UK Economy

UK’s gdp growth annual decreased to -8.6 by -58.65% on July 2020 from -20.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual decreased by -577.78%. United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.625.UK’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.3 by -57.14% on November 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s inflation cpi decreased by -80.0%. United Kingdom’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.908333.UK’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.9 by 2.08% on October 2020 from 4.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s unemployment rate increased by 28.95%. United Kingdom’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.18333.

UK Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
FTSE 100 FTSE 6998.28 -0.5 0.25 0.35618 50.8123 -1.31 -1.07 0.5 -0.14712
United Kingdom ETF EWU 32.24 1 0.75 0.96217 63.0248 -2.24 -2.33 -1.23 -0.11483
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) GBPUSD 0.73 -1 -1 -1.90518 37.1463 1.19 1.91 1.73 -0.04602
FLG UK 10Y Gilts FLG 129.37 1 0.25 -0.31563 51.1074 0.24 0.69 0.64 0.02662
United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield GB.10Y 0.61 -1 -0.75 -0.70063 42.3296 -3.33 -22.09 -23.85 -0.74093
UK 5-Year Bond Yield UK.5Y 0.31 0 -0.25 -0.37408 54.6394 1.97 -12.18 -12.68 -1.1311
UK 2-year bond yield UK.2Y 0.11 0.5 -1 -1.06069 36.9577 29.41 27.91 57.14 -1.27206
UK Yield Curve UK.YC 0.5 -0.5 0.75 1.11961 50.0309 -8.42 -28.26 -31.6 0.52632
United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps CDS.UK 10.5 -1 -1 -1.11007 42.4013 10.53 0 -4.55 -0.29029

FTSE 100 closed up by 0.0% to 6460.52 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.00542% on a weekly basis. FTSE 100 momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. FTSE 100 trend is +0.25/100 indicating a positive trend. FTSE 100 momentum exhaustion is 0.35618 indicating FTSE 100 is oversold.United Kingdom ETF closed up by 0.0155% to 30.14 on 23 January 2021 and +0.02552% on a weekly basis. United Kingdom ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. United Kingdom ETF trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. United Kingdom ETF momentum exhaustion is 0.96217 indicating United Kingdom ETF is oversold.United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield closed up by 0.0% to 0.2 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.21875% on a weekly basis. United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is -0.70063 indicating United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) closed down by -0.00014% to 0.7317 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.0076% on a weekly basis. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.90518 indicating British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) is oversold.United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 17.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.02857% on a weekly basis. United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.11007 indicating United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps is oversold.FLG UK 10Y Gilts closed up by 0.00155% to 135.75 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00422% on a weekly basis. FLG UK 10Y Gilts momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. FLG UK 10Y Gilts trend is +0.25/100 indicating a positive trend. FLG UK 10Y Gilts momentum exhaustion is -0.31563 indicating FLG UK 10Y Gilts is oversold.

 

United Kingdom Macroeconomic model

MacroVar United Kingdom Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. United Kingdom’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar United Kingdom macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

United Kingdom Macro Model

UK News

UK Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -6.1 -7.3 -0.164384 -6.54545 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 2.5 2.1 0.190476 3.16667 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 4.8 4.7 0.0212766 0.170732 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01
ESI - Economic Composite 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01
manufacturing pmi 63.9 65.6 -0.0259146 0.275449 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
services pmi 62.4 62.9 -0.00794913 0.324841 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2195.8 2170.9 0.0114699 0.133784 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 97.4 84.4 0.154028 0.995902 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31
external debt 7147290 7287330 -0.0192169 0.112342 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 176594 180463 -0.0214393 -0.0059051 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 310.29 310.3 -0.0000322269 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -12828 -26286 -0.511984 -0.282671 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-01-30
current account to gdp -3.5 -3.1 0.129032 -0.166667 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.1 0.25 -0.6 -0.866667 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-19
central bank balance sheet 982439 981623 0.000831276 0.0410887 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-07-14
banks balance sheet 4277320 4250960 0.00620095 -0.00852553 1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
money supply m2 2862410 2878460 -0.0055759 0.0700678 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -19147 -3128 5.12116 11.258 1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2021-02-28
government revenues 63187 81218 -0.222007 -0.0139511 1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-02-28

