SMI Index

SMI closed down by -0.18% to 12021.6 on 23 January 2021 and +1.03% on a weekly basis. SMI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. SMI trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. SMI momentum exhaustion is 1.01835 indicating SMI is oversold.SMI RSI is 65.2033 .

SMI Index Chart

SMI Index

SMI Index Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the SMI. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the SMI trading signals presented in the SMI statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
SMI SMI 12021.6 1 1 1.01835 65.2033 -0.18 1.03 7.7 0.00816

SMI closed at 12021.6 on 23 January 2021. SMI trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. SMI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. SMI momentum exhaustion is 1.01835 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating SMI is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. SMI RSI was last calculated at 65.2033. SMI moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 10446.2 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 10313.6 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 10143.2 in an uptrend. SMI annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.18%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.03%. SMI histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 12.7093%, SMI alpha None, SMI beta None and SMI maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor SMI statistics based on historical data since 1970.

SMI Index News

SMI Factors

SMI

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Switzerland PMI vs Stocks CH.FACT.STPMI 9791.68 49.4667 -1.11924

SMI related Indicators

SMI

Security Type Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Switzerland ETF Stock Index ETF EWL 49.39 1 1 1.91653 70.4172 -0.22 0.71 5.56 0.11301
Switzerland PMI vs Stocks Stock Index vs PMI Factor CH.FACT.STPMI 9791.68

Switzerland Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
SMI SMI 12021.6 1 1 1.01835 65.2033 -0.18 1.03 7.7 0.00816
Switzerland ETF EWL 49.39 1 1 1.91653 70.4172 -0.22 0.71 5.56 0.11301
Swiss Franc US Dollar (CHF/USD) CHFUSD 0.92 -1 -1 -1.74206 40.048 0.6 0.2 1.17 -0.08205
Switzerland 10-Year Bond Yield CH.10Y -0.36 1 -1 -0.34171 36.7419 35.85 104.55 44.58 0.16949
Switzerland 5-Year Bond Yield CH.5Y -0.68 1 -1 -1.02 39.2749 11.66 34.92 21 0.12628
Switzerland 2-year bond yield CH.2Y -0.79 0 -0.75 -0.85558 45.3951 2.2 6.33 5.05 0.11806
Switzerland Yield Curve CH.YC 0.43 -1 -0.75 0.13374 40.5618 -15.35 -24.16 -14.51 -0.01556

Switzerland Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 3291 3873 -0.150271 -0.218896 1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-04-30
banks balance sheet 2272590 2268380 0.00185595 0.0258518 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-30
business confidence 133.4 143.7 -0.0716771 1.05547 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
capacity utilization 82.02 80.86 0.0143458 -0.0180773 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
capital flows 8435.62 2593.24 2.25293 2.29208 -1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-01-30
car registrations 25.85 19.85 0.302267 0.0607739 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-06-30
central bank balance sheet 1012150 1011150 0.000988973 0.101783 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
consumer confidence -7.1 -14.2 -0.5 0.314815 1.0 -1.0 0.75 2021-04-01
consumer price index cpi 101.11 101.03 0.000791844 0.00606965 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 0.3 0.2 0.5 -1.6 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-06-30
current account 15927.5 -2852.76 -6.58319 0.353919 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-03-31
current account to gdp 3.8 6.7 -0.432836 0.583333 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
deposit interest rate -0.4 -0.43 -0.0697674 0.025641 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-01-31
exports 20043 10052 0.993932 0.213271 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
external debt 2097470 2000980 0.0482214 0.146315 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 224309 221715 0.0116997 0.218521 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
foreign direct investment 1369630 1358870 0.00791834 2.44416 1.0 1.0 0 2019-12-31
foreign exchange reserves 902466 914080 -0.0127057 0.105226 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-05-31
gdp 703.082 705.141 -0.00291998 0.46502 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Real GDP 180629 180063 0.00314334 0.0413054 1.0 1.0 0.2 2020-10-01
gdp growth -0.5 0.1 -6 -1.45455 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -1.6 -7.8 -0.794872 -2.14286 -1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2020-07-01
gold reserves 1040 1040 0 0.00000961548 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2019-06-01
government budget -2.6 1.4 -2.85714 -2.36842 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 8097 8577 -0.0559636 -0.106883 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
government debt 192446 197684 -0.0264968 -0.148522 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
government debt to gdp 41 40.9 0.00244499 -0.0989011 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
government revenues 227553 223705 0.0172012 0.179324 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
housing index 179.668 176.754 0.0164862 0.0739784 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-01-01
imports 16752 16179 0.0354163 0.361221 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-30
industrial production 4.8 -1.9 -3.52632 -0.342466 1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 0.6 0.3 1 -1.46154 1.0 1.0 0.325 2021-05-31
inflation expectations 0.31 0.2 0.55 -0.581081 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-11-01
interbank rate -0.74 -0.75 -0.0133333 -0.0133333 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-02
interest rate -0.75 -0.75 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2020-02-12
loans to private sector 1595170 1598120 -0.00184592 0.0412405 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-04-30
long term unemployment rate 1.7 1.6 0.0625 0.0625 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-01
manufacturing pmi 66.7 69.9 -0.0457797 0.591885 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
money supply m0 719539 722412 -0.00397696 0.0512829 -1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-06-30
money supply m1 753156 748161 0.00667637 0.0655224 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1090810 1088290 0.00231556 0.044637 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 1153280 1151580 0.00147623 0.040641 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 102.72 102.4 0.003125 0.029568 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30
PPI Index 2.9 3.2 -0.09375 -1.82857 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-06-30
retail sales MoM -1.8 -2.9 -0.37931 -1.05696 -1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
retail sales 2.8 37.7 -0.925729 -0.64557 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-05-31
unemployment rate 2.8 3.1 -0.0967742 -0.125 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-06-30
zew economic sentiment index 51.3 72.2 -0.289474 0.0533881 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30

SMI Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: SMI momentum, SMI trend, SMI oscillator, SMI RSI and SMI returns.

SMI Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarSMI momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The SMI momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the SMI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. SMI return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. SMI Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when SMI momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

SMI trend

SMI trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. SMI trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. SMI Closing price vs SMI moving average (MA) calculation: If SMI is greater than SMI MA value is +1, else -1, 2. SMI Moving average slope calculation: if current SMI moving average is higher than the previous MA, SMI upward slope +1, else -1
SMI trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. SMI trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when SMI trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The SMI 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. SMI is in an uptrend when SMI price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the SMI 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the SMI oscillator and SMI RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

SMI oscillator

The SMI oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current SMI price versus SMI 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the SMI oscillator is:
SMI oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days SMI simple moving average price) / (250 days SMI price standard deviation)

SMI oversold conditions
SMI is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the SMI is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the SMI oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the SMI oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of SMI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the SMI RSI.
SMI overbought conditions
SMI is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the SMI is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the SMI oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the SMI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

SMI RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when SMI is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During SMI uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

SMI returns

MacroVar calculates SMI returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

SMI returns = (SMI Closing Price – SMI Previous Price)/(SMI Previous Price)
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