Poland Economy

Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.5 by -82.14% on July 2020 from -8.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -127.27%. Poland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.075.Poland’s inflation cpi decreased to 3.0 by -3.23% on November 2020 from 3.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s inflation cpi increased by 15.38%. Poland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.48333.Poland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 6.1 by 1.67% on June 2020 from 6.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s unemployment rate increased by 15.09%. Poland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.425.

Poland Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
WIG Index WIG 67093.9 1 0.75 1.48083 65.6529 -0.8 0.54 12.33 -0.02163
Poland ETF EPOL 21.53 1 0.75 1.23658 63.1985 -0.92 -1.42 9.62 -0.07005
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) PLNUSD 3.88 0.5 -0.5 -0.95302 58.1426 0.65 2.07 2.77 -0.01397
Poland 10-Year Bond Yield PL.10Y 1.54 -1 -1 -0.92244 40.9961 -9.73 -14.59 -3.27 -0.41051
Poland 5-Year Bond Yield PL.5Y 1.07 -1 -1 -1.03373 39.714 -11.93 -22.29 28.45 -0.77592
Poland 2-year bond yield PL.2Y 0.33 -0.5 -0.75 -0.75129 41.4264 -28.1 -12.7 230 -0.9866
Poland Yield Curve PL.YC 1.22 0.5 -0.25 0.71716 51.6307 -2.17 -14.39 -18.23 0.82389
Poland Credit Default Swaps CDS.Poland 45 -1 -1 -1.07824 1.58642 0 0 -4.26 -0.12234

WIG Index closed up by 0.01306% to 57770.8 on 23 January 2021 and +0.0483% on a weekly basis. WIG Index momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. WIG Index trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. WIG Index momentum exhaustion is 1.48083 indicating WIG Index is oversold.Poland ETF closed up by 0.02275% to 19.78 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01332% on a weekly basis. Poland ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Poland ETF trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. Poland ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.23658 indicating Poland ETF is oversold.Poland 10-Year Bond Yield closed down by -0.03195% to 1.212 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.04341% on a weekly basis. Poland 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Poland 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Poland 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.92244 indicating Poland 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) closed up by 0.00214% to 3.741 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01163% on a weekly basis. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) trend is -0.5/100 indicating a negative trend. Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) momentum exhaustion is -0.95302 indicating Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) is oversold.Poland Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 50.0 on 23 January 2021 and +0.0% on a weekly basis. Poland Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Poland Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Poland Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.07824 indicating Poland Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

Poland Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Poland Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Poland’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Poland macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Poland Macro Model

 

Poland News

Poland Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -0.9 -1.2 -0.25 -1.16364 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-02-01
inflation cpi 4.4 4.7 -0.0638298 0.333333 1.0 1.0 0.758333 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 6.1 6.3 -0.031746 0.0166667 -1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 101.6 90.3 0.125138 0.698997 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 59.4 57.2 0.0384615 0.258475 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 1122150 1131760 -0.0084912 0.0417479 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-30
government debt to gdp 57.5 45.6 0.260965 0.241901 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 361468 372028 -0.028385 -0.0869253 1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 159406 162734 -0.0204506 0.234863 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 228.66 228.7 -0.000174902 1.22065 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-05-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 60 1740 -0.965517 -0.96144 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 3.6 0.5 6.2 -1.53731 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.1 0.1 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.625 2021-05-05
central bank balance sheet 763749 734949 0.0391864 0.185874 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 2530360 2508230 0.00882296 0.0759019 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1866430 1854360 0.00650898 0.0898798 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 9350 9158.4 0.0209207 -1.36126 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
government revenues 181479 147066 0.233997 0.155402 -1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 172129 137908 0.248144 -0.0591525 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-05-31

Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.5 by -82.14% on July 2020 from -8.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -127.27%. Poland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.075.Poland’s inflation cpi decreased to 3.0 by -3.23% on November 2020 from 3.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s inflation cpi increased by 15.38%. Poland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.48333.Poland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 6.1 by 1.67% on June 2020 from 6.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s unemployment rate increased by 15.09%. Poland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.425.Poland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 50.8 by 0.4% on September 2020 from 50.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 6.28%. Poland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 50.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.0167.Poland’s building permits icnreased to 92375.0 by 9.68% on November 2020 from 84224.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s building permits increased by 2.37%. Poland’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 92375.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 52213.6.Poland’s business confidence decreased to -14.8 by -27.8% on December 2020 from -20.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s business confidence increased by 202.04%. Poland’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -14.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.6333.Poland’s consumer confidence decreased to -24.9 by -14.73% on December 2020 from -29.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s consumer confidence decreased by -679.07%. Poland’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.4417.

Poland Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence -0.6 -0.3 1 -0.969849 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 101.6 90.3 0.125138 0.698997 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 59.4 57.2 0.0384615 0.258475 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector -9.2 -16.8 -0.452381 -0.762887 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -8.2 -13.2 -0.378788 -0.645022 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Construction sector -19.5 -26.5 -0.264151 -0.533493 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Retail sector -5.5 -11.7 -0.529915 -0.834835 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Services sector -9.2 -18.6 -0.505376 -0.784543 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01

 

Poland’s business confidence decreased to -14.8 by -27.8% on December 2020 from -20.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s business confidence increased by 202.04%. Poland’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -14.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.6333.Poland’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 70.1 by -1193.0% on January 2021 from 79.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -3253.0%. Poland’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 70.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 76.725.Poland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 50.8 by 0.4% on September 2020 from 50.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 6.28%. Poland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 50.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.0167.Poland’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -23.1 by 2031.0% on January 2021 from -19.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing sector increased by 13333.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -23.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.5167.Poland’s Consumer sector icnreased to -19.2 by 2229.0% on January 2021 from -15.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer sector decreased by -71936.0%. Poland’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -19.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.6417.Poland’s Construction sector icnreased to -28.0 by 1200.0% on January 2021 from -25.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction sector increased by 15454.0%. Poland’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.9167.Poland’s Retail sector icnreased to -23.9 by 12981.0% on January 2021 from -10.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail sector increased by 388333.0%. Poland’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -23.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.1167.Poland’s Services sector icnreased to -26.9 by 4462.0% on January 2021 from -18.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services sector increased by 374286.0%. Poland’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.975.

Poland Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -14.8 -14.6 0.0136986 -0.237113 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-06-30
car registrations 43711 41388 0.0561274 0.22108 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -28.6 -40.7 -0.297297 -0.523333 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 1.2 -4.4 -1.27273 -1.04013 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 46.9 53.1 -0.116761 -0.254372 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 38.4 43.1 -0.109049 -0.50065 -1.0 -1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) 5.9 6.1 -0.0327869 -3.80952 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -7 -3.7 0.891892 -0.700855 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 8.7 11.9 -0.268908 0.115385 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01

Poland’s consumer confidence decreased to -24.9 by -14.73% on December 2020 from -29.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s consumer confidence decreased by -679.07%. Poland’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.4417.Poland’s car registrations icnreased to 41675.0 by 4.02% on November 2020 from 40064.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s car registrations decreased by -8.15%. Poland’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 41675.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35778.2.Poland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -48.4 by 2539.0% on January 2021 from -38.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -701429.0%. Poland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -48.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -28.25.Poland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -12.2 by 2577.0% on January 2021 from -9.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -39756.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.16667.Poland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 44.6 by 1349.0% on January 2021 from 39.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 14239.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 44.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 38.95.Poland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 55.0 by 3995.0% on January 2021 from 39.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -1843330.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 55.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.0333.Poland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased to -2.4 by -4286.0% on January 2021 from -4.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased by -40000.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.55.Poland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -10.3 by -5118.0% on January 2021 from -21.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -5617.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.5833.Poland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 9.6 by 2632.0% on January 2021 from 7.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 2000.0%. Poland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 9.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.80833.

