British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) closed up by 1.19% to 0.73 on 23 January 2021 and +1.91% on a weekly basis. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum was last calculated at -100.0/100 indicating negative momentum. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend is -100.0/100 indicating a negative trend. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.90518 indicating British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is oversold.British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI is 37.1463 .

British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD Chart

British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD

British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD). Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trading signals presented in the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD)GBPUSD0.73-1-1-1.9051837.14631.191.911.73-0.04602

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) closed at 0.73 on 23 January 2021. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend was last calculated at -100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum was last calculated at -100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.90518 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI was last calculated at 37.1463. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 0.74237 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 0.75431 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 0.78014 in a downtrend. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 1.19%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.91%. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 9.59063%, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) alpha None, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) beta None and British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) statistics based on historical data since 1970.

British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD News

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Factors

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD)

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
UK PMI vs FXUK.FACT.FXPMI0.744649.5109-2.40869
UK ESI vs FXUK.FACT.FXESI0.774193.19880.236106

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Commitment of Traders report

Commitment of Traders report

CommercialsLarge Speculators
FactorSymbolLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLast Update
GBP Pound Sterling Futures COTCOT.GBP

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) related Indicators

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD)

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
UK POUND STERLING Implied VolatilityFX Implied VolatilityGBPUSD.IV6.71-1-0.5-0.6444836.909510.912.76-4.140.26667
EURO / UK POUND Implied VolatilityFX Implied VolatilityEURGBPIV5.57-1-0.5-0.5961736.851116.533.15-8.240.22603
UK PMI vs FXFX vs PMI FactorUK.FACT.FXPMI0.7446
UK ESI vs FXFX vs ESI FactorUK.FACT.FXESI0.7741
GBP Pound Sterling Futures COTCOTCOT.GBP

United Kingdom Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
FTSE 100FTSE6998.28-0.50.250.3561850.8123-1.31-1.070.5-0.14712
United Kingdom ETFEWU32.2410.750.9621763.0248-2.24-2.33-1.23-0.11483
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD)GBPUSD0.73-1-1-1.9051837.14631.191.911.73-0.04602
FLG UK 10Y GiltsFLG129.3710.25-0.3156351.10740.240.690.640.02662
United Kingdom 10-Year Bond YieldGB.10Y0.61-1-0.75-0.7006342.3296-3.33-22.09-23.85-0.74093
UK 5-Year Bond YieldUK.5Y0.310-0.25-0.3740854.63941.97-12.18-12.68-1.1311
UK 2-year bond yieldUK.2Y0.110.5-1-1.0606936.957729.4127.9157.14-1.27206
UK Yield CurveUK.YC0.5-0.50.751.1196150.0309-8.42-28.26-31.60.52632
United Kingdom Credit Default SwapsCDS.UK10.5-1-1-1.1100742.401310.530-4.55-0.29029

