VDAX index

VDAX closed up by 16.01% to 20.22 on 23 January 2021 and +6.37% on a weekly basis. VDAX momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 indicating negative momentum. VDAX trend is -25.0/100 indicating a negative trend. VDAX momentum exhaustion is -0.47052 indicating VDAX is oversold.VDAX RSI is 49.4613 .

VDAX index Chart

VDAX index

VDAX index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the VDAX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the VDAX trading signals presented in the VDAX statistics table.


VDAX closed at 20.22 on 23 January 2021. VDAX trend was last calculated at -25.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. VDAX momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. VDAX momentum exhaustion is -0.47052 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating VDAX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. VDAX RSI was last calculated at 49.4613. VDAX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 24.25 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 26.5262 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 30.6532 in an uptrend. VDAX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 16.01%, and weekly return was last recorded at 6.37%. VDAX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 101.304%, VDAX alpha None, VDAX beta None and VDAX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor VDAX statistics based on historical data since 1970.

VDAX Factors


FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal

VDAX index News

VDAX Factors


FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal

Germany Markets

Germany ETFEWG34.23111.4313364.2818-2.23-1.98-2.760.10119
FGBX 30Y German BundsFGBX212.16111.1235853.27622.
FGBL 10Y German BundsFGBL175.53111.5998563.38830.681.952.960.04096
German 30YDE.30Y0.091-1-1.160744.8356-52.13-73.99-72.64-1.92271
Germany 10-Year Bond YieldDE.10Y-0.390.5-0.5-0.8764750.277422.64125.4372.571.64352
Germany 5-Year Bond YieldDE.5Y-0.681-0.75-0.8958247.318110.7523.4112.580.47287
Germany 2-year bond yieldDE.2Y-0.7100-0.171157.44267.099.914.570.20543
Germany Yield CurveDE.YC0.32-1-1-1.3387640.9082-7.25-32.35-29.36-0.62735
Germany Credit Default SwapsCDS.Germany9.920-1-0.6939245.89740.97-2.15-3.76-0.18049