UK’s gdp growth annual decreased to -8.6 by -58.65% on July 2020 from -20.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual decreased by -577.78%. United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.625.UK’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.3 by -57.14% on November 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s inflation cpi decreased by -80.0%. United Kingdom’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.908333.UK’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.9 by 2.08% on October 2020 from 4.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s unemployment rate increased by 28.95%. United Kingdom’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.18333.UK’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.5 by 3.42% on December 2020 from 55.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi increased by 21.05%. United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1917.UK’s services pmi icnreased to 49.9 by 4.83% on December 2020 from 47.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s services pmi decreased by -0.2%. United Kingdom’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 49.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.95.UK’s composite pmi icnreased to 50.7 by 3.47% on December 2020 from 49.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s composite pmi increased by 2.84%. United Kingdom’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 50.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.5167.UK’s construction pmi icnreased to 54.7 by 3.01% on November 2020 from 53.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s construction pmi increased by 20.75%. United Kingdom’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 54.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.2.UK’s business confidence decreased to -1.0 by -98.85% on July 2020 from -87.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s business confidence decreased by -120.0%. United Kingdom’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.5.UK’s consumer confidence decreased to -26.0 by -21.21% on December 2020 from -33.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s consumer confidence increased by 136.36%. United Kingdom’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.75.

UK Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 38 -22 -2.72727 1.92308 1.0 1.0 0.9 2020-10-01
ESI - Economic Composite 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01
ESI - Economic Composite 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01
manufacturing pmi 63.9 65.6 -0.0259146 0.275449 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
services pmi 62.4 62.9 -0.00794913 0.324841 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
composite pmi 62.2 62.9 -0.0111288 0.303983 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
zew economic sentiment index 60.4 35.8 0.687151 -2.03248 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-03-28
Manufacturing sector -16.4 -24.5 -0.330612 -0.254545 1.0 1.0 0.75 2020-12-01
Consumer sector -16.2 -22.6 -0.283186 1.28169 1.0 -1.0 0.8 2020-12-01
Construction sector -15.5 -17.6 -0.119318 -23.1429 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2019-10-01
Retail sector -16 -10 0.6 0.025641 1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2020-12-01
Services sector -39.4 -40 -0.015 1.50955 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2020-12-01

UK’s business confidence decreased to -1.0 by -98.85% on July 2020 from -87.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s business confidence decreased by -120.0%. United Kingdom’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.5.UK’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 78.4 by -733.0% on January 2021 from 84.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1260.0%. United Kingdom’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 78.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 79.2833.UK’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 78.4 by -733.0% on January 2021 from 84.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1260.0%. United Kingdom’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 78.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 79.2833.UK’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.5 by 3.42% on December 2020 from 55.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi increased by 21.05%. United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1917.UK’s services pmi icnreased to 49.9 by 4.83% on December 2020 from 47.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s services pmi decreased by -0.2%. United Kingdom’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 49.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.95.UK’s composite pmi icnreased to 50.7 by 3.47% on December 2020 from 49.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s composite pmi increased by 2.84%. United Kingdom’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 50.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.5167.UK’s zew economic sentiment index decreased to 16.9 by -682.76% on December 2020 from -2.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s zew economic sentiment index decreased by -144.12%. United Kingdom’s zew economic sentiment index trend is down since the current value of 16.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.775.UK’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -24.5 by 24028.0% on January 2021 from -7.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing sector increased by 4671.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -24.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -25.6917.UK’s Consumer sector icnreased to -22.6 by 1078.0% on January 2021 from -20.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer sector increased by 15682.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -22.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.7917.UK’s Construction sector decreased to -16.0 by -1111.0% on January 2021 from -18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction sector increased by 43333.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.5.UK’s Retail sector decreased to -10.0 by -4536.0% on January 2021 from -18.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail sector decreased by -2701.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.325.UK’s Services sector decreased to -40.0 by -1919.0% on January 2021 from -49.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services sector increased by 13952.0%. United Kingdom’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -40.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -37.4917.

