Italy Economy

Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.0 by -72.22% on July 2020 from -18.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased by -412.5%. Italy’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.83333.Italy’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.2 by -33.33% on November 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Italy’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0666667.Italy’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.8 by 1.03% on October 2020 from 9.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s unemployment rate increased by 3.16%. Italy’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.25.

Italy Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
FTSE MIB MIB 25308 0.5 -0.25 -0.43665 57.312 0.02409 0.03156 0.03876 0.02293
Italy ETF EWI 30.06 0.5 -0.5 -1.5296 55.6986 0.02804 0.03548 0.03548 -0.04541
FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds FBTP 140.17 0 -0.75 -2.10675 43.6262 0.002 -0.0005 0.00143 -0.06297
Italy 10-Year Bond Yield IT.10Y 2.128 1 1 2.74109 66.1246 0.01093 0.04365 0.50602 2.0099
Italy 5-Year Bond Yield IT.5Y 0.985 0 1 2.41827 56.1058 -0.02572 -0.015 0.07182 12.3108
Italy 2-year bond yield IT.2Y 0.3 0 1 2.58702 63.5985 0.27119 0.66667 -2.15385 -1.8
Italy Yield Curve IT.YC 1.1 -1 -1 -1.40948 36.5594 -1.08 -9.24 -4.68 -0.27058
Italy Credit Default Swaps CDS.Italy 74.5 -1 -1 -1.19443 36.4689 3.11 -3.25 -10.51 -0.22705

FTSE MIB closed down by -0.00119% to 22232.9 on 23 January 2021 and +0.03841% on a weekly basis. FTSE MIB momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. FTSE MIB trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. FTSE MIB momentum exhaustion is 0.92864 indicating FTSE MIB is oversold.Italy ETF closed up by 0.00607% to 29.85 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00573% on a weekly basis. Italy ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Italy ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Italy ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.43434 indicating Italy ETF is oversold.Italy 10-Year Bond Yield closed up by 0.0% to 0.546 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.08543% on a weekly basis. Italy 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Italy 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Italy 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -1.43362 indicating Italy 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Italy Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 98.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.02% on a weekly basis. Italy Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Italy Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Italy Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.19443 indicating Italy Credit Default Swaps is oversold.FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds closed up by 0.00086% to 152.14 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00555% on a weekly basis. FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds momentum exhaustion is 1.49231 indicating FBTP Italian 10Y Bonds is oversold.

Italy Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Italy Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Italy’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Italy macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Italy Macro Model

 

Italy News

Italy Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 6.2 3.9 58.97 933.33 UP UP 100 2022-04-29
inflation cpi 6.9 6 15 527.27 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
unemployment rate 10.5 10.7 -0.0186916 0.235294 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 104.8 99.5 0.0532663 0.227166 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.9 54.5 -4.77 -16.69 Down Down 43.33 2022-05-26
services pmi 53.7 55.7 -3.59 1.13 Down UP 76.67 2022-05-26
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2758880 2755370 0.13 2.93 UP UP 100 2022-06-22
government debt to gdp 150.8 155.3 -2.9 34.04 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 2345210 2324320 0.00898757 0.0768761 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 212301 220155 -3.57 22.13 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-14
gold reserves 2451.84 2451.8 0.0000163145 0 1.0 -1.0 0.575 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -2190 -910 140.66 -134.05 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-22
current account to gdp 3.6 3.2 0.125 -2.28571 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 1593690 1598120 -0.28 7.78 UP UP 95 2022-06-14
banks balance sheet 4064460 4027860 0.91 3.65 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
money supply m2 1942420 1914820 1.44 5.85 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -12.84 -93.97 -86.34 -24.72 UP UP 45 2022-06-22
government revenues 51.86 36.24 43.1 17.06 UP UP 81.67 2022-06-22
fiscal expenditure 64.7 130.2 -50.31 5.45 Down UP 70 2022-06-22

Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.0 by -72.22% on July 2020 from -18.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased by -412.5%. Italy’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.83333.Italy’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.2 by -33.33% on November 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Italy’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0666667.Italy’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.8 by 1.03% on October 2020 from 9.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s unemployment rate increased by 3.16%. Italy’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.25.Italy’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.5 by -4.28% on November 2020 from 53.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.19%. Italy’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.6333.Italy’s services pmi decreased to 39.4 by -15.63% on November 2020 from 46.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s services pmi decreased by -21.83%. Italy’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 39.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.975.Italy’s composite pmi decreased to 42.7 by -13.21% on November 2020 from 49.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s composite pmi decreased by -13.91%. Italy’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 42.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.275.Italy’s construction pmi icnreased to 49.8 by 3.53% on November 2020 from 48.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s construction pmi increased by 3.32%. Italy’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 49.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.4333.Italy’s business confidence decreased to 90.2 by -4.75% on November 2020 from 94.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s business confidence decreased by -8.7%. Italy’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 90.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 90.3333.Italy’s consumer confidence decreased to 98.1 by -3.54% on November 2020 from 101.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s consumer confidence decreased by -11.86%. Italy’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 98.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.333.

Italy Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 110 109.4 0.55 -3.85 Down Down 78.33 2022-06-24
ESI - Economic Composite 104.8 99.5 0.0532663 0.227166 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.9 54.5 -4.77 -16.69 Down Down 43.33 2022-05-26
services pmi 53.7 55.7 -3.59 1.13 Down UP 76.67 2022-05-26
composite pmi 52.4 54.5 -3.85 -5.92 Down Down 56.67 2022-05-26
zew economic sentiment index 59.7 56.8 0.0510563 -2.03646 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-03-28
Manufacturing sector 1.8 -2.8 -1.64286 -1.11465 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -10.1 -11.5 -0.121739 -0.516746 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Construction sector -2 -4.1 -0.512195 -0.726027 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail sector 1.5 -7.3 -1.20548 2.75 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-04-01
Services sector -6.1 -11.9 -0.487395 -0.651429 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01

Italy’s business confidence decreased to 90.2 by -4.75% on November 2020 from 94.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s business confidence decreased by -8.7%. Italy’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 90.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 90.3333.Italy’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 81.5 by -965.0% on January 2021 from 90.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1825.0%. Italy’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 81.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 86.75.Italy’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.5 by -4.28% on November 2020 from 53.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.19%. Italy’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.6333.Italy’s services pmi decreased to 39.4 by -15.63% on November 2020 from 46.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s services pmi decreased by -21.83%. Italy’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 39.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.975.Italy’s composite pmi decreased to 42.7 by -13.21% on November 2020 from 49.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s composite pmi decreased by -13.91%. Italy’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 42.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.275.Italy’s zew economic sentiment index icnreased to 40.1 by 107.77% on December 2020 from 19.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s zew economic sentiment index decreased by -535.87%. Italy’s zew economic sentiment index trend is down since the current value of 40.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.5083.Italy’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -16.1 by 4248.0% on January 2021 from -11.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing sector increased by 17288.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -16.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.4833.Italy’s Consumer sector icnreased to -19.6 by 1395.0% on January 2021 from -17.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer sector increased by 3611.0%. Italy’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -19.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.3917.Italy’s Construction sector icnreased to -10.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction sector increased by 4286.0%. Italy’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.3333.Italy’s Retail sector icnreased to -6.5 by 18261.0% on January 2021 from -2.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail sector decreased by -16436.0%. Italy’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -6.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.36667.Italy’s Services sector icnreased to -26.9 by 7815.0% on January 2021 from -15.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services sector decreased by -106071.0%. Italy’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.8833.

Italy Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 98.3 102.7 -4.28 -14.6 Down Down 5 2022-06-24
car registrations 121299 97362 24.59 -15.02 UP Down 35 2022-05-26
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 6.2 4.5 0.377778 -1.15696 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -0.7 -2.6 -0.730769 -0.916667 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) -4.2 -9.1 -0.538462 -1.54545 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 44.7 45.1 -0.00886918 0.350453 -1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -26.4 -28.3 -0.0671378 0.0114943 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -6.4 -8.2 -0.219512 -0.529412 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 9 6.4 0.40625 -0.134615 1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-04-01

