DAX Index

DAX closed down by -2.32% to 15422.5 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.22% on a weekly basis. DAX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. DAX trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. DAX momentum exhaustion is 1.12955 indicating DAX is oversold.DAX RSI is 61.531 .

DAX Index Chart

DAX Index

DAX Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the DAX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the DAX trading signals presented in the DAX statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
DAX DAX 15422.5 0.5 1 1.12955 61.531 -2.32 -0.22 1.14 0.0378

DAX closed at 15422.5 on 23 January 2021. DAX trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. DAX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. DAX momentum exhaustion is 1.12955 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating DAX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. DAX RSI was last calculated at 61.531. DAX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 13426.0 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 12995.2 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 12331.5 in an uptrend. DAX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.32%, and weekly return was last recorded at -0.22%. DAX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 16.7283%, DAX alpha None, DAX beta None and DAX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor DAX statistics based on historical data since 1970.

DAX Index News

DAX Factors

DAX

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Germany PMI vs Stocks DE.FACT.STPMI 13382.3 50.9596 -2.29509
Germany ESI vs Stocks DE.FACT.STESI 11788.3 100.437 -0.906527

DAX related Indicators

DAX

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Germany ETF Stock Index ETF EWG 34.23 1 1 1.43133 64.2818 -2.23 -1.98 -2.76 0.10119
Germany PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor DE.FACT.STPMI 13382.3
Germany ESI vs Stocks Stock Index vs ESI Factor DE.FACT.STESI 11788.3
DAX (GDAXI) seasonality Seasonality SEAS.DAX

Germany Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
DAX DAX 15422.5 0.5 1 1.12955 61.531 -2.32 -0.22 1.14 0.0378
Germany ETF EWG 34.23 1 1 1.43133 64.2818 -2.23 -1.98 -2.76 0.10119
FGBX 30Y German Bunds FGBX 212.16 1 1 1.12358 53.2762 2.01 4.8 4.01 0.12501
FGBL 10Y German Bunds FGBL 175.53 1 1 1.59985 63.3883 0.68 1.95 2.96 0.04096
German 30Y DE.30Y 0.09 1 -1 -1.1607 44.8356 -52.13 -73.99 -72.64 -1.92271
Germany 10-Year Bond Yield DE.10Y -0.39 0.5 -0.5 -0.87647 50.2774 22.64 125.43 72.57 1.64352
Germany 5-Year Bond Yield DE.5Y -0.68 1 -0.75 -0.89582 47.3181 10.75 23.41 12.58 0.47287
Germany 2-year bond yield DE.2Y -0.71 0 0 -0.1711 57.4426 7.09 9.91 4.57 0.20543
Germany Yield Curve DE.YC 0.32 -1 -1 -1.33876 40.9082 -7.25 -32.35 -29.36 -0.62735
Germany Credit Default Swaps CDS.Germany 9.92 0 -1 -0.69392 45.8974 0.97 -2.15 -3.76 -0.18049

