Portugal Economy

Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.7 by -65.24% on July 2020 from -16.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased by -272.73%. Portugal’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.175.Portugal’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s inflation cpi increased by 100.0%. Portugal’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.Portugal’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.8 by 39.29% on May 2020 from 5.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s unemployment rate decreased by -8.24%. Portugal’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.84167.

Portugal Financial Markets

 

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
PSI 20 PSI20 5739.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal 20 ETF PGAL 9.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield PT.10Y 3.122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal 5-Year Bond Yield PT.5Y 2.713 1 1 1.64239 59.5592 0.01156 0.09351 0.03038 -9.27134
Portugal 2-year bond yield PT.2Y 2.176 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal Yield Curve PT.YC 1.098 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal Credit Default Swaps CDS.Portugal 58.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PSI 20 closed down by -0.00476% to 4898.36 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01515% on a weekly basis. PSI 20 momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. PSI 20 trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. PSI 20 momentum exhaustion is 1.04677 indicating PSI 20 is oversold.Portugal 20 ETF closed up by 0.01712% to 11.29 on 23 January 2021 and +0.01987% on a weekly basis. Portugal 20 ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Portugal 20 ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Portugal 20 ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.67877 indicating Portugal 20 ETF is oversold.Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield closed up by 0.0% to 0.029 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.51667% on a weekly basis. Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -1.26778 indicating Portugal 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Portugal Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 37.5 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.03846% on a weekly basis. Portugal Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Portugal Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Portugal Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -0.85926 indicating Portugal Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

Portugal Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Portugal Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Portugal’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Portugal macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Portugal Macro Model

 

Portugal News

Portugal Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 4.9 7.4 -34 113 100.0 100.0 83 2022-09-30
inflation cpi 10.2 9.3 10 467 100.0 100.0 82 2022-10-31
unemployment rate 5.7 5.9 -3 -17 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-03-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 100.2 103.2 -3 -8 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-09-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 280611 275995 2 12 100.0 100.0 46 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 127.4 135.2 -6 52 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 405306 401999 0.82 -2.45 Down Down 51.67 2022-11-20
foreign exchange reserves 29200 30199.8 -3.31 1.92 100.0 100.0 95 2022-10-31
gold reserves 382.57 382.5 0 0 100.0 -100.0 63 2020-09-30
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 45.5 260.85 -82.56 -127.18 UP UP 61.67 2022-11-20
current account to gdp -1.2 0.4 -400 -90 100.0 100.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-29
central bank balance sheet 221742 226758 -2.21 0.69 -100.0 100.0 86.6667 2022-10-31
banks balance sheet 490174 491332 -0 4 100.0 100.0 59 2022-08-31
money supply m2 309375 310966 -1 8 100.0 100.0 38 2022-09-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 1030.5 -1355.7 -176 -118 100.0 100.0 7 2022-09-30
government revenues 43214 36827.2 17 21 100.0 100.0 92 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 38182.9 33801.7 13 2 100.0 100.0 48 2022-08-31

Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.7 by -65.24% on July 2020 from -16.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased by -272.73%. Portugal’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.175.Portugal’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s inflation cpi increased by 100.0%. Portugal’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.Portugal’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.8 by 39.29% on May 2020 from 5.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s unemployment rate decreased by -8.24%. Portugal’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.84167.Portugal’s building permits icnreased to 2142.0 by 12.92% on July 2020 from 1897.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s building permits increased by 2.88%. Portugal’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2142.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1870.08.Portugal’s business confidence decreased to -0.1 by -80.0% on November 2020 from -0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s business confidence decreased by -104.76%. Portugal’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.2.Portugal’s consumer confidence icnreased to -26.9 by 5.49% on November 2020 from -25.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s consumer confidence increased by 289.86%. Portugal’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.7667.

 

Portugal Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 1.3 1.6 -19 -46 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-10-31
ESI - Economic Composite 100.2 103.2 -3 -8 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-09-30
Industrial Confidence -5.6 -5.5 2 167 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Consumer Confidence -35.5 -31 15 248 -100.0 -100.0 90 2022-09-30
Construction Confidence -4 -9 -56 -43 100.0 100.0 40 2022-05-31
Retail Confidence 1.6 3.1 -48 -62 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Services Confidence 12 18.5 -35 -2 -100.0 -100.0 65 2022-09-30