 

UK Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -9 -15 -0.4 -0.735294 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-05-30
car registrations 186128 156737 0.187518 0.280313 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -35.5 -46.7 -0.239829 0.437247 1.0 -1.0 0.616667 2020-12-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 2.9 -3.2 -1.90625 -0.325581 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2020-12-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 35.9 33.1 0.0845921 0.0716418 -1.0 1.0 0.483333 2020-12-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 50.6 50.7 -0.00197239 1.12605 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2020-12-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -24.2 -27.4 -0.116788 2.31507 -1.0 -1.0 0.95 2020-12-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 23.1 19.4 0.190722 0.276243 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-12-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 26.5 23.3 0.137339 0.172566 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2020-12-01

UK’s consumer confidence decreased to -26.0 by -21.21% on December 2020 from -33.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s consumer confidence increased by 136.36%. United Kingdom’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.75.UK’s car registrations decreased to 113781.0 by -19.27% on November 2020 from 140945.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s car registrations decreased by -27.35%. United Kingdom’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 113781.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 137282.0.UK’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased to -46.7 by -127.0% on January 2021 from -47.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 4732.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -46.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -37.9333.UK’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -3.2 by 150000.0% on January 2021 from -0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -22308.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.125.UK’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 33.1 by -543.0% on January 2021 from 35.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -1220.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 33.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 36.675.UK’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to 50.7 by -628.0% on January 2021 from 54.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 12140.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 50.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.875.UK’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -27.4 by 745.0% on January 2021 from -25.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 25128.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.6583.UK’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to 19.4 by -628.0% on January 2021 from 20.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -396.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 19.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.25.UK’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 23.3 by -210.0% on January 2021 from 23.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -791.0%. United Kingdom’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 23.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.0833.

UK Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 63.9 65.6 -0.0259146 0.275449 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector -16.4 -24.5 -0.330612 -0.254545 1.0 1.0 0.75 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -33.5 -46.4 -0.278017 0.0244648 1.0 -1.0 0.75 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) -3.2 -4.2 -0.238095 -2.88235 1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -15.7 -15 0.0466667 -0.203046 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -51.7 -57.6 -0.102431 0.295739 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 10.3 18.1 -0.430939 -0.642361 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2020-12-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) -5.4 -8.9 -0.393258 0.148936 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2020-12-01
industrial production 20.6 27.2 -0.242647 -2 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
industrial production mom 0.8 -1 -1.8 -1.0404 -1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 73.9 64.5 0.145736 -0.127509 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2020-08-01

UK’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.5 by 3.42% on December 2020 from 55.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi increased by 21.05%. United Kingdom’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1917.UK’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -24.5 by 24028.0% on January 2021 from -7.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing sector increased by 4671.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -24.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -25.6917.UK’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -46.4 by 5570.0% on January 2021 from -29.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 5518.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -46.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -42.0417.UK’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to -4.2 by -16667.0% on January 2021 from 6.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -62500.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -4.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.65.UK’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -15.0 by 870.0% on January 2021 from -13.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 5789.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -28.6917.UK’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -57.6 by 3002.0% on January 2021 from -44.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 11736.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -57.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -48.3167.UK’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to 18.1 by 12346.0% on January 2021 from 8.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -1697.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 18.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.2583.UK’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -8.9 by -15494.0% on January 2021 from 16.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -65625.0%. United Kingdom’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -8.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.7833.UK’s industrial production decreased to -5.5 by -12.7% on October 2020 from -6.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s industrial production increased by 587.5%. United Kingdom’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.05833.UK’s industrial production mom icnreased to 1.3 by 160.0% on October 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s industrial production mom increased by 160.0%. United Kingdom’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.216667.UK’s capacity utilization icnreased to 73.9 by 14.57% on August 2020 from 64.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s capacity utilization decreased by -12.75%. United Kingdom’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 73.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 76.8167.