Italy’s consumer confidence decreased to 98.1 by -3.54% on November 2020 from 101.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s consumer confidence decreased by -11.86%. Italy’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 98.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.333.Italy’s car registrations decreased to 138405.0 by -11.83% on October 2020 from 156978.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s car registrations decreased by -11.76%. Italy’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 138405.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 121818.0.Italy’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -23.5 by 4596.0% on January 2021 from -16.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 13039.0%. Italy’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.1167.Italy’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -7.3 by 5870.0% on January 2021 from -4.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) increased by 4038.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.65.Italy’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to -6.1 by -2651.0% on January 2021 from -8.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -21961.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.425.Italy’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 55.5 by 1987.0% on January 2021 from 46.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 27000.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 55.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 37.3833.Italy’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -31.9 by 391.0% on January 2021 from -30.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 324.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -31.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.6083.Italy’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -10.2 by -2093.0% on January 2021 from -12.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -1905.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.7.Italy’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 7.9 by 822.0% on January 2021 from 7.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 676.0%. Italy’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 7.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.0.

Italy Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 51.9 54.5 -4.77 -16.69 Down Down 43.33 2022-05-26
Manufacturing sector 1.8 -2.8 -1.64286 -1.11465 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -6.4 -16.4 -0.609756 -0.737705 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 16.7 11.4 0.464912 -3.65079 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -6.8 -14.7 -0.537415 -0.661692 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -12.4 -19.9 -0.376884 -0.524904 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 1.2 1.5 -0.2 -0.657143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 13 9.5 0.368421 -1.67358 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
industrial production 4.2 3.2 31.25 -625 Down UP 78.33 2022-06-14
industrial production mom 1.6 0.2 700 -0 UP Down 83.33 2022-06-14
capacity utilization 75.3 74.9 0.00534045 -0.0407643 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-01-01

Italy’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.5 by -4.28% on November 2020 from 53.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.19%. Italy’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.6333.Italy’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -16.1 by 4248.0% on January 2021 from -11.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing sector increased by 17288.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -16.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.4833.Italy’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -31.8 by 530.0% on January 2021 from -30.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 8068.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -31.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.3333.Italy’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -4.0 by 26364.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) increased by 30000.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.01667.Italy’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -27.7 by 36.0% on January 2021 from -27.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 11473.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -27.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -28.8917.Italy’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -34.2 by 459.0% on January 2021 from -32.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 8387.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -34.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.675.Italy’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to 3.5 by 938.0% on January 2021 from 3.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -3000.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 3.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.89167.Italy’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to -13.0 by 175714.0% on January 2021 from -0.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -36531.0%. Italy’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.28333.Italy’s industrial production decreased to -2.1 by -57.14% on October 2020 from -4.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s industrial production decreased by -4.55%. Italy’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.825.Italy’s industrial production mom decreased to 1.3 by -125.49% on October 2020 from -5.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s industrial production mom decreased by -218.18%. Italy’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.04167.Italy’s capacity utilization icnreased to 72.9 by 14.26% on July 2020 from 63.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s capacity utilization decreased by -5.81%. Italy’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 72.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 76.1.

Italy Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 53.7 55.7 -3.59 1.13 Down UP 76.67 2022-05-26
Services sector -6.1 -11.9 -0.487395 -0.651429 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 7.3 0.8 8.125 -1.1906 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -2.9 -4.3 -0.325581 -0.442308 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -12.1 -18 -0.327778 2.36111 1.0 -1.0 1 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -13.5 -18.7 -0.278075 0.285714 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -14.7 -12.9 0.139535 0.96 1.0 -1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) -0.3 -1.7 -0.823529 -0.977612 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01

Italy’s services pmi decreased to 39.4 by -15.63% on November 2020 from 46.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s services pmi decreased by -21.83%. Italy’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 39.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.975.Italy’s Services sector icnreased to -26.9 by 7815.0% on January 2021 from -15.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services sector decreased by -106071.0%. Italy’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.8833.Italy’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -28.6 by 15766.0% on January 2021 from -11.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -85263.0%. Italy’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3167.Italy’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -5.5 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from -4.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 265000.0%. Italy’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.89167.Italy’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -26.6 by 5287.0% on January 2021 from -17.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -46438.0%. Italy’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.2417.Italy’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -25.4 by 4941.0% on January 2021 from -17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) increased by 87692.0%. Italy’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.075.Italy’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -19.5 by 1272.0% on January 2021 from -17.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) increased by 25454.0%. Italy’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.9583.Italy’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -9.9 by -481.0% on January 2021 from -10.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -40938.0%. Italy’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.60833.

