RTSI Index
RTSI closed down by -2.44% to 1586.12 on 23 January 2021 and +-4.81% on a weekly basis. RTSI momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. RTSI trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. RTSI momentum exhaustion is 0.75496 indicating RTSI is oversold.RTSI RSI is 59.1601 .
RTSI Index Chart
RTSI Index Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the RTSI. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the RTSI trading signals presented in the RTSI statistics table.
| Security | Symbol | Last | Momentum | Trend | Oscillator | RSI | 1D% | 1W% | 1M% | 1Y% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTSI | RTS | 1586.12 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75496 | 59.1601 | -2.44 | -4.81 | 4.62 | -0.09932 |
RTSI closed at 1586.12 on 23 January 2021. RTSI trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. RTSI momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. RTSI momentum exhaustion is 0.75496 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating RTSI is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. RTSI RSI was last calculated at 59.1601. RTSI moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 1380.94 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 1258.02 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 1261.53 in a downtrend. RTSI annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.44%, and weekly return was last recorded at -4.81%. RTSI histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 23.2748%, RTSI alpha None, RTSI beta None and RTSI maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor RTSI statistics based on historical data since 1970.
RTSI Index News
RTSI Factors
RTSI
| Factor | Symbol | Last Value | Predicted Value | R2 | MacroVar Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia PMI vs Stocks | RU.FACT.STPMI | 1311.05 | 53.1089 | -1.3915 |
RTSI related Indicators
RTSI
| Security | Type | Symbol | Last | Momentum | Trend | Oscillator | RSI | 1D% | 1W% | 1M% | 1Y% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia ETF | Stock Index ETF | RSX | 28.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 1.34355 | 63.2073 | -2.53 | -3.17 | 5.01 | -0.01378 |
| Russia PMI vs Stocks | Stock Index vs PMI Factor | RU.FACT.STPMI | 1311.05 |
Russia Markets
| Market | Symbol | Last | Mom | Trend | Exh | RSI | 1D% | 1W% | 1M% | 1Y% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTSI | RTS | 1586.12 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75496 | 59.1601 | -2.44 | -4.81 | 4.62 | -0.09932 |
| Russia ETF | RSX | 28.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 1.34355 | 63.2073 | -2.53 | -3.17 | 5.01 | -0.01378 |
| Russian Ruble US Dollar (RUB/USD) | RUBUSD | 73.96 | -1 | 0 | 0.26279 | 45.5344 | -0.23 | 1.83 | -0.64 | 0.20409 |
| Russia 10-Year Bond Yield | RU.10Y | 7.12 | -0.5 | -0.25 | -0.52199 | 47.5003 | -1.25 | -0.28 | 0.85 | -0.06725 |
| Russia 5-Year Bond Yield | RU.5Y | 6.88 | 0 | 0.25 | -0.46596 | 47.664 | -2.69 | -0.86 | 2.99 | -0.11398 |
| Russia 2-year bond yield | RU.2Y | 6.79 | -1 | -1 | -0.94186 | 32.6087 | -0.88 | 2.57 | 15.28 | -0.22518 |
| Russia Yield Curve | RU.YC | 0.33 | 0 | 0.75 | 1.20524 | 64.77 | -8.33 | -36.54 | -71.79 | 1.38281 |
| Russia Credit Default Swaps | CDS.Russia | 85.5 | -0.5 | -0.25 | -0.52485 | 52.0676 | -0.87 | -0.58 | -11.86 | 0.4674 |
Russia Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope | ZS5Y | Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balance of trade | 10206 | 10591 | -0.0363516 | 1.72305 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.983333 | 2021-05-31 |
| bank lending rate | 6.42 | 6.03 | 0.0646766 | -0.11326 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.75 | 2021-05-31 |
| business confidence | 0.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -1.04286 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0166667 | 2021-05-31 |
| capacity utilization | 60 | 60 | 0 | 0.0344828 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.916667 | 2021-05-31 |
| capital flows | 24869 | 5992 | 3.15037 | -0.217907 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.466667 | 2021-01-01 |
| car registrations | 151964 | 148676 | 0.0221152 | 2.90432 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.983333 | 2021-04-30 |
| cash reserve ratio | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.266667 | 2019-12-31 |
| central bank balance sheet | 50061100 | 49500200 | 0.0113313 | -0.0144871 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.216667 | 2021-03-31 |
| composite pmi | 55 | 56.2 | -0.0213523 | 0.124744 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2021-06-30 |
| consumer confidence | -18 | -21 | -0.142857 | 1.25 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.7 | 2021-04-01 |
| consumer price index cpi | 647.4 | 643 | 0.00684292 | 0.0649778 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.966667 | 2021-06-30 |
| core inflation rate | 6.55 | 6.04 | 0.0844371 | 1.26644 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.933333 | 2021-06-30 |
| current account | 5500 | 3181 | 0.729016 | -0.572351 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 2020-12-31 |
| current account to gdp | 3.9 | 6.8 | -0.426471 | -0.338983 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2019-01-31 |
| deposit interest rate | 3.33 | 3.36 | -0.00892857 | -0.189781 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.45 | 2021-05-31 |
| exports | 34816 | 36863 | -0.0555299 | 0.658774 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2021-05-31 |
| external debt | 471.4 | 459.3 | 0.0263444 | -0.0290422 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 2021-04-01 |
| fiscal expenditure | 16756800 | 13734300 | 0.220069 | 0.118126 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.733333 | 2021-05-31 |
| foreign direct investment | 3886 | 2275 | 0.708132 | 0.784206 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2020-10-01 |
| foreign exchange reserves | 591529 | 605232 | -0.0226409 | 0.0398279 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2021-06-30 |
| gdp | 1483.5 | 1687.45 | -0.120863 | -0.106783 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| Real GDP | 20514.8 | 24995.5 | -0.17926 | 0.0211093 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.35 | 2021-01-01 |