Poland Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 59.4 57.2 0.0384615 0.258475 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector -9.2 -16.8 -0.452381 -0.762887 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -36.1 -43.4 -0.168203 -0.32397 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 22.3 15.6 0.429487 -7.02703 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -0.5 -13.3 -0.962406 -0.980237 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -39.9 -45.8 -0.128821 -0.296296 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -4.1 -1.5 1.73333 -3.27778 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 4.5 -8.5 -1.52941 -1.07353 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
industrial production 18.4 29.8 -0.38255 35.8 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
industrial production mom 1.6 -0.7 -3.28571 -0.841584 1.0 -1.0 0.5 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 78.5 77.6 0.0115979 -0.0519324 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2020-08-01

Poland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 50.8 by 0.4% on September 2020 from 50.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 6.28%. Poland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 50.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.0167.Poland’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -23.1 by 2031.0% on January 2021 from -19.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing sector increased by 13333.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -23.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.5167.Poland’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -46.1 by -22.0% on January 2021 from -46.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 4451.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -46.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -46.7833.Poland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 0.8 by -8140.0% on January 2021 from 4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -8873.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.13333.Poland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -12.5 by 12727.0% on January 2021 from -5.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 52500.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -12.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.825.Poland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -50.2 by -99.0% on January 2021 from -50.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 3039.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -50.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -51.9083.Poland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 1.2 by -2000.0% on January 2021 from 1.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -30000.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.45833.Poland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to -22.1 by 12551.0% on January 2021 from -9.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -148125.0%. Poland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -22.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.3333.Poland’s industrial production icnreased to 5.4 by 440.0% on November 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s industrial production increased by 285.71%. Poland’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 5.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.575.Poland’s industrial production mom decreased to 1.6 by -48.39% on October 2020 from 3.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s industrial production mom increased by 33.33%. Poland’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.691667.Poland’s capacity utilization icnreased to 78.3 by 6.1% on June 2020 from 73.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s capacity utilization decreased by -3.81%. Poland’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 78.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 79.8417.

Poland Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -9.2 -18.6 -0.505376 -0.784543 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) -3.4 -15 -0.773333 -0.939286 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 9.1 1.2 6.58333 -1.56522 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -13.2 -21.2 -0.377358 -0.635359 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -11.1 -19.7 -0.436548 -0.690808 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -6.9 -10.7 -0.35514 -0.415254 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) -0.4 -7.8 -0.948718 -0.983471 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01

Poland’s Services sector icnreased to -26.9 by 4462.0% on January 2021 from -18.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services sector increased by 374286.0%. Poland’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.975.Poland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -31.9 by 5485.0% on January 2021 from -20.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -807500.0%. Poland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -31.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.0917.Poland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -4.5 by 30909.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -20227.0%. Poland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.64167.Poland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -25.0 by 4045.0% on January 2021 from -17.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 156667.0%. Poland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.925.Poland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -23.9 by 3736.0% on January 2021 from -17.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) increased by 229000.0%. Poland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.9.Poland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -9.5 by 1047.0% on January 2021 from -8.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) increased by 63077.0%. Poland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.95.Poland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -8.4 by 4237.0% on January 2021 from -5.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -56667.0%. Poland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.075.

