – DAX Previous Price)/(DAX Previous Price)