UK Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 62.4 62.9 -0.00794913 0.324841 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
Services sector -39.4 -40 -0.015 1.50955 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2020-12-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) -23 -26.5 -0.132075 -5.42308 1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-12-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -20 -19.7 0.0152284 -41 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-12-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -57.1 -63.5 -0.100787 0.975779 -1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -38 -30 0.266667 0.623932 -1.0 -1.0 0.7 2020-12-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -37 -38.3 -0.0339426 -93.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-12-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) -14.6 -32 -0.54375 -5.29412 1.0 -1.0 0.05 2020-12-01

UK’s services pmi icnreased to 49.9 by 4.83% on December 2020 from 47.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s services pmi decreased by -0.2%. United Kingdom’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 49.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.95.UK’s Services sector decreased to -40.0 by -1919.0% on January 2021 from -49.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services sector increased by 13952.0%. United Kingdom’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -40.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -37.4917.UK’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -26.5 by -2680.0% on January 2021 from -36.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 19444.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.9.UK’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -19.7 by 155.0% on January 2021 from -19.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -80357.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.9.UK’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -63.5 by -522.0% on January 2021 from -67.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 12049.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -63.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -52.2167.UK’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased to -30.0 by -3377.0% on January 2021 from -45.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) increased by 14590.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.3583.UK’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -38.3 by 1571.0% on January 2021 from -33.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) increased by 245333.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -38.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.1333.UK’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -32.0 by -1233.0% on January 2021 from -36.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) increased by 108519.0%. United Kingdom’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -32.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.525.

UK Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -16 -10 0.6 0.025641 1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2020-12-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -29.1 -27 0.0777778 2.09574 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2020-12-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 24.2 27.6 -0.123188 0.169082 1.0 1.0 0.65 2020-12-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -7.8 9.9 -1.78788 -0.708955 1.0 1.0 0.45 2020-12-01
Retail - Stock Levels 7.1 6.7 0.0597015 -0.725869 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2020-12-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -33 -33.2 -0.0060241 -6.59322 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2020-12-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -32.5 -27.7 0.173285 2.69318 1.0 -1.0 0.9 2020-12-01
retail sales 24.6 42.4 -0.419811 -2.89231 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM -1.4 9.2 -1.15217 -1.1157 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31

UK’s Retail sector decreased to -10.0 by -4536.0% on January 2021 from -18.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail sector decreased by -2701.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.325.UK’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -27.0 by -3478.0% on January 2021 from -41.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 182857.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.0667.UK’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 27.6 by -1737.0% on January 2021 from 33.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 1597.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 27.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.1.UK’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to 9.9 by -14670.0% on January 2021 from -21.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -22375.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.2083.UK’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 6.7 by -2209.0% on January 2021 from 8.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -7951.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.7.UK’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -33.2 by 3175.0% on January 2021 from -25.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) increased by 654000.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -33.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.075.UK’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -27.7 by -3775.0% on January 2021 from -44.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) increased by 12339.0%. United Kingdom’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.8667.UK’s retail sales decreased to 2.4 by -58.62% on November 2020 from 5.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s retail sales increased by 380.0%. United Kingdom’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.225.UK’s retail sales MoM decreased to -3.8 by -392.31% on November 2020 from 1.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s retail sales MoM increased by 322.22%. United Kingdom’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.55.