Italy Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 1.5 -7.3 -1.20548 2.75 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 4.4 -6 -1.73333 -1.66667 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 8 4.2 0.904762 -5.44444 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -8.4 -18 -0.533333 -1.5122 1.0 -1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 10.5 9.8 0.0714286 0.418919 -1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 23.3 6 2.88333 -4.02597 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 4.4 -0.1 -45 0.466667 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-01
retail sales 8.4 5.6 50 -72.37 UP Down 91.67 2022-06-11
retail sales MoM -0.5 0.7 -171.43 -89.36 Down UP 33.33 2022-05-04

Italy’s Retail sector icnreased to -6.5 by 18261.0% on January 2021 from -2.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail sector decreased by -16436.0%. Italy’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -6.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.36667.Italy’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -15.2 by -200000.0% on January 2021 from 0.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -31408.0%. Italy’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -15.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.55833.Italy’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -1.6 by -4286.0% on January 2021 from -2.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -170000.0%. Italy’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.1.Italy’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to 1.8 by -12432.0% on January 2021 from -7.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -8548.0%. Italy’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.04167.Italy’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 9.0 by -1892.0% on January 2021 from 11.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -110.0%. Italy’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.675.Italy’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -12.3 by -20513.0% on January 2021 from 11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -14522.0%. Italy’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.625.Italy’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -1.6 by -13810.0% on January 2021 from 4.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12162.0%. Italy’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.88333.Italy’s retail sales icnreased to 2.9 by 107.14% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s retail sales increased by 190.0%. Italy’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 2.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.29167.Italy’s retail sales MoM decreased to 0.6 by -185.71% on October 2020 from -0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s retail sales MoM decreased by -45.45%. Italy’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.65.

Italy Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
construction pmi 54.3 59 -7.97 -6.86 Down Down 71.67 2022-06-11
Construction sector -2 -4.1 -0.512195 -0.726027 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -7.4 -11.8 -0.372881 -0.447761 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 6.4 4.9 0.306122 -5.26667 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 3.4 3.6 -0.0555556 0.214286 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
housing index 101.1 100.1 0.00999001 0.025355 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 3.6 -4.1 -1.87805 0.285714 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 48 44.9 0.0690423 -0.0532544 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 22 21.6 0.0185185 -0.0794979 -1.0 -1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 1.9 0.5 2.8 0.1875 -1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 2.7 1.6 0.6875 0.588235 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 0.7 0.5 0.4 -8 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 9.1 7 0.3 0.045977 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 27.4 34.8 -0.212644 0.186147 -1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01

Italy’s construction pmi icnreased to 49.8 by 3.53% on November 2020 from 48.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s construction pmi increased by 3.32%. Italy’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 49.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.4333.Italy’s Construction sector icnreased to -10.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction sector increased by 4286.0%. Italy’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.3333.Italy’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -22.0 by 1000.0% on January 2021 from -20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 3750.0%. Italy’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.75.Italy’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -1.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -7500.0%. Italy’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.0.Italy’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 2.0 by -3333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . Italy’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.25.Italy’s housing index icnreased to 102.5 by 3.12% on April 2020 from 99.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s housing index increased by 2.91%. Italy’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 102.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 99.05.Italy’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -15.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from -10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 140000.0%. Italy’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.8333.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 38.0 by -1556.0% on January 2021 from 45.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -2400.0%. Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 38.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.9167.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 26.0 by 833.0% on January 2021 from 24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased by -714.0%. Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.3333.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -2500.0%. Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.25.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 1.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -5000.0%. Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.91667.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.916667.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 9.0 by 2857.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.08333.Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 39.0 by 3448.0% on January 2021 from 29.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 14375.0%. Italy’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 39.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29.1667.

 

Italy GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 428312 428598 -0.07 -0.71 UP Down 63.33 2022-05-04
gdp growth annual 6.2 3.9 58.97 933.33 UP UP 100 2022-04-29
gdp 2001.24 2085.76 -0.0405224 -0.0945804 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth -0.2 0.7 -128.57 -200 Down Down 30 2022-05-04

Italy’s Real GDP icnreased to 411642.0 by 16.2% on July 2020 from 354246.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s Real GDP increased by 2.95%. Italy’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 411642.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 406918.0.Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.0 by -72.22% on July 2020 from -18.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s gdp growth annual decreased by -412.5%. Italy’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.83333.Italy’s gdp decreased to 2001.24 by -4.05% on January 2019 from 2085.76 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Italy’s gdp decreased by -9.46%. Italy’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 2001.24 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2097.01.Italy’s gdp growth decreased to 15.9 by -222.31% on July 2020 from -13.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s gdp growth increased by 3080.0%. Italy’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 15.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.075.