Portugal’s business confidence decreased to -0.1 by -80.0% on November 2020 from -0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s business confidence decreased by -104.76%. Portugal’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.2.Portugal’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 84.5 by -474.0% on January 2021 from 88.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2190.0%. Portugal’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 84.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 87.5917.Portugal’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -18.1 by 1312.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing sector increased by 43235.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -18.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.9917.Portugal’s Consumer sector icnreased to -30.8 by 1282.0% on January 2021 from -27.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer sector increased by 39677.0%. Portugal’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -30.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.3333.Portugal’s Construction sector icnreased to -17.0 by 4167.0% on January 2021 from -12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction sector increased by 7000.0%. Portugal’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.1667.Portugal’s Retail sector icnreased to -13.3 by 4778.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail sector decreased by -88235.0%. Portugal’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.1417.Portugal’s Services sector icnreased to -25.9 by 2103.0% on January 2021 from -21.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services sector decreased by -31949.0%. Portugal’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -25.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.0167.

Portugal Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -35.2 -32.7 7.65 83.33 Down Down 5 2022-11-25
car registrations 12560 12469 0.73 18.76 UP UP 33.33 2022-11-20
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -51.9 -47.9 8 3892 -100.0 -100.0 98 2022-09-30
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -25 -17.9 40 -2878 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-09-30
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 48.2 44.6 8 96 -100.0 100.0 63 2022-09-30
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 28.3 22.9 24 237 100.0 100.0 85 2022-09-30
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -36.1 -32.6 11 23 -100.0 -100.0 77 2022-09-30
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -39.1 -31.7 23 121 -100.0 -100.0 98 2022-09-30
Consumer - Households Financial situation 6.5 7.9 -18 -60 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30

Portugal’s consumer confidence icnreased to -26.9 by 5.49% on November 2020 from -25.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s consumer confidence increased by 289.86%. Portugal’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.7667.Portugal’s car registrations decreased to 11826.0 by -13.55% on November 2020 from 13679.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s car registrations decreased by -27.89%. Portugal’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 11826.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12407.6.Portugal’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -57.4 by 1762.0% on January 2021 from -48.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 946667.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -57.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.95.Portugal’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -12.3 by 3085.0% on January 2021 from -9.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -35102.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.55833.Portugal’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 16.0 by -2040.0% on January 2021 from 20.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 10253.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.7083.Portugal’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 71.7 by 1490.0% on January 2021 from 62.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 1424000.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 71.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.8333.Portugal’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -38.3 by 850.0% on January 2021 from -35.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 5198.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -38.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.5.Portugal’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -25.6 by -483.0% on January 2021 from -26.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 6000.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.4833.Portugal’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 13.7 by 224.0% on January 2021 from 13.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -987.0%. Portugal’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 13.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.2833.

Portugal Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Industrial Confidence -5.6 -5.5 2 167 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Industrial New Orders -13.3 -14.8 -10 -4 -100.0 100.0 40 2022-09-30
Industrial Prices 26.1 23.2 12 24 -100.0 100.0 58 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 0.7 2.9 -76 250 -100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -11.6 -12 -3 -6 -100.0 100.0 37 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 2.7 3.8 -29 59 100.0 100.0 72 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) -0.8 2.1 -138 -109 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
industrial production 0.9 4.9 -82 -118 100.0 100.0 54 2022-09-30
industrial production mom -2.5 3 -183 -232 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
capacity utilization 82.41 82.6 -0 5 100.0 100.0 77 2022-03-31

Portugal’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -18.1 by 1312.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing sector increased by 43235.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -18.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.9917.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -44.9 by -22.0% on January 2021 from -45.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 31193.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -38.1167.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 0.3 by -11765.0% on January 2021 from -1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -10556.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.19167.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 3.8 by -2083.0% on January 2021 from 4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -48000.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.9417.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -44.6 by -45.0% on January 2021 from -44.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 32476.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.9333.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to 3.6 by 909.0% on January 2021 from 3.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -1818.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 3.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.71667.Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -5.7 by -124000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -21400.0%. Portugal’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.11667.Portugal’s industrial production decreased to 0.1 by -96.43% on October 2020 from 2.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s industrial production decreased by -101.82%. Portugal’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.26667.Portugal’s industrial production mom decreased to 0.7 by -120.59% on October 2020 from -3.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s industrial production mom decreased by -79.41%. Portugal’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.425.Portugal’s capacity utilization icnreased to 79.14 by 8.13% on May 2020 from 73.19 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s capacity utilization decreased by -3.22%. Portugal’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 79.14 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 78.6375.

