WIG Index

WIG Index closed down by -0.8% to 67093.9 on 23 January 2021 and +0.54% on a weekly basis. WIG Index momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. WIG Index trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. WIG Index momentum exhaustion is 1.48083 indicating WIG Index is oversold.WIG Index RSI is 65.6529 .

WIG Index Chart

WIG Index

WIG Index Statistics

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
WIG Index WIG 67093.9 1 0.75 1.48083 65.6529 -0.8 0.54 12.33 -0.02163

WIG Index closed at 67093.9 on 23 January 2021. WIG Index trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. WIG Index momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. WIG Index momentum exhaustion is 1.48083 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating WIG Index is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. WIG Index RSI was last calculated at 65.6529. WIG Index moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 55850.8 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 51650.7 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 50481.3 in a downtrend. WIG Index annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.8%, and weekly return was last recorded at 0.54%. WIG Index histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 22.142%, WIG Index alpha None, WIG Index beta None and WIG Index maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor WIG Index statistics based on historical data since 1970.

WIG Index News

WIG Index Factors

WIG Index

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Poland PMI vs Stocks PL.FACT.STPMI 50937.3 53.4883 -1.36368
Poland ESI vs Stocks PL.FACT.STESI 45177.2 85.684 0.287427

WIG Index related Indicators

WIG Index

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Poland ETF Stock Index ETF EPOL 21.53 1 0.75 1.23658 63.1985 -0.92 -1.42 9.62 -0.07005
Poland PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor PL.FACT.STPMI 50937.3
Poland ESI vs Stocks Stock Index vs ESI Factor PL.FACT.STESI 45177.2

Poland Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
WIG Index WIG 67093.9 1 0.75 1.48083 65.6529 -0.8 0.54 12.33 -0.02163
Poland ETF EPOL 21.53 1 0.75 1.23658 63.1985 -0.92 -1.42 9.62 -0.07005
Polish Zloty US Dollar (PLN/USD) PLNUSD 3.88 0.5 -0.5 -0.95302 58.1426 0.65 2.07 2.77 -0.01397
Poland 10-Year Bond Yield PL.10Y 1.54 -1 -1 -0.92244 40.9961 -9.73 -14.59 -3.27 -0.41051
Poland 5-Year Bond Yield PL.5Y 1.07 -1 -1 -1.03373 39.714 -11.93 -22.29 28.45 -0.77592
Poland 2-year bond yield PL.2Y 0.33 -0.5 -0.75 -0.75129 41.4264 -28.1 -12.7 230 -0.9866
Poland Yield Curve PL.YC 1.22 0.5 -0.25 0.71716 51.6307 -2.17 -14.39 -18.23 0.82389
Poland Credit Default Swaps CDS.Poland 45 -1 -1 -1.07824 1.58642 0 0 -4.26 -0.12234

