Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) closed up by 0.65% to 3.88 on 23 January 2021 and +2.07% on a weekly basis. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend is -50.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum exhaustion is -0.95302 indicating Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is oversold.Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI is 58.1426 .

Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD Chart

Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD

Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD). Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trading signals presented in the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD)PLNUSD3.880.5-0.5-0.9530258.14260.652.072.77-0.01397

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) closed at 3.88 on 23 January 2021. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum exhaustion is -0.95302 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI was last calculated at 58.1426. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 3.68112 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 3.77078 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 3.90013 in a downtrend. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 0.65%, and weekly return was last recorded at 2.07%. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 7.91539%, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) alpha None, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) beta None and Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD News

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Factors

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD)

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Poland PMI vs FXPL.FACT.FXPMI3.683147.3683-1.52262
Poland ESI vs FXPL.FACT.FXESI3.9527110.1761.7371

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) related Indicators

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD)

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
POLISH ZLOTY Implied VolatilityFX Implied VolatilityPLNUSD.IV8.2600.250.4823448.1927-0.48-4.84-11.660.86735
EURO / POLISH ZLOTY Implied VolatilityFX Implied VolatilityEURPLNIV5.18-0.50.250.3917948.6419-3.54-5.99-13.380.8877
Poland PMI vs FXFX vs PMI FactorPL.FACT.FXPMI3.6831
Poland ESI vs FXFX vs ESI FactorPL.FACT.FXESI3.9527

Poland Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
WIG IndexWIG67093.910.751.4808365.6529-0.80.5412.33-0.02163
Poland ETFEPOL21.5310.751.2365863.1985-0.92-1.429.62-0.07005
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD)PLNUSD3.880.5-0.5-0.9530258.14260.652.072.77-0.01397
Poland 10-Year Bond YieldPL.10Y1.54-1-1-0.9224440.9961-9.73-14.59-3.27-0.41051
Poland 5-Year Bond YieldPL.5Y1.07-1-1-1.0337339.714-11.93-22.2928.45-0.77592
Poland 2-year bond yieldPL.2Y0.33-0.5-0.75-0.7512941.4264-28.1-12.7230-0.9866
Poland Yield CurvePL.YC1.220.5-0.250.7171651.6307-2.17-14.39-18.230.82389
Poland Credit Default SwapsCDS.Poland45-1-1-1.078241.5864200-4.26-0.12234

Poland Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade1851300-0.857692-0.864568-1.0-1.00.4666672021-05-31
banks balance sheet253036025082300.008822960.07590191.01.00.6833332021-05-31
building permits48673374520.299610.311835-1.01.00.9666672021-05-31
business confidence-0.6-0.31-0.9698491.01.00.32021-06-30
capacity utilization78.577.60.0115979-0.0519324-1.0-1.00.2166672020-08-01
capital flows15334001-0.616846-0.289949-1.0-1.00.52021-05-31
car registrations43711413880.05612740.221081.01.00.852021-06-30
cash reserve ratio0.53.5-0.857143-0.857143-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
central bank balance sheet7637497349490.03918640.1858741.01.00.7333332021-05-31
consumer confidence-14.8-14.60.0136986-0.2371131.01.00.6833332021-06-30
consumer price index cpi192.8192.60.001038420.04272581.01.00.952021-06-30
core inflation rate3.54-0.125-0.146341-1.0-1.00.452021-06-30
current account601740-0.965517-0.96144-1.0-1.00.32021-05-31
current account to gdp3.60.56.2-1.537311.01.002020-01-31
deposit interest rate0.50.500-1.0-1.00.5083332020-03-31
exports2263623384-0.03198770.4174081.01.00.9833332021-05-31
external debt361468372028-0.028385-0.08692531.0-1.00.06666672021-01-01
fiscal expenditure1721291379080.248144-0.0591525-1.0-1.00.08333332021-05-31
foreign direct investment2095051997900.04862610.7298451.01.002018-02-28
foreign exchange reserves159406162734-0.02045060.2348631.01.00.9333332021-06-30
gdp594.16595.86-0.002853020.1134721.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP6186445556870.1132960.1271151.01.00.1666672020-04-01
gdp growth1.10.90.222222-0.1538461.0-1.00.5166672021-02-01
gdp growth annual-0.9-1.2-0.25-1.16364-1.0-1.00.08333332021-02-01
gold reserves228.66228.7-0.0001749021.220651.01.00.9666672020-05-01
government budget-7-0.790.944444-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget93509158.40.0209207-1.361261.01.00.2333332021-05-31
government debt11221501131760-0.00849120.04174791.01.00.52021-04-30
government debt to gdp57.545.60.2609650.2419011.01.002020-01-31
government revenues1814791470660.2339970.155402-1.01.00.8166672021-05-31
housing index141.16138.420.01979480.2893681.01.002021-01-01
imports22451220840.01661840.5373191.01.00.9833332021-05-31
industrial production18.429.8-0.3825535.81.01.012021-06-30
industrial production mom1.6-0.7-3.28571-0.8415841.0-1.00.52021-05-31
inflation cpi4.44.7-0.06382980.3333331.01.00.7583332021-06-30
interbank rate0.110.1100-1.0-1.00.5083332021-06-02
interest rate0.10.1001.0-1.00.6252021-05-05
long term unemployment rate0.90.60.5-0.1818181.0-1.00.7166672021-01-01
manufacturing pmi59.457.20.03846150.2584751.01.00.952021-06-30
money supply m04123153937540.04713860.2936351.01.00.952021-05-31
money supply m1162287016069800.009888110.2126721.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m2186643018543600.006508980.08987981.01.00.452021-05-31
money supply m3187197018599600.006457130.08967871.01.00.452021-05-31
Producer Price Index111.7110.80.008122740.06685771.01.012021-05-31
PPI Index76.50.0769231-9.751.01.00.06666672021-06-30
retail sales MoM6.1-4.9-2.2449-0.4245281.0-1.00.72021-05-31
retail sales19.125.7-0.256809-3.220931.01.00.06666672021-05-31
unemployment rate6.16.3-0.0317460.0166667-1.01.00.7833332021-05-31
youth unemployment rate13.512.60.07142860.3636361.01.00.92021-05-31
Construction sector-19.5-26.5-0.264151-0.5334931.01.00.1333332021-04-01
Consumer sector-8.2-13.2-0.378788-0.6450221.01.00.5166672021-04-01
Manufacturing sector-9.2-16.8-0.452381-0.7628871.01.00.03333332021-04-01
Retail sector-5.5-11.7-0.529915-0.8348351.01.00.32021-04-01
Services sector-9.2-18.6-0.505376-0.7845431.01.00.4833332021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite101.690.30.1251380.6989971.01.012021-04-01

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI and Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) returns.

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarPolish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD). The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Polish Zloty US Dollar PLN/USD momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Closing price vs Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) moving average (MA) calculation: If Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is greater than Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Moving average slope calculation: if current Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) moving average is higher than the previous MA, Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) upward slope +1, else -1
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is in an uptrend when Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator and Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator

The Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) price versus Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator is:
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) simple moving average price) / (250 days Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) price standard deviation)

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oversold conditions
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI.
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) overbought conditions
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) returns

MacroVar calculates Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) returns = (Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Closing Price – Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Previous Price)/(Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) Previous Price)
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