Hungary Economy

Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.6 by -66.18% on July 2020 from -13.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased by -206.98%. Hungary’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.38333.Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.7 by -10.0% on November 2020 from 3.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased by -20.59%. Hungary’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.44167.Hungary’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.3 by -2.27% on October 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s unemployment rate increased by 22.86%. Hungary’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.0.

Hungary Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Budapest SE BUX 46707.5 0.5 -0.25 -0.66479 56.4213 0.05411 0.05343 0.0205 0.04684
Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) HUFUSD 331.57 -0.5 0.5 1.43654 46.1074 -0.02777 -0.01221 -0.02047 0.10317
Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield HU.10Y 6.46 0 1 2.23096 64.2235 0 -0.01374 0.11958 1.34058
Hungary 5-Year Bond Yield HU.5Y 6.15 0 1 2.16961 74.1112 0 -0.01442 0.14953 2.09045
Hungary 1-year bond yield HU.1Y 6.04 0 1 1.90195 71.5099 0 -0.00658 0.05226 7.75362
Hungary Yield Curve HU.YC 1.96 0 -0.25 0.04192 50.7712 -3.92 -2 -5.77 -0.08378
Hungary Yield Curve HU.YC 1.96 0 -0.25 0.04192 50.7712 -3.92 -2 -5.77 -0.08378
Hungary Credit Default Swaps CDS.Hungary 58 -1 -0.75 -0.62198 5.26824 0 0 0 -0.15864

Budapest SE closed up by 0.00897% to 42107.6 on 23 January 2021 and +0.04013% on a weekly basis. Budapest SE momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Budapest SE trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. Budapest SE momentum exhaustion is 1.16624 indicating Budapest SE is oversold.Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield closed down by -0.03704% to 2.08 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.04147% on a weekly basis. Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.96101 indicating Hungary 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) closed down by -0.00034% to 296.92 on 23 January 2021 and +3e-05% on a weekly basis. Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) trend is -0.5/100 indicating a negative trend. Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.04581 indicating Hungarian Forint US Dollar (HUF/USD) is oversold.Hungary Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 60.0 on 23 January 2021 and +0.0% on a weekly basis. Hungary Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Hungary Credit Default Swaps trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. Hungary Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -0.62198 indicating Hungary Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

Hungary Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Hungary Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Hungary’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Hungary macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Hungary Macro Model

Hungary News

Hungary Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 8.2 7.1 15.49 64 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-15
inflation cpi 10.7 9.5 12.63 109.8 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
unemployment rate 3.4 3.5 -2.86 -24.44 Down Down 5 2022-06-23
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 98.9 91.1 0.0856202 0.281088 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.5 58.9 -12.56 -3.68 Down Down 26.67 2022-05-26
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 43585.5 42879.2 1.65 17.33 UP UP 100 2022-06-24
government debt to gdp 76.8 79.6 -3.52 -1.79 UP Down 0 2022-04-29
external debt 134997 126850 6.42 23.33 UP UP 86.67 2022-06-24
foreign exchange reserves 34059.3 34311.9 -0.74 11.59 Down UP 86.67 2022-06-22
gold reserves 94.49 31.51 1.99873 29.6786 1.0 1.0 1 2020-10-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -2345 -2357 -0.51 -2023.55 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-22
current account to gdp -0.8 0.4 -3 -0.887324 -1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.6 0.75 -0.2 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-07-21
central bank balance sheet 21039.9 20784.5 0.012288 0.641805 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-03-31
banks balance sheet 55978.7 54496 0.0272075 0.244383 1.0 1.0 1 2021-02-28
money supply m2 39873.6 39601.6 0.69 17.73 UP UP 100 2022-06-06
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -101 -326.6 -69.08 -62.45 UP UP 73.33 2022-06-11
government revenues 2766.98 2427.53 13.98 34 UP UP 93.33 2022-06-14
fiscal expenditure 3093.15 3303.26 -6.36 57.46 UP UP 90 2022-06-14

Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.6 by -66.18% on July 2020 from -13.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased by -206.98%. Hungary’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.38333.Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.7 by -10.0% on November 2020 from 3.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased by -20.59%. Hungary’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.44167.Hungary’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.3 by -2.27% on October 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s unemployment rate increased by 22.86%. Hungary’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.0.Hungary’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 51.9 by 3.39% on November 2020 from 50.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s manufacturing pmi decreased by -2.26%. Hungary’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.7342.Hungary’s building permits decreased to 986.0 by -9.12% on October 2020 from 1085.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s building permits decreased by -10.36%. Hungary’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 986.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 976.667.Hungary’s business confidence decreased to -13.1 by -35.78% on December 2020 from -20.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s business confidence decreased by -973.33%. Hungary’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -13.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.375.Hungary’s consumer confidence icnreased to -38.5 by 16.67% on December 2020 from -33.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s consumer confidence increased by 358.33%. Hungary’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -38.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.2583.

 

Hungary Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 6.9 10.5 -34.29 137.93 UP UP 51.67 2022-05-26
ESI - Economic Composite 98.9 91.1 0.0856202 0.281088 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.5 58.9 -12.56 -3.68 Down Down 26.67 2022-05-26
Manufacturing sector 1.2 -8.4 -1.14286 -1.04918 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -18.4 -23.5 -0.217021 -0.439024 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction sector 0.3 -10.2 -1.02941 -1.02362 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -1.9 -15.6 -0.878205 -0.92963 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Services sector -18.8 -25.7 -0.268482 -0.557647 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01

Hungary’s business confidence decreased to -13.1 by -35.78% on December 2020 from -20.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s business confidence decreased by -973.33%. Hungary’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -13.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.375.Hungary’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 80.6 by -573.0% on January 2021 from 85.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2626.0%. Hungary’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 80.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.5083.Hungary’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 51.9 by 3.39% on November 2020 from 50.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s manufacturing pmi decreased by -2.26%. Hungary’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.7342.Hungary’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -17.3 by 4298.0% on January 2021 from -12.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -35821.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -17.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.05.Hungary’s Consumer sector decreased to -23.3 by -127.0% on January 2021 from -23.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer sector increased by 36600.0%. Hungary’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -23.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.3417.Hungary’s Construction sector decreased to -11.0 by -3529.0% on January 2021 from -17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction sector decreased by -16875.0%. Hungary’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.08333.Hungary’s Retail sector icnreased to -22.2 by 5524.0% on January 2021 from -14.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail sector decreased by -71667.0%. Hungary’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -22.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.75.Hungary’s Services sector icnreased to -40.8 by 3645.0% on January 2021 from -29.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services sector decreased by -102727.0%. Hungary’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -40.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.1333.

Hungary Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -25 -20 25 36.61 Down Down 25 2022-05-23
car registrations 10141 9090 11.56 -5.18 UP Down 36.67 2022-06-22
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -16.7 -30.2 -0.44702 -0.725329 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -4.6 -10.8 -0.574074 -0.818898 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 37.4 38.5 -0.0285714 -0.403509 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 27.4 24.1 0.136929 -0.650064 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -22.5 -27.1 -0.169742 -0.395161 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -48.7 -47.4 0.0274262 0.415698 -1.0 -1.0 0.95 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 1.2 1.9 -0.368421 -0.538462 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Hungary’s consumer confidence icnreased to -38.5 by 16.67% on December 2020 from -33.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s consumer confidence increased by 358.33%. Hungary’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -38.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.2583.Hungary’s car registrations icnreased to 13265.0 by 11.04% on November 2020 from 11946.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s car registrations decreased by -6.68%. Hungary’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 13265.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10953.0.Hungary’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased to -31.4 by -599.0% on January 2021 from -33.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 51569.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -31.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.5917.Hungary’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to -12.6 by -1656.0% on January 2021 from -15.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -80000.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.95.Hungary’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 39.4 by 563.0% on January 2021 from 37.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 765.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 39.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.4167.Hungary’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to 30.3 by -1166.0% on January 2021 from 34.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -1020000.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 30.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28.15.Hungary’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -27.1 by 1387.0% on January 2021 from -23.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 12032.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.1583.Hungary’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -43.3 by 117.0% on January 2021 from -42.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 3489.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -43.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.625.Hungary’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 4.6 by 7692.0% on January 2021 from 2.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -5534.0%. Hungary’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.36667.