Germany Economic Indicators

balance of trade1230015244.6-0.1931570.768947-
bank lending rate1.891.9-0.005263160.0327869-1.01.012021-05-31
banks balance sheet9329.299321.220.0008657660.02924921.01.00.5833332021-04-30
building permits29027260430.114580.02085531.01.00.5833332021-05-31
business confidence101.899.20.02620970.1809741.01.00.9666672021-06-30
capacity utilization86.281.80.0537897-0.01710381.0-1.00.32021-04-01
capital flows43567.527559.80.5808351.072491.01.00.8666672021-02-28
car registrations2741522306350.1886830.2446071.01.00.9333332021-06-30
central bank balance sheet25622551.40.004154580.3416421.01.00.7166672021-04-30
composite pmi60.156.20.0693950.2787231.01.00.952021-06-30
construction pmi4744.50.05617980.1380151.01.00.952021-06-30
consumer confidence-0.3-6.9-0.956522-0.9680851.01.00.2166672021-07-31
consumer price index cpi109.1108.70.003679850.02345221.01.00.9833332021-06-30
core inflation rate1.71.9-0.1052630.3076921.01.00.82021-06-30
current account1310021000-0.376190.851326-
current account to gdp77.5-0.06666670.22807-1.01.002020-01-31
external debt570673055121400.03530210.2276211.01.00.8666672021-01-01
fiscal expenditure467.31438.430.06587140.2502271.01.00.9666672020-10-01
foreign direct investment1821.2218881.1-0.903543-0.865307-1.0-1.00.352021-02-28
foreign exchange reserves213600221201-0.0343624-0.0554315-1.0-1.00.1666672021-06-30
Real GDP768.782782.929-0.0180693-0.0419768-1.0-1.00.03333332021-01-01
gdp growth-1.80.5-4.6-3.25-1.0-1.00.1583332021-01-01
gdp growth annual-3.1-3.3-0.0606061-2.40909-1.0-1.00.152021-01-01
gold reserves3361.143362.45-0.000389597-0.00369338-1.0-1.00.62021-01-01
government budget-4.21.5-3.81.47059-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget-57.2-68.41-0.163865-6.97576-1.0-1.00.03333332020-10-01
government debt220540021718200.01546170.1314441.01.00.7333332021-01-01
government debt to gdp69.859.70.1691790.0705521-1.01.002020-01-31
government revenues410.11370.020.1083450.06980011.01.00.252020-10-01
housing index201.81199.340.01239090.1305251.01.012021-06-30
industrial production17.327.6-0.373188-1.920211.01.00.152021-05-31
industrial production mom-1.6-2-0.2-5-1.0-1.00.1166672021-02-28
inflation cpi2.32.5-0.082.833331.01.00.852021-06-30
interbank rate-0.54-0.5400.317073-1.0-1.00.7333332021-02-28
interest rate0.050.05001.0-1.00.7916672016-03-09
loans to private sector1657.231623.410.02083270.1593321.01.00.952020-09-01
long term unemployment rate1.21.10.0909091-0.294118-1.0-1.00.3916672021-01-01
manufacturing pmi65.164.40.01086960.4402651.01.00.952021-06-30
money supply m12764.32736.80.01004820.1035131.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m23527.83518.30.002700170.06412891.01.00.72021-05-31
money supply m33555.93541.30.004122780.06393991.01.00.7333332021-05-31
Producer Price Index111.8110.40.01268120.08543691.01.012021-06-30
PPI Index8.57.20.180556-5.722221.01.00.052021-06-30
retail sales MoM4.2-6.8-1.61765-0.6718751.0-1.00.62021-05-31
retail sales-2.45.1-1.47059-1.53333-1.0-1.00.252021-05-31
services pmi57.552.80.08901510.2156451.01.00.952021-06-30
unemployment rate3.73.8-0.0263158-0.0263158-1.0-1.00.7166672021-05-31
youth unemployment rate7.57.7-0.0259740.0869565-
zew economic sentiment index63.379.8-0.2067670.0674536-
zew economic current index45.247.2-4.24-13.08-1.0-1.002021-01-12
IFO Business Climate99.296.60.02691510.2307691.01.00.9833332021-05-31
IFO Business Expectations102.999.20.03729840.2503041.01.00.9833332021-05-31
IFO Current Conditions95.794.20.01592360.2113921.01.012021-05-31
Construction sector1.4-0.1-15-3.333331.01.00.06666672021-04-01
Consumer sector-7.9-8.2-0.0365854-0.5153371.01.00.5833332021-04-01
Manufacturing sector18.511.70.581197-1.555561.01.00.3666672021-04-01
Retail sector-8-14.9-0.463087-0.8076921.01.00.12021-04-01
Services sector5.4-3.4-2.58824-1.178221.01.00.1666672021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite109.4103.70.05496620.4924971.01.012021-04-01

VDAX Trading Signals

MacroVar estimates the following signals: VDAX momentum, VDAX trend, VDAX oscillator, VDAX RSI and VDAX returns.

VDAX Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarVDAX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The VDAX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the VDAX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. VDAX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. VDAX index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when VDAX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

VDAX trend

VDAX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. VDAX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. VDAX Closing price vs VDAX moving average (MA) calculation: If VDAX is greater than VDAX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. VDAX Moving average slope calculation: if current VDAX moving average is higher than the previous MA, VDAX upward slope +1, else -1
VDAX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. VDAX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when VDAX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The VDAX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. VDAX is in an uptrend when VDAX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the VDAX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the VDAX oscillator and VDAX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

VDAX oscillator

The VDAX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current VDAX price versus VDAX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the VDAX oscillator is:
VDAX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days VDAX simple moving average price) / (250 days VDAX price standard deviation)

VDAX oversold conditions
VDAX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the VDAX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the VDAX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the VDAX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of VDAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the VDAX RSI.
VDAX overbought conditions
VDAX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the VDAX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the VDAX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the VDAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

VDAX RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when VDAX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During VDAX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

VDAX returns

MacroVar calculates VDAX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

VDAX returns = (VDAX Closing Price – VDAX Previous Price)/(VDAX Previous Price)
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