Germany Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 12300 15244.6 -0.193157 0.768947 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
bank lending rate 1.89 1.9 -0.00526316 0.0327869 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 9329.29 9321.22 0.000865766 0.0292492 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-30
building permits 29027 26043 0.11458 0.0208553 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
business confidence 101.8 99.2 0.0262097 0.180974 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
capacity utilization 86.2 81.8 0.0537897 -0.0171038 1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
capital flows 43567.5 27559.8 0.580835 1.07249 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-02-28
car registrations 274152 230635 0.188683 0.244607 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
central bank balance sheet 2562 2551.4 0.00415458 0.341642 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-04-30
composite pmi 60.1 56.2 0.069395 0.278723 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
construction pmi 47 44.5 0.0561798 0.138015 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
consumer confidence -0.3 -6.9 -0.956522 -0.968085 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-07-31
consumer price index cpi 109.1 108.7 0.00367985 0.0234522 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 1.7 1.9 -0.105263 0.307692 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
current account 13100 21000 -0.37619 0.851326 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 7 7.5 -0.0666667 0.22807 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 126500 107898 0.172404 0.161275 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31
external debt 5706730 5512140 0.0353021 0.227621 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 467.31 438.43 0.0658714 0.250227 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-10-01
foreign direct investment 1821.22 18881.1 -0.903543 -0.865307 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-02-28
foreign exchange reserves 213600 221201 -0.0343624 -0.0554315 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-06-30
gdp 3845.63 3949.55 -0.0263119 0.124049 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 768.782 782.929 -0.0180693 -0.0419768 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
gdp growth -1.8 0.5 -4.6 -3.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.158333 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -3.1 -3.3 -0.0606061 -2.40909 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-01-01
gold reserves 3361.14 3362.45 -0.000389597 -0.00369338 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
government budget -4.2 1.5 -3.8 1.47059 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -57.2 -68.41 -0.163865 -6.97576 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-10-01
government debt 2205400 2171820 0.0154617 0.131444 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 69.8 59.7 0.169179 0.0705521 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
government revenues 410.11 370.02 0.108345 0.0698001 1.0 1.0 0.25 2020-10-01
housing index 201.81 199.34 0.0123909 0.130525 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
imports 105900 89700 0.180602 0.154757 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
industrial production 17.3 27.6 -0.373188 -1.92021 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -1.6 -2 -0.2 -5 -1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-02-28
inflation cpi 2.3 2.5 -0.08 2.83333 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
interbank rate -0.54 -0.54 0 0.317073 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-02-28
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
loans to private sector 1657.23 1623.41 0.0208327 0.159332 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-09-01
long term unemployment rate 1.2 1.1 0.0909091 -0.294118 -1.0 -1.0 0.391667 2021-01-01
manufacturing pmi 65.1 64.4 0.0108696 0.440265 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
money supply m1 2764.3 2736.8 0.0100482 0.103513 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 3527.8 3518.3 0.00270017 0.0641289 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
money supply m3 3555.9 3541.3 0.00412278 0.0639399 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 111.8 110.4 0.0126812 0.0854369 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
PPI Index 8.5 7.2 0.180556 -5.72222 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30
retail sales MoM 4.2 -6.8 -1.61765 -0.671875 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-05-31
retail sales -2.4 5.1 -1.47059 -1.53333 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-05-31
services pmi 57.5 52.8 0.0890151 0.215645 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 3.7 3.8 -0.0263158 -0.0263158 -1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 7.5 7.7 -0.025974 0.0869565 -1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
zew economic sentiment index 63.3 79.8 -0.206767 0.0674536 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-07-31
zew economic current index 45.2 47.2 -4.24 -13.08 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-12
IFO Business Climate 99.2 96.6 0.0269151 0.230769 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
IFO Business Expectations 102.9 99.2 0.0372984 0.250304 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
IFO Current Conditions 95.7 94.2 0.0159236 0.211392 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
Construction sector 1.4 -0.1 -15 -3.33333 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -7.9 -8.2 -0.0365854 -0.515337 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 18.5 11.7 0.581197 -1.55556 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -8 -14.9 -0.463087 -0.807692 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Services sector 5.4 -3.4 -2.58824 -1.17822 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 109.4 103.7 0.0549662 0.492497 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01

DAX Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: DAX momentum, DAX trend, DAX oscillator, DAX RSI and DAX returns.

DAX Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarDAX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The DAX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the DAX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. DAX momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when DAX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

DAX trend

DAX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. DAX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. DAX Closing price vs DAX moving average (MA) calculation: If DAX is greater than DAX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. DAX Moving average slope calculation: if current DAX moving average is higher than the previous MA, DAX upward slope +1, else -1
DAX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. DAX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when DAX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The DAX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. DAX is in an uptrend when DAX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the DAX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the DAX oscillator and DAX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

DAX oscillator

The DAX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current DAX price versus DAX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the DAX oscillator is:
DAX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days DAX simple moving average price) / (250 days DAX price standard deviation)

DAX oversold conditions
DAX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the DAX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the DAX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the DAX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of DAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the DAX RSI.
DAX overbought conditions
DAX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the DAX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the DAX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the DAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

DAX RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when DAX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During DAX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

DAX returns

MacroVar calculates DAX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

DAX returns = (DAX Closing Price – DAX Previous Price)/(DAX Previous Price)
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