United Kingdom Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade884-1595-1.55423-0.853571.0-1.00.22021-05-31
bank lending rate1.11.10-0.266667-1.0-1.00.0252019-05-31
banks balance sheet427732042509600.00620095-0.008525531.0-1.00.1166672021-05-31
business confidence38-22-2.727271.923081.01.00.92020-10-01
capacity utilization73.964.50.145736-0.127509-1.0-1.00.052020-08-01
capital flows2799937969-0.2625830.3616871.01.00.6833332021-01-31
car registrations1861281567370.1875180.2803131.01.00.9666672021-06-30
central bank balance sheet9824399816230.0008312760.04108871.01.00.4166672021-07-14
composite pmi62.262.9-0.01112880.3039831.01.00.952021-06-30
construction pmi66.364.20.03271030.1989151.01.00.8333332021-06-30
consumer confidence-9-15-0.4-0.7352941.01.00.1833332021-05-30
consumer price index cpi111.31110.760.004965690.0251051.01.00.82021-06-30
core inflation rate2.320.150.6428571.01.00.8166672021-06-30
core Producer Price Index113.2112.80.00354610.02629191.01.00.6333332021-05-31
current account-12828-26286-0.511984-0.2826711.01.00.2166672021-01-30
current account to gdp-3.5-3.10.129032-0.1666671.01.002020-01-31
deposit interest rate0.50.500-1.0-1.002020-02-29
exports51643494800.04371460.1467051.01.00.9166672021-05-31
external debt71472907287330-0.01921690.1123421.01.00.52021-01-01
foreign direct investment11963-2769-5.32033-0.4406151.0-1.00.7333332021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves176594180463-0.0214393-0.0059051-1.0-1.00.06666672021-06-30
gdp2707.742830.81-0.0434752-0.0732028-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Real GDP496737504742-0.0158596-0.0664663-1.0-1.00.03333332021-03-01
gdp growth-1.61.3-2.23077-5-1.0-1.00.08333332021-01-01
gdp growth annual-6.1-7.3-0.164384-6.54545-1.0-1.00.03333332021-01-01
gold reserves310.29310.3-0.00003222690-1.0-1.00.5333332020-07-01
government budget-14.3-2.64.50.906667-1.0-1.002020-12-31
Government budget-19147-31285.1211611.2581.0-1.00.9833332021-02-28
government debt2195.82170.90.01146990.1337841.01.00.852021-05-31
government debt to gdp97.484.40.1540280.9959021.01.002020-12-31
government revenues6318781218-0.222007-0.01395111.0-1.00.1666672021-02-28
housing index448.96451.17-0.004898380.08791321.01.00.9833332021-06-30
housing starts46010421100.09261460.09992831.01.00.62021-01-01
imports5075951075-0.006186980.3015461.01.012021-05-31
industrial production20.627.2-0.242647-21.01.00.2333332021-05-31
industrial production mom0.8-1-1.8-1.0404-1.01.00.4333332021-05-31
inflation cpi2.52.10.1904763.166671.01.00.7833332021-06-30
interbank rate0.080.080-0.111111-1.0-1.00.052021-06-02
interest rate0.10.25-0.6-0.866667-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-19
lending rate0.351-0.65-0.533333-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-31
loans to private sector26375802655060-0.006583660.1124051.01.00.5333332021-03-31
long term unemployment rate10.90.111111-0.0909091-1.0-1.00.4252020-02-01
manufacturing pmi63.965.6-0.02591460.2754491.01.00.9666672021-06-30
money supply m09553996324-0.008149580.1161361.01.00.9166672021-06-30
money supply m122491702265810-0.007343950.1145711.01.00.7333332021-05-31
money supply m228624102878460-0.00557590.07006781.01.00.6666672021-05-31
money supply m333330903333480-0.0001169950.05844641.01.00.4333332021-05-31
Producer Price Index112.3111.90.003574620.04271121.01.00.9666672021-06-30
PPI Index4.34.4-0.0227273-3.529411.01.00.152021-06-30
retail sales MoM-1.49.2-1.15217-1.1157-1.0-1.00.4666672021-05-31
retail sales24.642.4-0.419811-2.892311.01.00.06666672021-05-31
services pmi62.462.9-0.007949130.3248411.01.00.952021-06-30
unemployment rate4.84.70.02127660.1707321.01.00.8666672021-05-31
youth unemployment rate13.513.20.02272730.0629921-1.01.00.7333332021-04-30
zew economic sentiment index60.435.80.687151-2.032481.01.00.1166672021-03-28
UK RICS House Price75590.271186-4.571431.01.00.1333332021-04-30
Construction sector-15.5-17.6-0.119318-23.1429-1.0-1.00.052019-10-01
Consumer sector-16.2-22.6-0.2831861.281691.0-1.00.82020-12-01
Manufacturing sector-16.4-24.5-0.330612-0.2545451.01.00.752020-12-01
Retail sector-16-100.60.0256411.0-1.00.8333332020-12-01
Services sector-39.4-40-0.0151.509551.0-1.00.8833332020-12-01
ESI - Economic Composite87.181.50.0687117-0.02572711.0-1.00.5833332020-12-01

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI and British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) returns.

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarBritish Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD). The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. British Pound US Dollar GBP/USD momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Closing price vs British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) moving average (MA) calculation: If British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is greater than British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) MA value is +1, else -1, 2. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Moving average slope calculation: if current British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) moving average is higher than the previous MA, British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) upward slope +1, else -1
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is in an uptrend when British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator and British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator

The British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) price versus British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator is:
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) simple moving average price) / (250 days British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) price standard deviation)

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oversold conditions
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI.
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) overbought conditions
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) returns

MacroVar calculates British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) returns = (British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Closing Price – British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Previous Price)/(British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Previous Price)
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