Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng closed down by -2.03% to 27224.6 on 23 January 2021 and +-3.83% on a weekly basis. Hang Seng momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Hang Seng trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Hang Seng momentum exhaustion is 1.22317 indicating Hang Seng is oversold.Hang Seng RSI is 65.8478 .

Hang Seng Index Chart

Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Hang Seng. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Hang Seng trading signals presented in the Hang Seng statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Hang SengHSI27224.610.751.2231765.8478-2.03-3.83-6.38-0.0242

Hang Seng closed at 27224.6 on 23 January 2021. Hang Seng trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Hang Seng momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Hang Seng momentum exhaustion is 1.22317 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Hang Seng is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Hang Seng RSI was last calculated at 65.8478. Hang Seng moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 26522.3 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 25803.7 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 25347.3 in a downtrend. Hang Seng annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.03%, and weekly return was last recorded at -3.83%. Hang Seng histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 13.4442%, Hang Seng alpha None, Hang Seng beta None and Hang Seng maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Hang Seng statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Hang Seng Index News

Hang Seng Factors

Hang Seng

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Hong Kong PMI vs StocksHK.FACT.STPMI2446046.4881-2.69707

Hang Seng related Indicators

Hang Seng

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Hong Kong ETFStock Index ETFEWH26.79112.2207571.74660.560.75-2.690.03651
Hong Kong PMI vs StocksStock Index vs PMI FactorHK.FACT.STPMI24460

Hong Kong Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Hang SengHSI27224.610.751.2231765.8478-2.03-3.83-6.38-0.0242
Hong Kong ETFEWH26.79112.2207571.74660.560.75-2.690.03651
Hong Kong Dollar US Dollar (HKD/USD)HKDUSD 7.770.50.5-0.200353.31640.040.060.09-0.00229
Hong Kong 5-Year Bond YieldHK.5Y0.5200-0.4899448.6711-24.96-35.56-21.09-0.80318
Hong Kong 2-year bond yieldHK.2Y0.1-1-1-0.8038642.0983-1.96-46.52-32.89-0.92957
Hong Kong Yield CurveHK.YC0.810.50.751.584153.3256-18.92-20.67-21.28-32.2667
Hong Kong Credit Default SwapsCDS.Hong-Kong31.5-1-0.5-0.930864.17468012.1-4.830.01683

Hong Kong Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade-25464-31776-0.198640.8546251.0-1.00.9666672021-05-31
bank lending rate550-0.0253411-1.0-1.00.03333332020-01-31
banks balance sheet26201800257082000.01920010.04872221.01.00.42021-05-31
business confidence6-17-1.35294-0.251.0-1.002021-07-01
capital flows-89259-627810.4217521.00258-1.0-1.00.8666672021-01-01
car registrations362130910.1714660.2751.01.00.92021-05-31
consumer confidence65.762.40.0528846-0.243088-1.0-1.002021-04-01
consumer price index cpi112.3112.4-0.000889680.01080111.01.00.2166672021-05-31
current account59841311810.9191494.196341.01.00.952021-01-01
current account to gdp6.660.1-0.561.0-1.002020-01-31
deposit interest rate0.140.042.5-0.9416671.0-1.002019-01-01
exports3938143848740.02322840.2399291.01.00.9333332021-05-31
external debt1380960013824400-0.001070570.08093551.01.00.06666672021-01-01
fiscal expenditure163890172001-0.04715670.6600661.01.00.9166672021-01-01
foreign direct investment16180.915665.10.03292671.245961.01.002021-01-31
foreign exchange reserves491600494500-0.005864510.1024891.01.00.7166672021-06-30
gdp346.59366.03-0.05311040.5805821.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP697474701783-0.006140070.004091381.01.00.08333332021-03-31
gdp growth5.40.59.82.61.01.00.9583332021-01-01
gdp growth annual7.9-2.8-3.821430.7555561.01.00.9166672021-01-01
gold reserves2.082.1-0.009523810-1.0-1.00.4416672020-07-01
government budget-12-1.38.23077-121-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget84825270830.32390.9771811.01.00.8333332021-01-01
government debt to gdp38.4370.03783780.2598431.01.002016-01-31
government revenues2487151747090.4235960.7561271.01.00.9333332021-01-01
housing index179.33177.490.01036680.04061971.01.00.5833332021-04-30
imports4192784166500.006307450.2653971.01.00.9833332021-05-31
industrial production2.6-6.1-1.426231.363641.01.00.9166672021-01-01
inflation cpi10.80.25-0.3333331.0-1.00.3833332021-05-31
interbank rate0.170.170-0.26087-1.0-1.00.1083332021-06-02
interest rate0.860.860-0.687273-1.0-1.00.0252020-04-15
loans to private sector10812000107684000.004048880.00883618-1.01.00.08333332021-05-31
manufacturing pmi51.452.5-0.02095240.03629031.01.00.6333332021-06-30
money supply m05576405558160.003281660.07635681.01.00.352021-05-31
money supply m1348144033065600.05288880.295747-1.01.00.852021-05-31
money supply m215933500157703000.01034860.07112371.01.00.5833332021-05-31
money supply m315972200158078000.01039990.07090321.01.00.5833332021-05-31
Producer Price Index111.3109.90.01273890.03727871.01.00.32021-01-01
PPI Index1.72.9-0.413793-0.552632-1.0-1.00.5666672021-01-01
retail sales MoM9-2.6-4.46154-0.2741941.0-1.00.5666672021-05-31
retail sales7.811-0.290909-1.229411.01.00.4333332021-05-31
unemployment rate5.56-0.0833333-0.112903-1.0-1.00.1333332021-06-30
youth unemployment rate8.69.2-0.0652174-0.0752688-1.0-1.00.1666672021-05-31

Hang Seng Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Hang Seng momentum, Hang Seng trend, Hang Seng oscillator, Hang Seng RSI and Hang Seng returns.

Hang Seng Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarHang Seng momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Hang Seng momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Hang Seng. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Hang Seng return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Hang Seng Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Hang Seng momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Hang Seng trend

Hang Seng trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Hang Seng trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Hang Seng Closing price vs Hang Seng moving average (MA) calculation: If Hang Seng is greater than Hang Seng MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Hang Seng Moving average slope calculation: if current Hang Seng moving average is higher than the previous MA, Hang Seng upward slope +1, else -1
Hang Seng trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Hang Seng trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Hang Seng trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Hang Seng 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Hang Seng is in an uptrend when Hang Seng price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Hang Seng 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Hang Seng oscillator and Hang Seng RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Hang Seng oscillator

The Hang Seng oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Hang Seng price versus Hang Seng 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Hang Seng oscillator is:
Hang Seng oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Hang Seng simple moving average price) / (250 days Hang Seng price standard deviation)

Hang Seng oversold conditions
Hang Seng is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Hang Seng is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Hang Seng oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Hang Seng oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Hang Seng quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Hang Seng RSI.
Hang Seng overbought conditions
Hang Seng is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Hang Seng is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Hang Seng oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Hang Seng quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Hang Seng RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Hang Seng is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Hang Seng uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Hang Seng returns

MacroVar calculates Hang Seng returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Hang Seng returns = (Hang Seng Closing Price – Hang Seng Previous Price)/(Hang Seng Previous Price)
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