Poland Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -5.5 -11.7 -0.529915 -0.834835 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -3.1 -14.7 -0.789116 -0.947099 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 24.4 19.5 0.251282 2.93548 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -9.3 -14.8 -0.371622 -0.685811 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 4.9 6.1 -0.196721 -0.577586 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -2.3 -14.2 -0.838028 -0.960818 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 0.6 -5.4 -1.11111 -1.01935 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
retail sales 19.1 25.7 -0.256809 -3.22093 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 6.1 -4.9 -2.2449 -0.424528 1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-05-31

Poland’s Retail sector icnreased to -23.9 by 12981.0% on January 2021 from -10.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail sector increased by 388333.0%. Poland’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -23.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.1167.Poland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -43.9 by 9864.0% on January 2021 from -22.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 152593.0%. Poland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -43.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.425.Poland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 9.4 by -2598.0% on January 2021 from 12.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -4125.0%. Poland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.1667.Poland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -21.9 by 31321.0% on January 2021 from -5.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -85517.0%. Poland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -21.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.4917.Poland’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 6.2 by 2157.0% on January 2021 from 5.1 in the previous . Poland’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 6.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.84167.Poland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -43.6 by 10861.0% on January 2021 from -20.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -345385.0%. Poland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -43.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.025.Poland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -16.6 by 7849.0% on January 2021 from -9.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) increased by 197500.0%. Poland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.6917.Poland’s retail sales icnreased to -5.3 by 152.38% on November 2020 from -2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s retail sales decreased by -189.83%. Poland’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -5.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.58333.Poland’s retail sales MoM decreased to 0.1 by -111.11% on October 2020 from -0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s retail sales MoM decreased by -91.67%. Poland’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.516667.

Poland Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -19.5 -26.5 -0.264151 -0.533493 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -36.1 -41.3 -0.125908 -0.140476 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 13.5 3.5 2.85714 -1.7337 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months -2.9 -11.6 -0.75 -0.930456 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
building permits 48673 37452 0.29961 0.311835 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
housing index 141.16 138.42 0.0197948 0.289368 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -12.4 -19.7 -0.370558 -0.576792 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 5.3 4.8 0.104167 0.232558 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 25.1 27 -0.0703704 0.21256 -1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 24.4 19.3 0.264249 1.56842 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 33.2 29.9 0.110368 0.00302115 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 4.9 4.5 0.0888889 -0.183333 1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 71.1 69.5 0.0230216 0.0394737 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 76.2 80 -0.0475 -0.0498753 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01

Poland’s Construction sector icnreased to -28.0 by 1200.0% on January 2021 from -25.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction sector increased by 15454.0%. Poland’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.9167.Poland’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -44.0 by 732.0% on January 2021 from -41.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 10000.0%. Poland’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.5.Poland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -6.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from -3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -16000.0%. Poland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.166667.Poland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months icnreased to -12.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months increased by 110000.0%. Poland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.4167.Poland’s building permits icnreased to 92375.0 by 9.68% on November 2020 from 84224.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s building permits increased by 2.37%. Poland’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 92375.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 52213.6.Poland’s housing index icnreased to 134.31 by 2.01% on February 2020 from 131.66 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s housing index increased by 27.38%. Poland’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 134.31 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 118.449.Poland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -25.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from -20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 115000.0%. Poland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.0833.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -2857.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.41667.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 29.0 by 357.0% on January 2021 from 28.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 10714.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 23.0.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -1667.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.5833.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 31.0 by -312.0% on January 2021 from 32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -2955.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 31.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.1667.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.16667.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -946.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 67.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 70.3333.Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 82.0 by 250.0% on January 2021 from 80.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 3898.0%. Poland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 82.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 74.0.

Poland GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 618644 555687 0.113296 0.127115 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2020-04-01
gdp growth annual -0.9 -1.2 -0.25 -1.16364 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-02-01
gdp 594.16 595.86 -0.00285302 0.113472 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 1.1 0.9 0.222222 -0.153846 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-02-01

Poland’s Real GDP icnreased to 555687.0 by 10.02% on March 2020 from 505069.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s Real GDP increased by 14.02%. Poland’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 555687.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 536437.0.Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.5 by -82.14% on July 2020 from -8.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -127.27%. Poland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.075.Poland’s gdp icnreased to 592.16 by 0.86% on January 2019 from 587.11 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gdp increased by 38.01%. Poland’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 592.16 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 517.252.Poland’s gdp growth decreased to 7.9 by -187.78% on July 2020 from -9.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gdp growth increased by 618.18%. Poland’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 7.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.741667.