Hungary Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 51.5 58.9 -12.56 -3.68 Down Down 26.67 2022-05-26
Manufacturing sector 1.2 -8.4 -1.14286 -1.04918 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -10.2 -19 -0.463158 -0.548673 1.0 1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 28.6 24.4 0.172131 3.68852 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -9.1 -21.1 -0.56872 -0.67148 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -21.3 -32.1 -0.336449 -0.526667 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 1.2 0.1 11 -1.8 -1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 15 -6 -3.5 -1.28846 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
industrial production 3.1 3.6 -13.89 -81.21 Down Down 45 2022-06-11
industrial production mom -1.6 -0.2 700 -50 Down UP 18.33 2022-06-11

Hungary’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 51.9 by 3.39% on November 2020 from 50.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s manufacturing pmi decreased by -2.26%. Hungary’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.7342.Hungary’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -17.3 by 4298.0% on January 2021 from -12.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -35821.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -17.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.05.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -35.3 by 3953.0% on January 2021 from -25.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased by -40696.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -35.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.275.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 3.7 by -2600.0% on January 2021 from 5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -7933.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 3.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.70833.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -21.7 by -2080.0% on January 2021 from -27.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -31485.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -21.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.7333.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -42.4 by 2695.0% on January 2021 from -33.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 45065.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -42.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -38.8583.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 2.7 by -5091.0% on January 2021 from 5.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -4255.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.5.Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to -13.7 by 14909.0% on January 2021 from -5.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -20224.0%. Hungary’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -13.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.35833.Hungary’s industrial production decreased to 0.6 by -72.73% on October 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s industrial production decreased by -90.32%. Hungary’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.56667.Hungary’s industrial production mom decreased to 2.3 by -133.82% on September 2020 from -6.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s industrial production mom decreased by -25.81%. Hungary’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.475.

Hungary Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -18.8 -25.7 -0.268482 -0.557647 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 13.4 -11.8 -2.13559 -1.27126 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 19.5 14 0.392857 2.82353 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -34.6 -32.9 0.0516717 -0.121827 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -35.1 -32.4 0.0833333 -0.0976864 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -3.5 -5 -0.3 -0.700855 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 8.6 -1.5 -6.73333 -1.87755 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Hungary’s Services sector icnreased to -40.8 by 3645.0% on January 2021 from -29.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services sector decreased by -102727.0%. Hungary’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -40.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.1333.Hungary’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -26.3 by 24156.0% on January 2021 from -7.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -42469.0%. Hungary’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.81667.Hungary’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 12.7 by 583.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -2013.0%. Hungary’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.05.Hungary’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -45.3 by 1076.0% on January 2021 from -40.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -104375.0%. Hungary’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -45.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.5333.Hungary’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -50.7 by 2366.0% on January 2021 from -41.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -1700000.0%. Hungary’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -50.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.0167.Hungary’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -13.5 by 7532.0% on January 2021 from -7.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) increased by 86429.0%. Hungary’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.94167.Hungary’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -12.6 by -49375.0% on January 2021 from 3.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -29688.0%. Hungary’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.975.

Hungary Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -1.9 -15.6 -0.878205 -0.92963 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 10.5 -17.4 -1.60345 -1.20833 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 50.4 38.9 0.29563 1.68085 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -23.3 -32.4 -0.280864 -0.173759 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 1.6 0.9 0.777778 -0.771429 1.0 -1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 19.3 -13.5 -2.42963 -1.4214 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 5.8 -1.6 -4.625 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
retail sales 16.2 9.8 65.31 -871.43 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
retail sales MoM -2.4 7.3 -132.88 -340 Down Down 3.33 2022-05-26

Hungary’s Retail sector icnreased to -22.2 by 5524.0% on January 2021 from -14.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail sector decreased by -71667.0%. Hungary’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -22.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.75.Hungary’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -34.5 by 18049.0% on January 2021 from -12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -60735.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -34.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.125.Hungary’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 28.5 by -1787.0% on January 2021 from 34.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 1310.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 28.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.2333.Hungary’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -40.2 by 2562.0% on January 2021 from -32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -144000.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -40.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.2167.Hungary’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to -2.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from -1.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -15000.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.1.Hungary’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -28.3 by 12823.0% on January 2021 from -12.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -33983.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.95833.Hungary’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -0.6 by -11765.0% on January 2021 from 3.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11000.0%. Hungary’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.741667.Hungary’s retail sales decreased to -1.9 by -5.0% on October 2020 from -2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s retail sales decreased by -130.64%. Hungary’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.6.Hungary’s retail sales MoM icnreased to 1.2 by 20.0% on October 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s retail sales MoM decreased by -700.0%. Hungary’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.275.