Portugal Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services Confidence 12 18.5 -35 -2 -100.0 -100.0 65 2022-09-30
Services - New Orders 9.6 13.2 -27 -36 -100.0 -100.0 32 2022-09-30
Services - Prices 15.2 14.8 3 238 -100.0 100.0 92 2022-09-30
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 12.8 18.9 -32 21 -100.0 100.0 77 2022-09-30
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 13.5 23.3 -42 24 -100.0 100.0 78 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 8.2 10.7 -23 67 -100.0 100.0 80 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 10.1 9 12 94 -100.0 100.0 90 2022-09-30

Portugal’s Services sector icnreased to -25.9 by 2103.0% on January 2021 from -21.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services sector decreased by -31949.0%. Portugal’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -25.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.0167.Portugal’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -11.4 by -580000.0% on January 2021 from 0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -16746.0%. Portugal’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -11.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.24167.Portugal’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -7.7 by 6739.0% on January 2021 from -4.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -27907.0%. Portugal’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.20833.Portugal’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -31.1 by -158.0% on January 2021 from -31.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -39065.0%. Portugal’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -31.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -28.825.Portugal’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -35.1 by 669.0% on January 2021 from -32.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -53875.0%. Portugal’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -35.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.9917.Portugal’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -21.3 by 2171.0% on January 2021 from -17.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -91923.0%. Portugal’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -21.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.5917.Portugal’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -10.8 by 3500.0% on January 2021 from -8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -22558.0%. Portugal’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.28333.

Portugal Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail Confidence 1.6 3.1 -48 -62 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -4.3 -0.9 378 65 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 40.7 32.5 25 183 100.0 100.0 80 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 1.5 2.6 -42 -62 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Stock Levels -10 -9.1 10 138 -100.0 -100.0 77 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -6.8 -2.4 183 -258 -100.0 -100.0 18 2022-09-30
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -0.5 1.6 -131 -267 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-09-30
retail sales 2.1 5.4 -61 -34 -100.0 -100.0 52 2022-09-30
retail sales MoM -2 1 -300 -243 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30

Portugal’s Retail sector icnreased to -13.3 by 4778.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail sector decreased by -88235.0%. Portugal’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.1417.Portugal’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -18.1 by 4959.0% on January 2021 from -12.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -105263.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.95.Portugal’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -2.6 by 3000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -24444.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.075.Portugal’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -24.1 by 4785.0% on January 2021 from -16.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -43944.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.3917.Portugal’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 0.9 by -6667.0% on January 2021 from 2.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -7750.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.64167.Portugal’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -14.9 by 8625.0% on January 2021 from -8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -88421.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.4.Portugal’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -7.9 by 24348.0% on January 2021 from -2.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -41600.0%. Portugal’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.175.Portugal’s retail sales decreased to -0.7 by -240.0% on October 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s retail sales decreased by -119.44%. Portugal’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.74167.Portugal’s retail sales MoM decreased to 1.5 by -28.57% on October 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s retail sales MoM decreased by -46.43%. Portugal’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.258333.

Portugal Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction Confidence -4 -9 -56 -43 100.0 100.0 40 2022-05-31
Construction - Current Order Books -13 -20 -35 -28 100.0 100.0 39 2022-05-31
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 40 35 14 344 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 5 2 150 0 100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
building permits 1804 1921 -6 -4 -100.0 -100.0 23 2022-08-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 3 -6 -150 -200 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 52 51 2 4 100.0 100.0 56 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 11 14 -21 -35 -100.0 -100.0 8 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 1 1 0 -67 -100.0 -100.0 11 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 29 29 0 53 100.0 100.0 53 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 33 24 38 312 100.0 100.0 83 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 17 25 -32 -37 -100.0 -100.0 4 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 8 10 -20 0 -100.0 -100.0 78 2022-05-31

Portugal’s Construction sector icnreased to -17.0 by 4167.0% on January 2021 from -12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction sector increased by 7000.0%. Portugal’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.1667.Portugal’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -31.0 by 2400.0% on January 2021 from -25.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 5500.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -31.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.4167.Portugal’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -6.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months increased by 10000.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.0.Portugal’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to -3.0 by -40000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months increased by 20000.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.91667.Portugal’s building permits icnreased to 2142.0 by 12.92% on July 2020 from 1897.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s building permits increased by 2.88%. Portugal’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2142.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1870.08.Portugal’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -12.0 by -769.0% on January 2021 from -13.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 7143.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.25.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 48.0 by -400.0% on January 2021 from 50.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1579.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 48.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.4167.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 19.0 by 1176.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 1176.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.4167.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 3.0 by -2500.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -2500.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.91667.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 13.0 by 833.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -2778.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.9167.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 3.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 20000.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.0.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 29.0 by -333.0% on January 2021 from 30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 9333.0%. Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.1667.Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 13.0 by 3000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . Portugal’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.5833.