| gdp growth | 1.5 | -3.2 | -1.46875 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.933333 | 2020-05-01 |
| gdp growth annual | -0.7 | -1.8 | -0.611111 | -1.36842 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.4 | 2021-01-01 |
| gold reserves | 2295.42 | 2298.53 | -0.00135304 | 0.213994 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.166667 | 2021-01-01 |
| government budget | -3.8 | 1.8 | -3.11111 | -1.92683 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2019-02-28 |
| Government budget | 625.91 | 312.07 | 1.00567 | -1.76039 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.25 | 2021-06-30 |
| government debt | 16945.2 | 14572.8 | 0.162796 | 0.465886 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2020-06-01 |
| government debt to gdp | 17.8 | 14.6 | 0.219178 | 1.73846 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| government revenues | 17950200 | 14467100 | 0.24076 | 0.167569 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.816667 | 2021-05-31 |
| housing index | 8 | 6.3 | 0.269841 | -0.65812 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2019-01-31 |
| housing starts | 5 | 6 | -0.166667 | 0.388889 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.983333 | 2021-05-31 |
| imports | 24610 | 26272 | -0.0632613 | 0.427411 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.983333 | 2021-05-31 |
| industrial production | 11.8 | 7.6 | 0.552632 | -2.22917 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2021-05-31 |
| industrial production mom | -2.1 | -4.1 | -0.487805 | -0.637931 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.266667 | 2021-05-31 |
| inflation cpi | 6.5 | 6 | 0.0833333 | 1.02492 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.85 | 2021-06-30 |
| interbank rate | 4.61 | 4.52 | -0.104854 | -0.00646552 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.433333 | 2021-03-31 |
| interest rate | 4.25 | 4.5 | -0.0555556 | -0.433333 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0166667 | 2020-07-24 |
| loans to private sector | 35632200 | 34848300 | 0.0224946 | 0.132195 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.916667 | 2021-04-30 |
| manufacturing pmi | 49.2 | 51.9 | -0.0520231 | -0.00404858 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.45 | 2021-06-30 |
| money supply m0 | 12752.3 | 12859.9 | -0.00836709 | 0.137654 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.766667 | 2021-05-31 |
| money supply m1 | 33276.7 | 33030.3 | 0.00745982 | 0.257081 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.816667 | 2021-05-31 |
| money supply m2 | 59194.1 | 59206.3 | -0.000206059 | 0.115439 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.683333 | 2021-05-31 |
| Producer Price Index | 729.7 | 705 | 0.0350355 | 0.101434 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2021-02-28 |
| PPI Index | 31.1 | 35.3 | -0.11898 | -3.20567 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2021-06-30 |
| retail sales MoM | 9.2 | -2.4 | -4.83333 | -0.0980392 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.35 | 2021-03-31 |
| retail sales | 27.2 | 35.1 | -0.225071 | -2.41667 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.15 | 2021-05-31 |
| services pmi | 56.5 | 57.5 | -0.0173913 | 0.182008 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.925 | 2021-06-30 |
| total vehicle sales | 157808 | 147378 | 0.0707704 | 0.286947 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.95 | 2021-06-30 |
| unemployment rate | 4.9 | 5.2 | -0.0576923 | -0.196721 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0166667 | 2021-05-31 |
RTSI Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: RTSI momentum, RTSI trend, RTSI oscillator, RTSI RSI and RTSI returns.
RTSI Momentum
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.MacroVarRTSI momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The RTSI momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the RTSI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. RTSI return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. RTSI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when RTSI momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
RTSI trend
RTSI trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. RTSI trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. RTSI Closing price vs RTSI moving average (MA) calculation: If RTSI is greater than RTSI MA value is +1, else -1, 2. RTSI Moving average slope calculation: if current RTSI moving average is higher than the previous MA, RTSI upward slope +1, else -1
RTSI trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. RTSI trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when RTSI trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The RTSI 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. RTSI is in an uptrend when RTSI price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the RTSI 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the RTSI oscillator and RTSI RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
RTSI oscillator
The RTSI oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current RTSI price versus RTSI 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the RTSI oscillator is:RTSI oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days RTSI simple moving average price) / (250 days RTSI price standard deviation)
RTSI oversold conditions
RTSI is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the RTSI is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the RTSI oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the RTSI oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of RTSI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RTSI RSI.
RTSI overbought conditions
RTSI is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the RTSI is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the RTSI oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the RTSI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
RTSI RSI indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.During normal trend market conditions and when RTSI is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During RTSI uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
RTSI returns
MacroVar calculates RTSI returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:RTSI returns = (RTSI Closing Price – RTSI Previous Price)/(RTSI Previous Price)