Poland Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 185 1300 -0.857692 -0.864568 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 2530360 2508230 0.00882296 0.0759019 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-05-31
building permits 48673 37452 0.29961 0.311835 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
business confidence -0.6 -0.3 1 -0.969849 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-06-30
capacity utilization 78.5 77.6 0.0115979 -0.0519324 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2020-08-01
capital flows 1533 4001 -0.616846 -0.289949 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 2021-05-31
car registrations 43711 41388 0.0561274 0.22108 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
cash reserve ratio 0.5 3.5 -0.857143 -0.857143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-30
central bank balance sheet 763749 734949 0.0391864 0.185874 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
consumer confidence -14.8 -14.6 0.0136986 -0.237113 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 192.8 192.6 0.00103842 0.0427258 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 3.5 4 -0.125 -0.146341 -1.0 -1.0 0.45 2021-06-30
current account 60 1740 -0.965517 -0.96144 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-05-31
current account to gdp 3.6 0.5 6.2 -1.53731 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
deposit interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2020-03-31
exports 22636 23384 -0.0319877 0.417408 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
external debt 361468 372028 -0.028385 -0.0869253 1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 172129 137908 0.248144 -0.0591525 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-05-31
foreign direct investment 209505 199790 0.0486261 0.729845 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28
foreign exchange reserves 159406 162734 -0.0204506 0.234863 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
gdp 594.16 595.86 -0.00285302 0.113472 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP 618644 555687 0.113296 0.127115 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2020-04-01
gdp growth 1.1 0.9 0.222222 -0.153846 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-02-01
gdp growth annual -0.9 -1.2 -0.25 -1.16364 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-02-01
gold reserves 228.66 228.7 -0.000174902 1.22065 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-05-01
government budget -7 -0.7 9 0.944444 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 9350 9158.4 0.0209207 -1.36126 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
government debt 1122150 1131760 -0.0084912 0.0417479 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-30
government debt to gdp 57.5 45.6 0.260965 0.241901 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
government revenues 181479 147066 0.233997 0.155402 -1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
housing index 141.16 138.42 0.0197948 0.289368 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
imports 22451 22084 0.0166184 0.537319 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
industrial production 18.4 29.8 -0.38255 35.8 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
industrial production mom 1.6 -0.7 -3.28571 -0.841584 1.0 -1.0 0.5 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 4.4 4.7 -0.0638298 0.333333 1.0 1.0 0.758333 2021-06-30
interbank rate 0.11 0.11 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2021-06-02
interest rate 0.1 0.1 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.625 2021-05-05
long term unemployment rate 0.9 0.6 0.5 -0.181818 1.0 -1.0 0.716667 2021-01-01
manufacturing pmi 59.4 57.2 0.0384615 0.258475 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
money supply m0 412315 393754 0.0471386 0.293635 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
money supply m1 1622870 1606980 0.00988811 0.212672 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1866430 1854360 0.00650898 0.0898798 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
money supply m3 1871970 1859960 0.00645713 0.0896787 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 111.7 110.8 0.00812274 0.0668577 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 7 6.5 0.0769231 -9.75 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-30
retail sales MoM 6.1 -4.9 -2.2449 -0.424528 1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
retail sales 19.1 25.7 -0.256809 -3.22093 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31
unemployment rate 6.1 6.3 -0.031746 0.0166667 -1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 13.5 12.6 0.0714286 0.363636 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-05-31
Construction sector -19.5 -26.5 -0.264151 -0.533493 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -8.2 -13.2 -0.378788 -0.645022 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector -9.2 -16.8 -0.452381 -0.762887 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail sector -5.5 -11.7 -0.529915 -0.834835 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Services sector -9.2 -18.6 -0.505376 -0.784543 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 101.6 90.3 0.125138 0.698997 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01

WIG Index Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: WIG Index momentum, WIG Index trend, WIG Index oscillator, WIG Index RSI and WIG Index returns.

WIG Index Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarWIG Index momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The WIG Index momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the WIG Index. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. WIG Index return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. WIG Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when WIG Index momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

WIG Index trend

WIG Index trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. WIG Index trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. WIG Index Closing price vs WIG Index moving average (MA) calculation: If WIG Index is greater than WIG Index MA value is +1, else -1, 2. WIG Index Moving average slope calculation: if current WIG Index moving average is higher than the previous MA, WIG Index upward slope +1, else -1
WIG Index trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. WIG Index trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when WIG Index trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The WIG Index 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. WIG Index is in an uptrend when WIG Index price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the WIG Index 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the WIG Index oscillator and WIG Index RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

WIG Index oscillator

The WIG Index oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current WIG Index price versus WIG Index 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the WIG Index oscillator is:
WIG Index oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days WIG Index simple moving average price) / (250 days WIG Index price standard deviation)

WIG Index oversold conditions
WIG Index is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the WIG Index is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the WIG Index oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the WIG Index oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of WIG Index quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the WIG Index RSI.
WIG Index overbought conditions
WIG Index is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the WIG Index is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the WIG Index oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the WIG Index quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

WIG Index RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when WIG Index is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During WIG Index uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

WIG Index returns

MacroVar calculates WIG Index returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

WIG Index returns = (WIG Index Closing Price – WIG Index Previous Price)/(WIG Index Previous Price)
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