UK Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
construction pmi 66.3 64.2 0.0327103 0.198915 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-06-30
Construction sector -15.5 -17.6 -0.119318 -23.1429 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2019-10-01
Construction - Current Order Books -19.2 -23.5 -0.182979 0.352113 -1.0 -1.0 0.766667 2019-10-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 2.1 18.7 -0.887701 -0.919847 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2019-10-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months -11.9 -11.7 0.017094 -1.75796 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2019-10-01
housing starts 46010 42110 0.0926146 0.0999283 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
housing index 448.96 451.17 -0.00489838 0.0879132 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -7.7 -8.5 -0.0941176 -3.26471 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 44.8 38.7 0.157623 0.103448 1.0 1.0 0.65 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 27.6 32.8 -0.158537 -0.0580205 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 10.2 6.1 0.672131 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 11.4 5.7 1 0.0754717 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 1 -0.1 -11 -0.333333 1.0 -1.0 0.45 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 12.1 20 -0.395 0.130841 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2019-10-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 19 11.9 0.596639 0.25 1.0 1.0 0.75 2019-10-01
UK RICS House Price 75 59 0.271186 -4.57143 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-30

UK’s construction pmi icnreased to 54.7 by 3.01% on November 2020 from 53.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s construction pmi increased by 20.75%. United Kingdom’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 54.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.2.UK’s Construction sector decreased to -16.0 by -1111.0% on January 2021 from -18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction sector increased by 43333.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.5.UK’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -19.0 by -2083.0% on January 2021 from -24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 3571.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.8333.UK’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 2.0 by -8947.0% on January 2021 from 19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -9231.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.75.UK’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -17500.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.75.UK’s housing starts decreased to 15930.0 by -51.74% on April 2020 from 33010.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s housing starts decreased by -61.94%. United Kingdom’s housing starts trend is down since the current value of 15930.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 37341.7.UK’s housing index icnreased to 436.7 by 1.16% on November 2020 from 431.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s housing index increased by 7.82%. United Kingdom’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 436.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 418.763.UK’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -8.0 by -1111.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -36667.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.416667.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 45.0 by 1538.0% on January 2021 from 39.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 976.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 45.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.75.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 28.0 by -1515.0% on January 2021 from 33.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased by -345.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.5833.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 10.0 by 6667.0% on January 2021 from 6.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) increased by 4286.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.41667.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 11.0 by 8333.0% on January 2021 from 6.0 in the previous . United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.4167.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 1.0 by -13333.0% on January 2021 from -3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -8333.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.5.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 12.0 by -4000.0% on January 2021 from 20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 909.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.83333.UK’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 19.0 by 5833.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 2667.0%. United Kingdom’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.5.UK’s UK RICS House Price decreased to 66.0 by -294.0% on January 2021 from 68.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s UK RICS House Price decreased by -65000.0%. United Kingdom’s UK RICS House Price trend is down since the current value of 66.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.8333.

UK GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 496737 504742 -0.0158596 -0.0664663 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-03-01
gdp growth annual -6.1 -7.3 -0.164384 -6.54545 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
gdp 2707.74 2830.81 -0.0434752 -0.0732028 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth -1.6 1.3 -2.23077 -5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01

UK’s Real GDP icnreased to 497909.0 by 16.0% on September 2020 from 429219.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Real GDP decreased by -6.03%. United Kingdom’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 497909.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 524950.0.UK’s gdp growth annual decreased to -8.6 by -58.65% on July 2020 from -20.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual decreased by -577.78%. United Kingdom’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.625.UK’s gdp decreased to 2827.11 by -1.17% on January 2019 from 2860.67 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s gdp decreased by -8.83%. United Kingdom’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 2827.11 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2749.98.UK’s gdp growth decreased to 16.0 by -185.11% on July 2020 from -18.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s gdp growth increased by 5233.33%. United Kingdom’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.208333.

UK inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2.5 2.1 0.190476 3.16667 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 2.3 2 0.15 0.642857 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 111.31 110.76 0.00496569 0.025105 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 112.3 111.9 0.00357462 0.0427112 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
PPI Index 4.3 4.4 -0.0227273 -3.52941 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-06-30

UK’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.3 by -57.14% on November 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s inflation cpi decreased by -80.0%. United Kingdom’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.908333.UK’s core inflation rate decreased to 1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from 1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s core inflation rate decreased by -35.29%. United Kingdom’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.40833.UK’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 108.9 by -0.18% on October 2020 from 109.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.55%. United Kingdom’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 108.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 108.636.UK’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 115.1 by 0.26% on July 2020 from 114.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.95%. United Kingdom’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 115.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 115.508.UK’s PPI Index decreased to -0.8 by -42.86% on November 2020 from -1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s PPI Index decreased by -500.0%. United Kingdom’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.933333.

