SMI closed down by -0.18% to 12021.6 on 23 January 2021 and +1.03% on a weekly basis. SMI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. SMI trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. SMI momentum exhaustion is 1.01835 indicating SMI is oversold.SMI RSI is 65.2033 .
SMI Index Chart
SMI Index Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the SMI. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the SMI trading signals presented in the SMI statistics table.
SMI closed at 12021.6 on 23 January 2021. SMI trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. SMI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. SMI momentum exhaustion is 1.01835 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating SMI is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. SMI RSI was last calculated at 65.2033. SMI moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 10446.2 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 10313.6 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 10143.2 in an uptrend. SMI annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.18%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.03%. SMI histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 12.7093%, SMI alpha None, SMI beta None and SMI maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor SMI statistics based on historical data since 1970.
SMI Index News
SMI related Indicators
|Swiss Franc US Dollar (CHF/USD)||CHFUSD||0.92||-1||-1||-1.74206||40.048||0.6||0.2||1.17||-0.08205|
|Switzerland 10-Year Bond Yield||CH.10Y||-0.36||1||-1||-0.34171||36.7419||35.85||104.55||44.58||0.16949|
|Switzerland 5-Year Bond Yield||CH.5Y||-0.68||1||-1||-1.02||39.2749||11.66||34.92||21||0.12628|
|Switzerland 2-year bond yield||CH.2Y||-0.79||0||-0.75||-0.85558||45.3951||2.2||6.33||5.05||0.11806|
|Switzerland Yield Curve||CH.YC||0.43||-1||-0.75||0.13374||40.5618||-15.35||-24.16||-14.51||-0.01556|
Switzerland Economic Indicators
|balance of trade||3291||3873||-0.150271||-0.218896||1.0||-1.0||0.25||2021-04-30|
|banks balance sheet||2272590||2268380||0.00185595||0.0258518||1.0||1.0||0.5||2021-04-30|
|central bank balance sheet||1012150||1011150||0.000988973||0.101783||1.0||1.0||0.466667||2021-05-31|
|consumer price index cpi||101.11||101.03||0.000791844||0.00606965||1.0||1.0||0.666667||2021-06-30|
|core inflation rate||0.3||0.2||0.5||-1.6||1.0||1.0||0.35||2021-06-30|
|current account to gdp||3.8||6.7||-0.432836||0.583333||-1.0||1.0||0||2020-01-31|
|deposit interest rate||-0.4||-0.43||-0.0697674||0.025641||-1.0||-1.0||0.15||2021-01-31|
|foreign direct investment||1369630||1358870||0.00791834||2.44416||1.0||1.0||0||2019-12-31|
|foreign exchange reserves||902466||914080||-0.0127057||0.105226||1.0||1.0||0.5||2021-05-31|
|gdp growth annual||-1.6||-7.8||-0.794872||-2.14286||-1.0||-1.0||0.116667||2020-07-01|
|government debt to gdp||41||40.9||0.00244499||-0.0989011||-1.0||-1.0||0||2019-01-31|
|loans to private sector||1595170||1598120||-0.00184592||0.0412405||1.0||1.0||0.783333||2021-04-30|
|long term unemployment rate||1.7||1.6||0.0625||0.0625||1.0||1.0||0||2020-10-01|
|money supply m0||719539||722412||-0.00397696||0.0512829||-1.0||1.0||0.466667||2021-06-30|
|money supply m1||753156||748161||0.00667637||0.0655224||1.0||1.0||0.7||2021-05-31|
|money supply m2||1090810||1088290||0.00231556||0.044637||1.0||1.0||0.816667||2021-05-31|
|money supply m3||1153280||1151580||0.00147623||0.040641||1.0||1.0||0.766667||2021-05-31|
|Producer Price Index||102.72||102.4||0.003125||0.029568||1.0||1.0||0.916667||2021-06-30|
|retail sales MoM||-1.8||-2.9||-0.37931||-1.05696||-1.0||-1.0||0.583333||2021-05-31|
|zew economic sentiment index||51.3||72.2||-0.289474||0.0533881||1.0||1.0||0.666667||2021-06-30|
SMI Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: SMI momentum, SMI trend, SMI oscillator, SMI RSI and SMI returns.
SMI MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarSMI momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The SMI momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the SMI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. SMI return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. SMI Index momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when SMI momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
SMI trendSMI trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. SMI trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. SMI Closing price vs SMI moving average (MA) calculation: If SMI is greater than SMI MA value is +1, else -1, 2. SMI Moving average slope calculation: if current SMI moving average is higher than the previous MA, SMI upward slope +1, else -1
SMI trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. SMI trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when SMI trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The SMI 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. SMI is in an uptrend when SMI price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the SMI 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the SMI oscillator and SMI RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
SMI oscillatorThe SMI oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current SMI price versus SMI 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the SMI oscillator is:
SMI oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days SMI simple moving average price) / (250 days SMI price standard deviation)
SMI oversold conditions
SMI is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the SMI is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the SMI oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the SMI oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of SMI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the SMI RSI.
SMI overbought conditions
SMI is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the SMI is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the SMI oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the SMI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
SMI RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when SMI is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During SMI uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
SMI returnsMacroVar calculates SMI returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
SMI returns = (SMI Closing Price – SMI Previous Price)/(SMI Previous Price)