Italy inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 6.9 6 15 527.27 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
core inflation rate 3.3 2.4 37.5 1000 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
consumer price index cpi 111.3 110.3 0.91 6.92 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
Producer Price Index 142.2 136.8 3.95 36.86 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
PPI Index 35.3 36.9 -4.34 419.12 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-26

Italy’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.2 by -33.33% on November 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Italy’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0666667.Italy’s core inflation rate icnreased to 0.5 by 150.0% on November 2020 from 0.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s core inflation rate decreased by -28.57%. Italy’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.55.Italy’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 102.4 by -0.1% on November 2020 from 102.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.19%. Italy’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 102.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 102.75.Italy’s Producer Price Index decreased to 100.6 by -0.2% on November 2020 from 100.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s Producer Price Index decreased by -2.33%. Italy’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 100.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.567.Italy’s PPI Index decreased to -2.3 by -4.17% on November 2020 from -2.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s PPI Index decreased by -11.54%. Italy’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.33333.


Italy Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -9.5 -1.6 4.9375 2.65385 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-02-28
Government budget -12.84 -93.97 -86.34 -24.72 UP UP 45 2022-06-22
government revenues 51.86 36.24 43.1 17.06 UP UP 81.67 2022-06-22
fiscal expenditure 64.7 130.2 -50.31 5.45 Down UP 70 2022-06-22

Italy’s Government budget decreased to -1.04 by -94.79% on October 2020 from -19.97 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s Government budget decreased by -153.91%. Italy’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -1.04 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.8363.Italy’s government revenues icnreased to 36.74 by 14.88% on October 2020 from 31.98 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s government revenues decreased by -11.96%. Italy’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 36.74 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.8078.Italy’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 37.78 by -27.28% on October 2020 from 51.95 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s fiscal expenditure decreased by -5.08%. Italy’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 37.78 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 54.6439.


Italy Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 1593690 1598120 -0.28 7.78 UP UP 95 2022-06-14
banks balance sheet 4064460 4027860 0.91 3.65 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
money supply m1 1577850 1554070 1.53 8.13 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
money supply m2 1942420 1914820 1.44 5.85 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
money supply m3 1950790 1922980 1.45 5.79 UP UP 100 2022-05-26

Italy’s interest rate Italy’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Italy’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 1339140.0 by 0.19% on November 2020 from 1336620.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s central bank balance sheet increased by 32.41%. Italy’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1339140.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1179660.0.Italy’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 3847930.0 by 1.29% on October 2020 from 3799090.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s banks balance sheet increased by 0.15%. Italy’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 3847930.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3819610.0.Italy’s money supply m2 icnreased to 1774170.0 by 2.26% on October 2020 from 1734930.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s money supply m2 increased by 9.65%. Italy’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 1774170.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1687150.0.

Italy Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 102.5 99.1 0.0343088 0.156885 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 10.5 10.7 -0.0186916 0.235294 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 31.7 32.8 -0.0335366 0.112281 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 5.5 5.1 0.0784314 -0.179104 1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-01-01

Italy’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 90.2 by -164.0% on January 2021 from 91.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Italy’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1360.0%. Italy’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 90.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 92.975.Italy’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.8 by 1.03% on October 2020 from 9.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s unemployment rate increased by 3.16%. Italy’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.25.Italy’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 29.7 by -5.41% on September 2020 from 31.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s youth unemployment rate increased by 4.58%. Italy’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 29.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28.825.Italy’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 5.1 by 2.0% on February 2020 from 5.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -22.73%. Italy’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.80833.

