AEX Index

AEX closed down by -1.5% to 733.74 on 23 January 2021 and +1.2% on a weekly basis. AEX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. AEX trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. AEX momentum exhaustion is 1.422 indicating AEX is oversold.AEX RSI is 60.1355 .

AEX Index Chart

AEX Index

AEX Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the AEX. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the AEX trading signals presented in the AEX statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
AEX AEX 733.74 0.5 1 1.422 60.1355 -1.5 1.2 3.08 0.02315

AEX closed at 733.74 on 23 January 2021. AEX trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. AEX momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. AEX momentum exhaustion is 1.422 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating AEX is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. AEX RSI was last calculated at 60.1355. AEX moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 619.919 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 591.937 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 558.91 in an uptrend. AEX annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -1.5%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.2%. AEX histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 12.7106%, AEX alpha None, AEX beta None and AEX maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor AEX statistics based on historical data since 1970.

AEX Index News

AEX Factors

AEX

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Netherlands PMI vs Stocks NL.FACT.STPMI 543.91 55.1642 -2.42986
Netherlands ESI vs Stocks NL.FACT.STESI 543.91 100.675 -0.36111

AEX related Indicators

AEX

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Netherlands ETF Stock Index ETF EWN 48.38 1 1 2.09814 74.2474 -1.08 -0.06 -1.43 0.25533
Netherlands PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor NL.FACT.STPMI 543.91
Netherlands ESI vs Stocks Stock Index vs ESI Factor NL.FACT.STESI 543.91

Netherlands Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
AEX AEX 733.74 0.5 1 1.422 60.1355 -1.5 1.2 3.08 0.02315
Netherlands ETF EWN 48.38 1 1 2.09814 74.2474 -1.08 -0.06 -1.43 0.25533
Netherlands 10-Year Bond Yield NL.10Y -0.27 0.5 -0.75 -1.16625 50.2348 37.76 350 210.34 5.40789
Netherlands 5-Year Bond Yield NL.5Y -0.64 1 -1 -1.33303 43.2176 7.38 31.69 23.79 0.58065
Netherlands 2-year bond yield NL.2Y -0.76 0.5 -0.5 -0.83145 57.2045 6.29 9.04 7.8 0.20034
Netherlands Yield Curve NL.YC 0.49 -1 -1 -1.21452 43.3188 -5.59 -23.08 -20.71 -0.57115
Netherlands Credit Default Swaps CDS.Netherlands 9.68 0 -1 -0.9612 48.9642 3.86 5.89 6.71 -0.30329

Netherlands Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 6540 5145 0.271137 0.150396 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-03-31
bank lending rate 0.39 0.41 -0.0487805 -0.170213 -1.0 -1.0 0.75 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 2654110 2636110 0.00682824 0.0112012 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-05-31
building permits 7797 8099 -0.0372886 0.531827 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-04-30
business confidence 11.5 8.8 0.306818 -1.76159 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-06-30
capacity utilization 81.7 80 0.02125 -0.0227273 1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2020-10-01
capital flows 21213 8398 1.52596 -0.183079 1.0 -1.0 0.4 2021-01-30
car registrations 33318 25601 0.301434 0.336677 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
central bank balance sheet 484835 486524 -0.00347157 0.265577 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-05-31
consumer confidence -3 -9 -0.666667 -0.888889 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 109.67 109.46 0.00191851 0.0200912 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 1.9 1.6 0.1875 -0.0952381 1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-05-31
current account 22608 12940 0.747141 -0.0302822 1.0 -1.0 0.4 2021-01-31
current account to gdp 7.8 9.9 -0.212121 0.56 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 51446 41983 0.225401 0.194031 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
external debt 3580140 3669960 -0.0244744 -0.110858 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 61.1 66.5 -0.081203 0.591146 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-01-01
foreign direct investment -44315 15636 -3.83416 8.62115 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-10-31
foreign exchange reserves 43438 44272 -0.0188381 -0.00401257 -1.0 -1.0 0.416667 2021-06-30
gdp 909.07 914.105 -0.00550812 0.0726717 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 183372 184222 -0.004614 -0.00769506 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2020-11-01
gdp growth -0.8 7.5 -1.10667 -2 -1.0 -1.0 0.241667 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -2.4 -2.9 -0.172414 -1.92308 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-01-01
gold reserves 612.45 612.5 -0.0000816327 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.641667 2020-07-01
government budget -4.3 1.8 -3.38889 42 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 4.9 -10.4 -1.47115 -0.721591 1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-01-01
government debt 469886 452332 0.0388078 0.14634 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01
government debt to gdp 54.5 48.7 0.119097 -0.00365631 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
government revenues 66.1 56.1 0.178253 0.182469 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
housing index 158.4 155.3 0.0199614 0.128205 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
imports 44906 36839 0.21898 0.200631 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
industrial production 8.4 2.2 2.81818 -2.12 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-30
industrial production mom -0.4 3.2 -1.125 -0.809524 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-30
inflation cpi 2 2.1 -0.047619 0.25 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-06-30
interbank rate -0.33 -0.33 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-02-28
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
loans to private sector 305637 301890 0.0124118 -0.000320539 1.0 -1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 1.1 1 0.1 -0.3125 1.0 -1.0 0.408333 2021-01-01
manufacturing pmi 68.8 69.4 -0.00864553 0.522124 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
money supply m0 78656 77914 0.00952332 0.0892976 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m1 537547 517053 0.0396362 0.0826596 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1014560 989408 0.0254213 0.0569566 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-05-31
money supply m3 1024980 999916 0.0250661 0.0288722 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 112.3 110.8 0.0135379 0.123 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 12.3 11.3 0.0884956 -2.70833 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 9.7 -0.3 -33.3333 -3.62162 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
retail sales 9.7 9.7 0 0.127907 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-05-31
unemployment rate 3.3 3.4 -0.0294118 -0.0833333 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 8.7 8.8 -0.0113636 -0.0842105 -1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
Construction sector 21.8 11.5 0.895652 -2.744 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Consumer sector 0.8 -4.1 -1.19512 -1.0354 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 7 -2.3 -4.04348 -1.26217 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Retail sector 1 -9.7 -1.10309 -1.06711 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Services sector 2.4 -11.4 -1.21053 -1.06202 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 108.6 97.9 0.109295 0.580786 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01

AEX Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: AEX momentum, AEX trend, AEX oscillator, AEX RSI and AEX returns.

AEX Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarAEX momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The AEX momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the AEX. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. AEX return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. AEX momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when AEX momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

AEX trend

AEX trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. AEX trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. AEX Closing price vs AEX moving average (MA) calculation: If AEX is greater than AEX MA value is +1, else -1, 2. AEX Moving average slope calculation: if current AEX moving average is higher than the previous MA, AEX upward slope +1, else -1
AEX trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. AEX trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when AEX trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The AEX 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. AEX is in an uptrend when AEX price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the AEX 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the AEX oscillator and AEX RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

AEX oscillator

The AEX oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current AEX price versus AEX 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the AEX oscillator is:
AEX oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days AEX simple moving average price) / (250 days AEX price standard deviation)

AEX oversold conditions
AEX is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the AEX is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the AEX oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the AEX oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of AEX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the AEX RSI.
AEX overbought conditions
AEX is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the AEX is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the AEX oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the AEX quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

AEX RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when AEX is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During AEX uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

AEX returns

MacroVar calculates AEX returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

AEX returns = (AEX Closing Price – AEX Previous Price)/(AEX Previous Price)
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