UK Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -14.3 -2.6 4.5 0.906667 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
Government budget -19147 -3128 5.12116 11.258 1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2021-02-28
government revenues 63187 81218 -0.222007 -0.0139511 1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-02-28

UK’s Government budget icnreased to -31571.0 by 45.67% on November 2020 from -21673.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s Government budget increased by 480.14%. United Kingdom’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -31571.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20889.8.UK’s government revenues decreased to 53879.0 by -8.42% on November 2020 from 58832.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s government revenues decreased by -6.07%. United Kingdom’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 53879.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59570.3.

UK Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.1 0.25 -0.6 -0.866667 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-19
central bank balance sheet 982439 981623 0.000831276 0.0410887 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-07-14
banks balance sheet 4277320 4250960 0.00620095 -0.00852553 1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
money supply m0 95539 96324 -0.00814958 0.116136 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30
money supply m1 2249170 2265810 -0.00734395 0.114571 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 2862410 2878460 -0.0055759 0.0700678 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 3333090 3333480 -0.000116995 0.0584464 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31

UK’s interest rate decreased to 0.1 by -60.0% on March 2020 from 0.25 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s interest rate decreased by -86.67%. United Kingdom’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.654167.UK’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 899127.0 by 0.71% on January 2021 from 892782.0 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s central bank balance sheet increased by 4.71%. United Kingdom’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 899127.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 881416.0.UK’s banks balance sheet decreased to 4256000.0 by -0.92% on October 2020 from 4295470.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s banks balance sheet increased by 7.77%. United Kingdom’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 4256000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4185710.0.UK’s money supply m2 icnreased to 2756960.0 by 1.17% on October 2020 from 2725130.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s money supply m2 increased by 12.96%. United Kingdom’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 2756960.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2614050.0.

UK Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 91 104 -0.125 -0.110459 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2019-10-01
EEI - Employment Composite 91 104 -0.125 -0.110459 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2019-10-01
unemployment rate 4.8 4.7 0.0212766 0.170732 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 13.5 13.2 0.0227273 0.0629921 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-30
long term unemployment rate 1 0.9 0.111111 -0.0909091 -1.0 -1.0 0.425 2020-02-01

UK’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 90.9 by -1251.0% on January 2021 from 103.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1097.0%. United Kingdom’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 90.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 99.0833.UK’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 90.9 by -1251.0% on January 2021 from 103.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1097.0%. United Kingdom’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 90.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 99.0833.UK’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.9 by 2.08% on October 2020 from 4.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s unemployment rate increased by 28.95%. United Kingdom’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.18333.UK’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 14.5 by 2.84% on September 2020 from 14.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s youth unemployment rate increased by 27.19%. United Kingdom’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 14.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.2667.UK’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 1.0 by 11.11% on February 2020 from 0.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -9.09%. United Kingdom’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.00833.

UK Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -12828 -26286 -0.511984 -0.282671 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-01-30
current account to gdp -3.5 -3.1 0.129032 -0.166667 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 51643 49480 0.0437146 0.146705 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-05-31
imports 50759 51075 -0.00618698 0.301546 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
balance of trade 884 -1595 -1.55423 -0.85357 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-05-31
capital flows 27999 37969 -0.262583 0.361687 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-01-31
foreign direct investment 11963 -2769 -5.32033 -0.440615 1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-01-01