Italy Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -2190 -910 140.66 -134.05 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-22
current account to gdp 3.6 3.2 0.125 -2.28571 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 50145.1 56437.6 -11.15 14.88 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-16
imports 53811.4 56666.2 -5.04 42.44 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-16
balance of trade -3666 -83.64 4283.07 -162.44 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-16
capital flows -2632.9 -6699 -60.7 -127.57 Down Down 23.33 2022-06-24
foreign direct investment 1313 1708 -23.13 -242.1 Down UP 53.33 2022-06-22

Italy’s current account icnreased to 8174.5 by 9.06% on October 2020 from 7495.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s current account decreased by -15.12%. Italy’s current account trend is down since the current value of 8174.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4619.15.Italy’s current account to gdp icnreased to 3.0 by 15.38% on January 2019 from 2.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Italy’s current account to gdp decreased by -314.29%. Italy’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.316667.Italy’s exports icnreased to 42404.4 by 5.65% on October 2020 from 40134.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s exports decreased by -7.63%. Italy’s exports trend is down since the current value of 42404.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35950.9.Italy’s imports icnreased to 34840.0 by 1.62% on October 2020 from 34286.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s imports decreased by -7.95%. Italy’s imports trend is down since the current value of 34840.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30957.1.Italy’s balance of trade icnreased to 7564.9 by 29.37% on October 2020 from 5847.44 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s balance of trade decreased by -6.1%. Italy’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 7564.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4993.75.Italy’s bank lending rate icnreased to 1.76 by 2.92% on October 2020 from 1.71 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s bank lending rate decreased by -3.83%. Italy’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.76 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.76.Italy’s capital flows icnreased to 10766.7 by 154.19% on October 2020 from 4235.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s capital flows increased by 39.45%. Italy’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 10766.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4852.44.Italy’s foreign direct investment icnreased to -3961.0 by 1314.64% on October 2020 from -280.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s foreign direct investment decreased by -181.84%. Italy’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of -3961.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -636.0.

Italy Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 212301 220155 -3.57 22.13 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-14
gold reserves 2451.84 2451.8 0.0000163145 0 1.0 -1.0 0.575 2020-07-01

Italy’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 167186.0 by -6.31% on November 2020 from 178443.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 8.8%. Italy’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 167186.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 171574.0.Italy’s gold reserves icnreased to 2451.84 by 0.0% on July 2020 from 2451.8 in the previous Quarterly. Italy’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 2451.84 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2451.81.Italy’s government debt icnreased to 2586970.0 by 0.17% on October 2020 from 2582550.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s government debt increased by 5.73%. Italy’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2586970.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2499110.0.Italy’s government debt to gdp On a year on year basis Italy’s government debt to gdp increased by 35.07%. Italy’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 134.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 125.4.Italy’s external debt icnreased to 2295930.0 by 0.87% on May 2020 from 2276160.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s external debt increased by 8.46%. Italy’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 2295930.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2195390.0.

Italy Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2758880 2755370 0.13 2.93 UP UP 100 2022-06-22
government debt to gdp 150.8 155.3 -2.9 34.04 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 2345210 2324320 0.00898757 0.0768761 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-01-01

Italy’s government debt icnreased to 2586970.0 by 0.17% on October 2020 from 2582550.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s government debt increased by 5.73%. Italy’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2586970.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2499110.0.Italy’s government debt to gdp On a year on year basis Italy’s government debt to gdp increased by 35.07%. Italy’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 134.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 125.4.Italy’s external debt icnreased to 2295930.0 by 0.87% on May 2020 from 2276160.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Italy’s external debt increased by 8.46%. Italy’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 2295930.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2195390.0.


Italy Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate -0.54 -0.54 0 0.317073 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-02-28
bank lending rate 1.77 1.75 0.0114286 0.0114286 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 660601 665649 -0.76 -0.94 Down Down 26.67 2022-06-14

Italy’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.408 by 11.78% on August 2019 from -0.365 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s interbank rate increased by 27.9%. Italy’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.408 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.326167.Italy’s balance of trade icnreased to 7564.9 by 29.37% on October 2020 from 5847.44 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s balance of trade decreased by -6.1%. Italy’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 7564.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4993.75.Italy’s bank lending rate icnreased to 1.76 by 2.92% on October 2020 from 1.71 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s bank lending rate decreased by -3.83%. Italy’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.76 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.76.Italy’s loans to private sector icnreased to 677518.0 by 0.08% on October 2020 from 676944.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Italy’s loans to private sector increased by 5.3%. Italy’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 677518.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 655631.0.

 

Italy macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Italy economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Italy Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Italy Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Italy’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.