Poland inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 4.4 4.7 -0.0638298 0.333333 1.0 1.0 0.758333 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 3.5 4 -0.125 -0.146341 -1.0 -1.0 0.45 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 192.8 192.6 0.00103842 0.0427258 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 111.7 110.8 0.00812274 0.0668577 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 7 6.5 0.0769231 -9.75 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-30

Poland’s inflation cpi decreased to 3.0 by -3.23% on November 2020 from 3.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s inflation cpi increased by 15.38%. Poland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.48333.Poland’s core inflation rate icnreased to 4.3 by 2.38% on November 2020 from 4.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s core inflation rate increased by 65.38%. Poland’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.83333.Poland’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 185.1 by 0.11% on November 2020 from 184.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s consumer price index cpi increased by 3.01%. Poland’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 185.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 184.05.Poland’s Producer Price Index On a year on year basis Poland’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.09%. Poland’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 105.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 105.458.Poland’s PPI Index decreased to -0.2 by -50.0% on November 2020 from -0.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s PPI Index increased by 100.0%. Poland’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.5.

Poland Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -7 -0.7 9 0.944444 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 9350 9158.4 0.0209207 -1.36126 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
government revenues 181479 147066 0.233997 0.155402 -1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 172129 137908 0.248144 -0.0591525 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-05-31

Poland’s Government budget icnreased to -13204.8 by 9.4% on November 2020 from -12070.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s Government budget increased by 601.56%. Poland’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -13204.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12784.9.Poland’s government revenues icnreased to 382488.0 by 11.2% on November 2020 from 343973.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s government revenues increased by 4.19%. Poland’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 382488.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 218897.0.Poland’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 395692.0 by 11.14% on November 2020 from 356043.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s fiscal expenditure increased by 7.24%. Poland’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 395692.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 231682.0.

Poland Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.1 0.1 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.625 2021-05-05
central bank balance sheet 763749 734949 0.0391864 0.185874 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 2530360 2508230 0.00882296 0.0759019 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-05-31
money supply m0 412315 393754 0.0471386 0.293635 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
money supply m1 1622870 1606980 0.00988811 0.212672 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1866430 1854360 0.00650898 0.0898798 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
money supply m3 1871970 1859960 0.00645713 0.0896787 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31

Poland’s interest rate decreased to 0.1 by -80.0% on May 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Poland’s interest rate decreased by -93.33%. Poland’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.27917.Poland’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 670283.0 by -3.77% on November 2020 from 696573.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s central bank balance sheet increased by 36.02%. Poland’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 670283.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 606886.0.Poland’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 2412700.0 by 0.53% on August 2020 from 2400060.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s banks balance sheet increased by 17.21%. Poland’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 2412700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2217990.0.Poland’s money supply m2 icnreased to 1783810.0 by 0.49% on November 2020 from 1775040.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s money supply m2 increased by 16.56%. Poland’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 1783810.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1682360.0.

Poland Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 103.5 94.4 0.0963983 0.629921 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 6.1 6.3 -0.031746 0.0166667 -1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 13.5 12.6 0.0714286 0.363636 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 0.9 0.6 0.5 -0.181818 1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2021-01-01

Poland’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 87.3 by -713.0% on January 2021 from 94.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Poland’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1491.0%. Poland’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 87.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 90.0917.Poland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 6.1 by 1.67% on June 2020 from 6.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s unemployment rate increased by 15.09%. Poland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.425.Poland’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 12.9 by 8.4% on October 2020 from 11.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s youth unemployment rate increased by 53.57%. Poland’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 12.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.1583.Poland’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 0.6 by -14.29% on April 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -60.0%. Poland’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.933333.