Portugal GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 52712.2 51919.2 2 3 100.0 100.0 62 2022-09-30
gdp growth annual 4.9 7.4 -34 113 100.0 100.0 83 2022-09-30
gdp 249.89 228.54 9 3 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
gdp growth -0.2 2.5 -108 -133 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-06-30

Portugal’s Real GDP icnreased to 47929.3 by 13.35% on July 2020 from 42283.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s Real GDP decreased by -0.95%. Portugal’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 47929.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49067.5.Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased to -5.7 by -65.24% on July 2020 from -16.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gdp growth annual decreased by -272.73%. Portugal’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.175.Portugal’s gdp decreased to 237.686 by -1.49% on January 2019 from 241.275 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gdp decreased by -1.04%. Portugal’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 237.686 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 230.571.Portugal’s gdp growth decreased to 13.3 by -195.68% on May 2020 from -13.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gdp growth increased by 1800.0%. Portugal’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0666667.

Portugal inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 10.2 9.3 10 467 100.0 100.0 82 2022-10-31
core inflation rate 6.89 6.491 6 710 100.0 100.0 93 2022-09-30
consumer price index cpi 116.99 115.555 1.24 10.14 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
Producer Price Index 133.3 134.9 -1 22 100.0 100.0 92 2022-08-31
PPI Index 16.2 19.7 -17.77 0.62 Down UP 81.67 2022-11-20

Portugal’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s inflation cpi increased by 100.0%. Portugal’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.Portugal’s core inflation rate icnreased to -0.18 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.09 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s core inflation rate decreased by -129.6%. Portugal’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of -0.18 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.00528333.Portugal’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 104.0 by -0.3% on November 2020 from 104.31 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.22%. Portugal’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 104.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.852.Portugal’s Producer Price Index decreased to 97.7 by -0.51% on September 2020 from 98.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s Producer Price Index decreased by -5.05%. Portugal’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 97.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.075.Portugal’s PPI Index icnreased to -4.7 by 2.17% on October 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s PPI Index increased by 161.11%. Portugal’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -4.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.66667.

Portugal Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -2.8 -5.7 -51 -72 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget 1030.5 -1355.7 -176 -118 100.0 100.0 7 2022-09-30
government revenues 43214 36827.2 17 21 100.0 100.0 92 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 38182.9 33801.7 13 2 100.0 100.0 48 2022-08-31

Portugal’s Government budget icnreased to -8810.0 by 34.38% on October 2020 from -6556.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s Government budget increased by 129.97%. Portugal’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -8810.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4774.1.Portugal’s government revenues icnreased to 37466.0 by 9.83% on October 2020 from 34114.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s government revenues decreased by -7.64%. Portugal’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 37466.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24613.0.Portugal’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 36025.0 by 11.81% on September 2020 from 32221.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s fiscal expenditure increased by 2.02%. Portugal’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 36025.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29093.6.

Portugal Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-29
central bank balance sheet 221742 226758 -2.21 0.69 -100.0 100.0 86.6667 2022-10-31
banks balance sheet 490174 491332 -0 4 100.0 100.0 59 2022-08-31
money supply m0 34501.8 34557.8 -0.16 3.37 -100.0 100.0 88.3333 2022-10-31
money supply m1 206001 206941 -0 11 100.0 100.0 13 2022-09-30
money supply m2 309375 310966 -1 8 100.0 100.0 38 2022-09-30

Portugal’s interest rate Portugal’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Portugal’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 138315.0 by -0.25% on November 2020 from 138665.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s central bank balance sheet increased by 25.59%. Portugal’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 138315.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 125050.0.Portugal’s banks balance sheet decreased to 443591.0 by -0.49% on August 2020 from 445770.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s banks balance sheet increased by 21.63%. Portugal’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 443591.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 405627.0.Portugal’s money supply m2 icnreased to 256651.0 by 0.79% on October 2020 from 254631.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s money supply m2 increased by 10.1%. Portugal’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 256651.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 245754.0.

Portugal Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Employment Dynamics 108.1 109.5 -1 3 -100.0 100.0 68 2022-09-30
unemployment rate 5.7 5.9 -3 -17 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-03-31
youth unemployment rate 17.9 16.7 7 -24 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-09-30
long term unemployment rate 3 2.4 25 -3 100.0 -100.0 46 2021-06-30

Portugal’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 97.6 by -403.0% on January 2021 from 101.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Portugal’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1207.0%. Portugal’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 97.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.35.Portugal’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.8 by 39.29% on May 2020 from 5.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s unemployment rate decreased by -8.24%. Portugal’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.84167.Portugal’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 23.9 by -1.65% on October 2020 from 24.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s youth unemployment rate increased by 35.03%. Portugal’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 23.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.05.Portugal’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.4 by 41.18% on May 2020 from 1.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -42.86%. Portugal’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.83333.