Hungary Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 0.3 -10.2 -1.02941 -1.02362 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -5 -20.3 -0.753695 -0.850746 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 26.5 15.3 0.732026 0.409574 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 5.6 -0.2 -29 -0.317073 1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-04-01
building permits 1420 1727 -17.78 -14.25 UP Down 85 2022-06-06
housing index 186.9 178.51 0.0470002 0.347999 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -5 -17.1 -0.707602 -0.865229 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 4.3 2.9 0.482759 -0.122449 1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 24.9 34 -0.267647 -0.29661 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 16.7 15.3 0.0915033 1.25676 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 49.5 38 0.302632 1.0625 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 19.6 15.6 0.25641 -0.125 1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 22.1 18.5 0.194595 0.188172 -1.0 1.0 0.65 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 24.2 23.7 0.021097 -0.314448 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-04-01

Hungary’s Construction sector decreased to -11.0 by -3529.0% on January 2021 from -17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction sector decreased by -16875.0%. Hungary’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.08333.Hungary’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -23.0 by -2812.0% on January 2021 from -32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -21500.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.25.Hungary’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 5.0 by -2857.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -8214.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.9167.Hungary’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 2.0 by -30000.0% on January 2021 from -1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -8462.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.08333.Hungary’s building permits decreased to 986.0 by -9.12% on October 2020 from 1085.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s building permits decreased by -10.36%. Hungary’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 986.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 976.667.Hungary’s housing index decreased to 160.97 by -1.32% on February 2020 from 163.12 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s housing index increased by 28.28%. Hungary’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 160.97 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 151.485.Hungary’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -29333.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.75.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 2.0 by -3333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -6667.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.08333.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 39.0 by -1875.0% on January 2021 from 48.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 29000.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 39.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30.5833.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 18.0 by 6364.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) increased by 8000.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.3333.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 39.0 by 833.0% on January 2021 from 36.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -3607.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 39.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.9167.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 8.0 by -2727.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -5789.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.25.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 22.0 by 1000.0% on January 2021 from 20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 1579.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.75.Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 33.0 by 2222.0% on January 2021 from 27.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 9412.0%. Hungary’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28.1667.

Hungary GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 10027700 11483800 -12.68 8.13 Down UP 83.33 2022-05-26
gdp growth annual 8.2 7.1 15.49 64 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-15
gdp 160.967 157.883 0.0195335 0.150044 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 2 0.9 122.22 100 UP UP 95.83 2022-04-29

Hungary’s Real GDP icnreased to 10115500.0 by 15.09% on September 2020 from 8789360.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s Real GDP increased by 49.42%. Hungary’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 10115500.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7944270.0.Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.6 by -66.18% on July 2020 from -13.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gdp growth annual decreased by -206.98%. Hungary’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.38333.Hungary’s gdp icnreased to 160.967 by 1.95% on January 2019 from 157.883 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gdp increased by 15.0%. Hungary’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 160.967 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 139.805.Hungary’s gdp growth decreased to 11.4 by -178.08% on July 2020 from -14.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gdp growth increased by 1166.67%. Hungary’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 11.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.583333.

Hungary inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 10.7 9.5 12.63 109.8 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
core inflation rate 12.2 10.3 18.45 258.82 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
consumer price index cpi 1569.8 1544.9 1.61 10.69 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
Producer Price Index 159.2 154.6 2.98 28.49 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
PPI Index 28.8 25.9 11.2 193.88 UP UP 100 2022-05-26

Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.7 by -10.0% on November 2020 from 3.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s inflation cpi decreased by -20.59%. Hungary’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.44167.Hungary’s core inflation rate icnreased to 3.9 by 2.63% on November 2020 from 3.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s core inflation rate decreased by -2.5%. Hungary’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 3.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.125.Hungary’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 1363.5 by -0.2% on November 2020 from 1366.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s consumer price index cpi increased by 2.7%. Hungary’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 1363.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1354.37.Hungary’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 117.4 by 0.69% on October 2020 from 116.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s Producer Price Index increased by 15.67%. Hungary’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 117.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 105.492.Hungary’s PPI Index icnreased to 5.9 by 13.46% on October 2020 from 5.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s PPI Index increased by 293.33%. Hungary’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of 5.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.58333.

