Nigeria Economy

15 October 2020

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Nigeria News

Nigeria Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
NSE All Share Index ALLSHARE 37952.7 1 1 2.61206 88.9837 0.25 -1.88 -2.72 0.41038
Nigeria ETF NGE 11.19 -0.5 0.25 0.50922 46.5088 -6.75 -10.19 -8.8 -0.18826
Nigerian Naira US Dollar (NGN/USD) NGNUSD 411 -0.5 0.5 0.02686 51.8916 0 0 8 0.03733
Nigeria 10-year bond yield NG.10Y 12.61 0.5 0 -0.77447 89.7151 1.29 1.11 3.64 -0.36435
Nigeria 2-Year Bond Yield NG.2Y 10.99 0.5 -0.25 -1.10733 60.2325 3.27 -2.15 75.7 -0.83453
Nigeria Yield Curve NG.YC 1.62 0 0.75 0.7439 60.2399 -10.4 -15.4 -69.16 -77.2763

Nigeria Economy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 0.51 0.11 3.63636 -0.730159 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2020-07-01
unemployment rate 33.3 27.1 0.228782 1.75207 1.0 1.0 0 2018-11-01
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 49 48.8 0.00409836 -0.0410959 1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-30
services pmi 47.3 47.9 -0.0125261 -0.0386179 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-04-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 34.98 29.1 0.202062 3.79178 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 32860 33348.1 -0.0146365 0.488771 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 33420 34250 -0.0242336 -0.0773054 -1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 21.46 21.37 0.00421151 0.00421151 1.0 1.0 1 2020-08-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1750.6 -5264.53 -0.667473 -2.24136 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -4.2 -3.3 0.272727 -1.29577 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 11.5 11.5 0 -0.148148 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-25
money supply m2 38849000 38382900 0.0121434 0.195703 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -1483.93 -1544.48 -0.0392041 1.92654 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
government revenues 903.52 997.49 -0.0942065 -0.0405844 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
fiscal expenditure 2387.46 2541.97 -0.0607836 0.647888 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31

Nigeria Economic analysis

Analyzes table above + combine text with economic analysis (short / detailed) > link to specific sections, mention ESI sector analsysi

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Nigeria Business activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence -15.2 -1.5 9.13333 -1.55678 -1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2020-11-01
manufacturing pmi 49 48.8 0.00409836 -0.0410959 1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-30
services pmi 47.3 47.9 -0.0125261 -0.0386179 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-04-30
composite pmi 53.6 54.4 -0.0147059 0.155172 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-06-30

Nigeria Consumer activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -14.8 -21.2 -0.301887 -15.8 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-06-01

Nigeria Manufacturing activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 49 48.8 0.00409836 -0.0410959 1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-30
industrial production 1.6 -10.3 -1.15534 -0.835052 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-01
capacity utilization 45.4 43.8 0.0365297 -0.0639175 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-08-01

Nigeria Services activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 47.3 47.9 -0.0125261 -0.0386179 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-04-30

Nigeria GDP

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 16826900 19550100 -0.139293 0.0364583 -1.0 1.0 0.2 2020-11-01
gdp growth annual 0.51 0.11 3.63636 -0.730159 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2020-07-01
gdp 432.3 448.1 -0.03526 0.282652 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth -13.9 9.68 -2.43595 0.0334572 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-11-01

Nigeria inflation

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
core inflation rate 13.09 13.2 -0.00833333 0.292201 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 384 379.9 0.0107923 0.177553 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30

Nigeria Government Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -3.8 -4.2 -0.0952381 37 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -1483.93 -1544.48 -0.0392041 1.92654 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
government revenues 903.52 997.49 -0.0942065 -0.0405844 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
fiscal expenditure 2387.46 2541.97 -0.0607836 0.647888 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31

Nigeria Monetary Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 11.5 11.5 0 -0.148148 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-25
money supply m0 2790900 2796470 -0.0019918 0.185931 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
money supply m1 16278000 15996600 0.0175912 0.314141 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-05-31
money supply m2 38849000 38382900 0.0121434 0.195703 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31

Nigeria Employment

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 33.3 27.1 0.228782 1.75207 1.0 1.0 0 2018-11-01
youth unemployment rate 53.4 40.8 0.308824 1.48372 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-31

Nigeria Trade & Capital Flows

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1750.6 -5264.53 -0.667473 -2.24136 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -4.2 -3.3 0.272727 -1.29577 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 1070270 949123 0.127641 0.10836 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-03-31
imports 2193560 2456670 -0.1071 0.555551 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-03-31
balance of trade -830085 -850196 -0.0236545 -7.20629 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2020-09-30

Nigeria Reserves

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 33420 34250 -0.0242336 -0.0773054 -1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 21.46 21.37 0.00421151 0.00421151 1.0 1.0 1 2020-08-01

Nigeria Debt

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 34.98 29.1 0.202062 3.79178 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 32860 33348.1 -0.0146365 0.488771 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01

Nigeria Banking activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
deposit interest rate 3.05 3.13 -0.0255591 -0.504065 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-03-31
lending rate 11.13 11.21 -0.00713649 -0.243372 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-03-31
cash reserve ratio 27.5 27.5 0 0.222222 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2020-03-31
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