Portugal Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 45.5 260.85 -82.56 -127.18 UP UP 61.67 2022-11-20
current account to gdp -1.2 0.4 -400 -90 100.0 100.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 6849.96 5764.74 18.83 24.73 100.0 100.0 95 2022-09-30
imports 9548.69 9140.67 4.46 30.3 100.0 100.0 96.6667 2022-09-30
balance of trade -2698.73 -3375.93 -20.06 52.29 -100.0 -100.0 3.33333 2022-09-30

Portugal’s current account decreased to 421.54 by -479.7% on October 2020 from -111.02 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s current account increased by 187.0%. Portugal’s current account trend is down since the current value of 421.54 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -179.922.Portugal’s current account to gdp decreased to -0.1 by -200.0% on January 2019 from 0.1 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s current account to gdp decreased by -99.07%. Portugal’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.9.Portugal’s exports icnreased to 5450.3 by 9.01% on October 2020 from 4999.64 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s exports decreased by -2.38%. Portugal’s exports trend is down since the current value of 5450.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4512.36.Portugal’s imports icnreased to 6415.79 by 4.63% on October 2020 from 6131.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s imports decreased by -11.79%. Portugal’s imports trend is down since the current value of 6415.79 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5744.06.Portugal’s balance of trade decreased to -965.0 by -14.75% on October 2020 from -1132.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s balance of trade decreased by -43.19%. Portugal’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -965.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1232.34.

 

Portugal Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 29200 30199.8 -3.31 1.92 100.0 100.0 95 2022-10-31
gold reserves 382.57 382.5 0 0 100.0 -100.0 63 2020-09-30

Portugal’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 23320.6 by -11.44% on November 2020 from 26332.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 9.37%. Portugal’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 23320.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24878.3.Portugal’s gold reserves icnreased to 382.57 by 0.02% on July 2020 from 382.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s gold reserves increased by 0.02%. Portugal’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 382.57 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 382.513.Portugal’s government debt icnreased to 267011.0 by 2.74% on May 2020 from 259887.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s government debt increased by 7.13%. Portugal’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 267011.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 251253.0.Portugal’s government debt to gdp decreased to 117.2 by -3.54% on January 2019 from 121.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s government debt to gdp increased by 71.34%. Portugal’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 117.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 114.683.Portugal’s external debt decreased to 414452.0 by -0.06% on May 2020 from 414698.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s external debt increased by 1.91%. Portugal’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 414452.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 412198.0.

Portugal Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 280611 275995 2 12 100.0 100.0 46 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 127.4 135.2 -6 52 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 405306 401999 0.82 -2.45 Down Down 51.67 2022-11-20

Portugal’s government debt icnreased to 267011.0 by 2.74% on May 2020 from 259887.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s government debt increased by 7.13%. Portugal’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 267011.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 251253.0.Portugal’s government debt to gdp decreased to 117.2 by -3.54% on January 2019 from 121.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s government debt to gdp increased by 71.34%. Portugal’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 117.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 114.683.Portugal’s external debt decreased to 414452.0 by -0.06% on May 2020 from 414698.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s external debt increased by 1.91%. Portugal’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 414452.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 412198.0.

Portugal Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 1.43 1.01 42 -360 100.0 100.0 2 2022-10-31
bank lending rate 3.27 2.88 14 49 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
loan growth 1.5 1.6 -6 -71 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-08-31
loans to private sector 76604.4 76386.6 0 0 100.0 100.0 56 2022-09-30

Portugal’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.436 by 9.55% on July 2019 from -0.398 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s interbank rate increased by 36.68%. Portugal’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.436 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.337667.Portugal’s bank lending rate icnreased to 2.26 by 8.65% on October 2020 from 2.08 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s bank lending rate decreased by -13.74%. Portugal’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.26 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2575.Portugal’s loan growth icnreased to 7.8 by 8.33% on August 2020 from 7.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s loan growth increased by 550.0%. Portugal’s loan growth trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.93333.Portugal’s loans to private sector decreased to 71963.0 by -0.28% on October 2020 from 72165.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Portugal’s loans to private sector increased by 4.37%. Portugal’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 71963.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 69306.5.

Portugal macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Portugal economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Portugal Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Portugal Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Portugal’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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