UK’s current account icnreased to -15734.0 by 32.05% on July 2020 from -11915.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s current account decreased by -11.35%. United Kingdom’s current account trend is down since the current value of -15734.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17586.8.UK’s current account to gdp decreased to -3.8 by -2.56% on January 2019 from -3.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s current account to gdp increased by 5.56%. United Kingdom’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.025.UK’s exports decreased to 47986.0 by -3.57% on October 2020 from 49763.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s exports decreased by -18.07%. United Kingdom’s exports trend is down since the current value of 47986.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51350.2.UK’s imports icnreased to 49724.0 by 1.17% on October 2020 from 49150.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s imports decreased by -19.86%. United Kingdom’s imports trend is down since the current value of 49724.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49034.7.UK’s balance of trade decreased to -1738.0 by -383.52% on October 2020 from 613.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s balance of trade decreased by -49.99%. United Kingdom’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -1738.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2315.58.UK’s bank lending rate On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s bank lending rate decreased by -26.67%. United Kingdom’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.55833.UK’s capital flows icnreased to 32374.0 by 165.06% on July 2020 from 12214.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s capital flows increased by 40.95%. United Kingdom’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 32374.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19558.7.UK’s foreign direct investment decreased to -2748.0 by -696.1% on July 2020 from 461.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s foreign direct investment decreased by -106.92%. United Kingdom’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of -2748.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6605.83.

UK Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 176594 180463 -0.0214393 -0.0059051 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-30
gold reserves 310.29 310.3 -0.0000322269 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01

UK’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 183005.0 by 2.98% on November 2020 from 177702.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.2%. United Kingdom’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 183005.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 178546.0.UK’s gold reserves decreased to 310.29 by -0.0% on July 2020 from 310.3 in the previous Quarterly. United Kingdom’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 310.29 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 310.297.UK’s government debt icnreased to 2076.8 by 0.89% on October 2020 from 2058.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s government debt increased by 15.83%. United Kingdom’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2076.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1910.8.UK’s government debt to gdp decreased to 80.7 by -2.06% on January 2019 from 82.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s government debt to gdp increased by 141.62%. United Kingdom’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 80.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 70.7333.UK’s external debt decreased to 7217760.0 by -0.65% on September 2020 from 7265320.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s external debt increased by 14.56%. United Kingdom’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 7217760.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6760640.0.

UK Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2195.8 2170.9 0.0114699 0.133784 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 97.4 84.4 0.154028 0.995902 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31
external debt 7147290 7287330 -0.0192169 0.112342 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01

UK’s government debt icnreased to 2076.8 by 0.89% on October 2020 from 2058.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s government debt increased by 15.83%. United Kingdom’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 2076.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1910.8.UK’s government debt to gdp decreased to 80.7 by -2.06% on January 2019 from 82.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s government debt to gdp increased by 141.62%. United Kingdom’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 80.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 70.7333.UK’s external debt decreased to 7217760.0 by -0.65% on September 2020 from 7265320.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s external debt increased by 14.56%. United Kingdom’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 7217760.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6760640.0.

UK Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.08 0.08 0 -0.111111 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-02-29
bank lending rate 1.1 1.1 0 -0.266667 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2019-05-31
loans to private sector 2637580 2655060 -0.00658366 0.112405 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-03-31
lending rate 0.35 1 -0.65 -0.533333 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-31

UK’s interbank rate On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s interbank rate increased by 1.82%. United Kingdom’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 0.758 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.76525.UK’s deposit interest rate On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s deposit interest rate increased by 100.0%. United Kingdom’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.333333.UK’s balance of trade decreased to -1738.0 by -383.52% on October 2020 from 613.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s balance of trade decreased by -49.99%. United Kingdom’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -1738.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2315.58.UK’s bank lending rate On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s bank lending rate decreased by -26.67%. United Kingdom’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.55833.UK’s loans to private sector icnreased to 2642980.0 by 2.59% on January 2020 from 2576380.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s loans to private sector increased by 13.88%. United Kingdom’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 2642980.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2463240.0.UK’s lending rate decreased to 0.35 by -65.0% on March 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United Kingdom’s lending rate decreased by -53.33%. United Kingdom’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 0.35 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.8625.

United Kingdom macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the United Kingdom economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses United Kingdom Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and United Kingdom Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. United Kingdom’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish

Read more on how to analyze a country’s
macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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