Hungary Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -8.1 -2.1 2.85714 1.18919 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -101 -326.6 -69.08 -62.45 UP UP 73.33 2022-06-11
government revenues 2766.98 2427.53 13.98 34 UP UP 93.33 2022-06-14
fiscal expenditure 3093.15 3303.26 -6.36 57.46 UP UP 90 2022-06-14

Hungary’s Government budget icnreased to -694.0 by 107.85% on November 2020 from -333.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s Government budget increased by 263.54%. Hungary’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -694.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -312.525.Hungary’s government revenues decreased to 1250320.0 by -1.58% on August 2020 from 1270330.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s government revenues increased by 27.31%. Hungary’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 1250320.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1313460.0.Hungary’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 1281970.0 by -18.73% on August 2020 from 1577450.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s fiscal expenditure increased by 13.98%. Hungary’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 1281970.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1505750.0.

Hungary Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.6 0.75 -0.2 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-07-21
central bank balance sheet 21039.9 20784.5 0.012288 0.641805 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-03-31
banks balance sheet 55978.7 54496 0.0272075 0.244383 1.0 1.0 1 2021-02-28
money supply m0 9177 9192.9 -0.17 -9.07 Down Down 75 2022-06-22
money supply m1 34082.4 34384.5 -0.88 13.49 UP UP 95 2022-06-06
money supply m2 39873.6 39601.6 0.69 17.73 UP UP 100 2022-06-06
money supply m3 39980.8 39726.4 0.64 17.76 UP UP 100 2022-06-06

Hungary’s interest rate decreased to 0.6 by -20.0% on July 2020 from 0.75 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Hungary’s interest rate decreased by -33.33%. Hungary’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.8625.Hungary’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 17821.2 by -0.17% on October 2020 from 17851.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s central bank balance sheet increased by 52.06%. Hungary’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 17821.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14311.1.Hungary’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 50092.1 by 1.09% on September 2020 from 49553.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s banks balance sheet increased by 14.79%. Hungary’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 50092.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46521.4.Hungary’s money supply m2 icnreased to 30779.7 by 1.85% on September 2020 from 30220.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s money supply m2 increased by 17.18%. Hungary’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 30779.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28604.5.

Hungary Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 111.3 102.1 0.0901077 0.272 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 3.4 3.5 -2.86 -24.44 Down Down 5 2022-06-23
youth unemployment rate 11.4 9.2 23.91 -17.99 Down Down 56.67 2022-06-06
long term unemployment rate 1.2 0.9 0.333333 -0.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.45 2020-09-30

Hungary’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 95.3 by -792.0% on January 2021 from 103.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Hungary’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1438.0%. Hungary’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 95.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 101.733.Hungary’s unemployment rate decreased to 4.3 by -2.27% on October 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s unemployment rate increased by 22.86%. Hungary’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.0.Hungary’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 11.5 by -7.26% on September 2020 from 12.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s youth unemployment rate decreased by -6.5%. Hungary’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.7083.Hungary’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 0.012 by 33.33% on September 2020 from 0.009 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -20.0%. Hungary’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 0.012 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0121667.

Hungary Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -2345 -2357 -0.51 -2023.55 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-22
current account to gdp -0.8 0.4 -3 -0.887324 -1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 11052 12131.4 -8.9 12.03 UP UP 26.67 2022-06-11
imports 11527 12800 -9.95 20.99 UP UP 30 2022-06-11
balance of trade -475 -708 -32.91 -240.81 Down Down 8.33 2022-06-11
capital flows -613.2 443.8 -238.17 223.59 Down Down 16.67 2022-06-24
foreign direct investment 1606.5 393.1 3.08675 -3.16276 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2020-10-01