Poland Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 60 1740 -0.965517 -0.96144 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 3.6 0.5 6.2 -1.53731 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 22636 23384 -0.0319877 0.417408 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 22451 22084 0.0166184 0.537319 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
balance of trade 185 1300 -0.857692 -0.864568 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
capital flows 1533 4001 -0.616846 -0.289949 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 2021-05-31
foreign direct investment 209505 199790 0.0486261 0.729845 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28

Poland’s current account icnreased to 2241.0 by 109.05% on October 2020 from 1072.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s current account increased by 822.22%. Poland’s current account trend is down since the current value of 2241.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1510.58.Poland’s current account to gdp decreased to 0.5 by -150.0% on January 2019 from -1.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Poland’s current account to gdp decreased by -107.94%. Poland’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.49167.Poland’s exports icnreased to 22965.0 by 8.79% on October 2020 from 21109.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s exports increased by 8.64%. Poland’s exports trend is down since the current value of 22965.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18943.5.Poland’s imports icnreased to 21233.0 by 6.85% on October 2020 from 19871.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s imports decreased by -3.45%. Poland’s imports trend is down since the current value of 21233.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18048.0.Poland’s balance of trade icnreased to 1732.0 by 39.9% on October 2020 from 1238.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s balance of trade increased by 1086.3%. Poland’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 1732.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 895.5.Poland’s capital flows icnreased to 7484.0 by 398.93% on October 2020 from 1500.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s capital flows increased by 289.39%. Poland’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 7484.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3247.92.Poland’s foreign direct investment icnreased to 209505.0 by 4.86% on February 2018 from 199790.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Poland’s foreign direct investment increased by 72.98%. Poland’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 209505.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 169928.0.

Poland Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 159406 162734 -0.0204506 0.234863 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 228.66 228.7 -0.000174902 1.22065 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-05-01

Poland’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 144412.0 by 0.9% on November 2020 from 143117.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 20.52%. Poland’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 144412.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 132241.0.Poland’s gold reserves decreased to 228.66 by -0.02% on May 2020 from 228.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s gold reserves increased by 122.06%. Poland’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 228.66 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 162.488.Poland’s government debt icnreased to 1103570.0 by 0.31% on October 2020 from 1100120.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s government debt increased by 14.85%. Poland’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1103570.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1049910.0.Poland’s government debt to gdp decreased to 46.0 by -5.74% on January 2019 from 48.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Poland’s government debt to gdp increased by 4.07%. Poland’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 46.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1333.Poland’s external debt icnreased to 352111.0 by 4.96% on May 2020 from 335481.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s external debt decreased by -5.23%. Poland’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 352111.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 356304.0.

Poland Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 1122150 1131760 -0.0084912 0.0417479 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-30
government debt to gdp 57.5 45.6 0.260965 0.241901 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 361468 372028 -0.028385 -0.0869253 1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-01-01

Poland’s government debt icnreased to 1103570.0 by 0.31% on October 2020 from 1100120.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s government debt increased by 14.85%. Poland’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1103570.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1049910.0.Poland’s government debt to gdp decreased to 46.0 by -5.74% on January 2019 from 48.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Poland’s government debt to gdp increased by 4.07%. Poland’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 46.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1333.Poland’s external debt icnreased to 352111.0 by 4.96% on May 2020 from 335481.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Poland’s external debt decreased by -5.23%. Poland’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 352111.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 356304.0.

Poland Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.11 0.11 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2020-03-31
cash reserve ratio 0.5 3.5 -0.857143 -0.857143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-30

Poland’s interbank rate Poland’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 1.62 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.62.Poland’s deposit interest rate Poland’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.5.Poland’s cash reserve ratio decreased to 0.5 by -85.71% on April 2020 from 3.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Poland’s cash reserve ratio decreased by -85.71%. Poland’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.25.

 

Poland macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Poland economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Poland Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Poland Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Poland’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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