VDAX closed up by 16.01% to 20.22 on 23 January 2021 and +6.37% on a weekly basis. VDAX momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 indicating negative momentum. VDAX trend is -25.0/100 indicating a negative trend. VDAX momentum exhaustion is -0.47052 indicating VDAX is oversold.VDAX RSI is 49.4613 .
VDAX index Chart
VDAX index Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the VDAX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the VDAX trading signals presented in the VDAX statistics table.
VDAX closed at 20.22 on 23 January 2021. VDAX trend was last calculated at -25.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. VDAX momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. VDAX momentum exhaustion is -0.47052 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating VDAX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. VDAX RSI was last calculated at 49.4613. VDAX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 24.25 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 26.5262 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 30.6532 in an uptrend. VDAX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 16.01%, and weekly return was last recorded at 6.37%. VDAX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 101.304%, VDAX alpha None, VDAX beta None and VDAX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor VDAX statistics based on historical data since 1970.
|Factor||Symbol||Last Value||Predicted Value||R2||MacroVar Signal|
VDAX index News
|Factor||Symbol||Last Value||Predicted Value||R2||MacroVar Signal|
|FGBX 30Y German Bunds||FGBX||212.16||1||1||1.12358||53.2762||2.01||4.8||4.01||0.12501|
|FGBL 10Y German Bunds||FGBL||175.53||1||1||1.59985||63.3883||0.68||1.95||2.96||0.04096|
|Germany 10-Year Bond Yield||DE.10Y||-0.39||0.5||-0.5||-0.87647||50.2774||22.64||125.43||72.57||1.64352|
|Germany 5-Year Bond Yield||DE.5Y||-0.68||1||-0.75||-0.89582||47.3181||10.75||23.41||12.58||0.47287|
|Germany 2-year bond yield||DE.2Y||-0.71||0||0||-0.1711||57.4426||7.09||9.91||4.57||0.20543|
|Germany Yield Curve||DE.YC||0.32||-1||-1||-1.33876||40.9082||-7.25||-32.35||-29.36||-0.62735|
|Germany Credit Default Swaps||CDS.Germany||9.92||0||-1||-0.69392||45.8974||0.97||-2.15||-3.76||-0.18049|
Germany Economic Indicators
|balance of trade||12300||15244.6||-0.193157||0.768947||-1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|bank lending rate||1.89||1.9||-0.00526316||0.0327869||-1.0||1.0||1||2021-05-31|
|banks balance sheet||9329.29||9321.22||0.000865766||0.0292492||1.0||1.0||0.583333||2021-04-30|
|central bank balance sheet||2562||2551.4||0.00415458||0.341642||1.0||1.0||0.716667||2021-04-30|
|consumer price index cpi||109.1||108.7||0.00367985||0.0234522||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-06-30|
|core inflation rate||1.7||1.9||-0.105263||0.307692||1.0||1.0||0.8||2021-06-30|
|current account to gdp||7||7.5||-0.0666667||0.22807||-1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|foreign direct investment||1821.22||18881.1||-0.903543||-0.865307||-1.0||-1.0||0.35||2021-02-28|
|foreign exchange reserves||213600||221201||-0.0343624||-0.0554315||-1.0||-1.0||0.166667||2021-06-30|
|gdp growth annual||-3.1||-3.3||-0.0606061||-2.40909||-1.0||-1.0||0.15||2021-01-01|
|government debt to gdp||69.8||59.7||0.169179||0.0705521||-1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|industrial production mom||-1.6||-2||-0.2||-5||-1.0||-1.0||0.116667||2021-02-28|
|loans to private sector||1657.23||1623.41||0.0208327||0.159332||1.0||1.0||0.95||2020-09-01|
|long term unemployment rate||1.2||1.1||0.0909091||-0.294118||-1.0||-1.0||0.391667||2021-01-01|
|money supply m1||2764.3||2736.8||0.0100482||0.103513||1.0||1.0||0.783333||2021-05-31|
|money supply m2||3527.8||3518.3||0.00270017||0.0641289||1.0||1.0||0.7||2021-05-31|
|money supply m3||3555.9||3541.3||0.00412278||0.0639399||1.0||1.0||0.733333||2021-05-31|
|Producer Price Index||111.8||110.4||0.0126812||0.0854369||1.0||1.0||1||2021-06-30|
|retail sales MoM||4.2||-6.8||-1.61765||-0.671875||1.0||-1.0||0.6||2021-05-31|
|youth unemployment rate||7.5||7.7||-0.025974||0.0869565||-1.0||1.0||0.766667||2021-05-31|
|zew economic sentiment index||63.3||79.8||-0.206767||0.0674536||-1.0||1.0||0.583333||2021-07-31|
|zew economic current index||45.2||47.2||-4.24||-13.08||-1.0||-1.0||0||2021-01-12|
|IFO Business Climate||99.2||96.6||0.0269151||0.230769||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|IFO Business Expectations||102.9||99.2||0.0372984||0.250304||1.0||1.0||0.983333||2021-05-31|
|IFO Current Conditions||95.7||94.2||0.0159236||0.211392||1.0||1.0||1||2021-05-31|
|ESI - Economic Composite||109.4||103.7||0.0549662||0.492497||1.0||1.0||1||2021-04-01|
VDAX Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: VDAX momentum, VDAX trend, VDAX oscillator, VDAX RSI and VDAX returns.
VDAX MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarVDAX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The VDAX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the VDAX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. VDAX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. VDAX index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when VDAX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
VDAX trendVDAX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. VDAX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. VDAX Closing price vs VDAX moving average (MA) calculation: If VDAX is greater than VDAX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. VDAX Moving average slope calculation: if current VDAX moving average is higher than the previous MA, VDAX upward slope +1, else -1
VDAX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. VDAX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when VDAX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The VDAX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. VDAX is in an uptrend when VDAX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the VDAX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the VDAX oscillator and VDAX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
VDAX oscillatorThe VDAX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current VDAX price versus VDAX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the VDAX oscillator is:
VDAX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days VDAX simple moving average price) / (250 days VDAX price standard deviation)
VDAX oversold conditions
VDAX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the VDAX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the VDAX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the VDAX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of VDAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the VDAX RSI.
VDAX overbought conditions
VDAX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the VDAX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the VDAX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the VDAX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
VDAX RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when VDAX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During VDAX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
VDAX returnsMacroVar calculates VDAX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
VDAX returns = (VDAX Closing Price – VDAX Previous Price)/(VDAX Previous Price)