Hungary’s current account decreased to 752.01 by -207.72% on September 2020 from -698.13 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s current account increased by 1.16%. Hungary’s current account trend is down since the current value of 752.01 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.4733.Hungary’s current account to gdp decreased to -0.8 by -300.0% on January 2019 from 0.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s current account to gdp decreased by -88.73%. Hungary’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.Hungary’s exports icnreased to 3698460.0 by 0.35% on October 2020 from 3685680.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s exports increased by 10.36%. Hungary’s exports trend is down since the current value of 3698460.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2963010.0.Hungary’s imports icnreased to 3374850.0 by 3.24% on October 2020 from 3268800.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s imports increased by 5.69%. Hungary’s imports trend is down since the current value of 3374850.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2812460.0.Hungary’s balance of trade decreased to 323612.0 by -22.37% on October 2020 from 416881.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s balance of trade increased by 104.76%. Hungary’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 323612.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 150618.0.Hungary’s capital flows decreased to 1373.8 by -404.75% on July 2020 from -450.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s capital flows decreased by -465.37%. Hungary’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 1373.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 797.467.Hungary’s foreign direct investment decreased to 300.4 by -69.32% on July 2020 from 979.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s foreign direct investment decreased by -1.64%. Hungary’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 300.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 768.658.

Hungary Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 34059.3 34311.9 -0.74 11.59 Down UP 86.67 2022-06-22
gold reserves 94.49 31.51 1.99873 29.6786 1.0 1.0 1 2020-10-01

Hungary’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 32546.2 by 7.69% on November 2020 from 30222.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 11.04%. Hungary’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 32546.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29063.1.Hungary’s gold reserves icnreased to 31.51 by 0.03% on July 2020 from 31.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s gold reserves increased by 923.05%. Hungary’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 31.51 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.0342.Hungary’s government debt icnreased to 35139.5 by 3.17% on November 2020 from 34061.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s government debt increased by 18.32%. Hungary’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 35139.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31680.5.Hungary’s government debt to gdp decreased to 66.3 by -5.56% on January 2019 from 70.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s government debt to gdp increased by 0.91%. Hungary’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 66.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4417.Hungary’s external debt icnreased to 109285.0 by 1.8% on May 2020 from 107356.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s external debt increased by 2.47%. Hungary’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 109285.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106385.0.


Hungary Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 43585.5 42879.2 1.65 17.33 UP UP 100 2022-06-24
government debt to gdp 76.8 79.6 -3.52 -1.79 UP Down 0 2022-04-29
external debt 134997 126850 6.42 23.33 UP UP 86.67 2022-06-24

Hungary’s government debt icnreased to 35139.5 by 3.17% on November 2020 from 34061.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s government debt increased by 18.32%. Hungary’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 35139.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31680.5.Hungary’s government debt to gdp decreased to 66.3 by -5.56% on January 2019 from 70.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s government debt to gdp increased by 0.91%. Hungary’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 66.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4417.Hungary’s external debt icnreased to 109285.0 by 1.8% on May 2020 from 107356.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s external debt increased by 2.47%. Hungary’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 109285.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106385.0.

 

Hungary Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.91 0.91 0 0.166667 1.0 1.0 0.991667 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate -0.05 -0.05 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-02-28
bank lending rate 1.85 0.9 1.05556 1.05556 1.0 1.0 1 2020-04-30
loans to private sector 9403 9317.6 0.00916545 0.100152 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-02-28
cash reserve ratio 1 1 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.608333 2020-01-31

Hungary’s interbank rate On a year on year basis Hungary’s interbank rate decreased by -19.23%. Hungary’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 0.26 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.224167.Hungary’s deposit interest rate On a year on year basis Hungary’s deposit interest rate decreased by -66.67%. Hungary’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of -0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.075.Hungary’s bank lending rate icnreased to 1.85 by 105.56% on April 2020 from 0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s bank lending rate increased by 105.56%. Hungary’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.85 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.979167.Hungary’s loans to private sector icnreased to 9199.8 by 1.92% on September 2020 from 9026.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Hungary’s loans to private sector increased by 10.49%. Hungary’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 9199.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8739.36.Hungary’s cash reserve ratio Hungary’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.0.

 

Hungary macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Hungary economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Hungary Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Hungary Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Hungary’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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