VIX Index analysis

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) closed up by 9.68% to 17.91 on 23 January 2021 and +9.74% on a weekly basis. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 indicating negative momentum. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) trend is -25.0/100 indicating a negative trend. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) momentum exhaustion is -0.5327 indicating US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) is oversold.US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) RSI is 48.8106 .

VIX is one of the most important factors in portfolio management and trading. Examine how professional investors and traders analyze and interpret the VIX Index dynamics: VIX Index Analysis.

VIX Index Chart

VIX Index

VIX Statistics

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)VIX17.91-0.5-0.25-0.532748.81069.689.743.650.62268

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) closed at 17.91 on 23 January 2021. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) trend was last calculated at -25.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) momentum exhaustion is -0.5327 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) RSI was last calculated at 48.8106. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 22.5145 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 25.3535 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 29.3466 in an uptrend. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 9.68%, and weekly return was last recorded at 9.74%. US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 89.0097%, US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) alpha None, US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) beta None and US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) statistics based on historical data since 1970.

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) Factors

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX)

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
VIX VSTOXX SpreadVIXVSTOXX.SPREAD-3.61
VIX vs ISM PMIVIX.FACT.ISM37.1339.8982.43756
VIX vs CDX (Z-scores)VIX.FACT.CDXIG22.758.5720.073
VIX vs BofAML US HYVIX.FACT.BOAUSHY22.7515.9780.302
VIX vs VXV (Term Structure Model)VIX.FACT.VXV
VIX vs US PMIVIX.FACT.USPMI

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) Commitment of Traders report

Commitment of Traders report

CommercialsLarge Speculators
FactorSymbolLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLast Update
VIX Futures COTCOT.VIX

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) related Indicators

US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX)

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
VIX VSTOXX SpreadGlobal FactorsVIXVSTOXX.SPREAD-3.61-1-0.75-0.2861846.5397166.6261.96229.08-1.62266
VVIXFutures IndicesVVIX122.530-0.25-0.3409646.92124.147.4718.510.24746
VIX vs ISM PMIFactorsVIX.FACT.ISM37.13
VIX vs CDX (Z-scores)FactorsVIX.FACT.CDXIG22.75
VIX vs BofAML US HYFactorsVIX.FACT.BOAUSHY22.75
VIX Futures COTCOTCOT.VIX
VIX seasonalitySeasonalitySEAS.VIX14.54
VIX vs VXV (Term Structure Model)FactorsVIX.FACT.VXV
VIX vs US PMIFactorsVIX.FACT.USPMI

VIX Index Theory

Portfolio managers monitor the global economy and market conditions, to predict market volatility for the next one to three months. When the global economy or market conditions, show increased probability of high volatility, successful portfolio managers de-risk before the rest of the market and then use the remaining funds to take advantage of short-term opportunities.

The most important VIX Index metric used to monitor market expectations on future market risk is the VIX. VIX presents the expected move in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period. A VIX of 14 means the market expects an annualized expected change of 14% over the next 30 days. Hence, the S&P 500 is expected to move up or down by 4.04% over the next 30-day period (14% / √12)

Low volatility periods are characterized by VIX values less than or equal to 15. Low volatility periods have historically occurred 80% of the time.

High volatility periods are characterized by VIX values equal or higher than 20. High volatility periods have historically occurred 20% of the time.

Extremely high implied volatility means extremely high uncertainty in either direction. Oversold markets can snap back as fast as they dropped.

This means that successful portfolio managers are portfolio managers 80% of the time and day traders 20% of the time.

VIX Index analysis

MacroVar monitors current VIX levels versus VIX historical z-score values. VIX levels represent different market volatility environments:

  1. VIX less than or equal to 12: Extremely “artificially” low volatility environment, often leading to volatility surprises in the near future
  2. VIX greater than 12 and lower than 16 (1 z-score): low volatility environment, which has historically coincident with good stock market performance
  3. VIX greater than 16 and lower than 18: medium volatility environment, warning of rising volatility
  4. VIX great than 18: high volatility environment, high risk

MacroVar monitors the following factors which have historically predicted future VIX levels:

  1. VIX seasonality
  2. VIX Commitment of Traders Report
  3. VIX compared to US 2s10s yield curve
  4. VIX versus CDX (credit default swap index)
  5. VIX versus LIBOR-OIS spread
  6. VIX versus US Manufacturing PMI

You can monitor the current VIX levels and factors affecting the VIX by clicking VIX Chart.

VIX is one of the major tools used in portfolio management. VIX is combined with VIX volatility term structure and  VSTOXX which is used to monitor European equity risk. Check our guide on portfolio management to identify trading opportunities across all asset classes.

S&P 500 and Volatility

Historically VIX levels of less than 17 have coincided with risk on periods and good stock market performance. VIX levels higher than 17 have indicated high risk and poor stock market performance.

CBOE Volatility Index VIX News

United States Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500SPX4358.6900.75-2.672.32-0.362.644.090.35798
S&P 500 ETFSPY434.550.511.5549358.155-0.392.74.060.14736
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY92.750-1-0.535243.81760.371.032.36-0.07489
United States 10-Year Bond YieldUS.10Y1.29-0.50.250.1130751.7114-4.09-13.19-19.85-0.49589
US 5-year bond yieldUS.5Y0.74-0.5-0.25-0.3708346.288-7.38-16-13.02-0.78074
US 30-year bond yieldUS.30Y1.94-0.50.250.4281449.6785-1.72-8.01-15.24-0.28429
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLT148.1-0.5-0.5-0.4151343.34660.843.17.070.13041
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate BondLQD135.27-0.50.50.828646.4450.31.113.350.06823
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate BondHYG87.730.50.750.9365661.2482-0.140.080.29-0.01112
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFIEF117.13-0.5-0.5-0.0390745.38450.551.522.840.07499
SPDR Barclays High Yield BondJNK109.6410.750.977162.5206-0.120.130.58-0.00992
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIP128.70.511.3297774.31140.070.811.280.08835
US 2-year bond yieldUS.2Y0.21-1-1-0.5522342.4592-6.67-20.7527.97-0.92399
US Yield CurveUS.YC1.08011.7485855.6394-3.57-11.55-25.281.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5sUS.YC250.5300.51.3863950.8504-7.67-13.96-22.823.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10sUS.YC5100.55011.8434858.6679-0.18-9.69-27.561.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30sUS.YC5301.200.751.2176852.83292.13-2.28-16.560.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30sUS.YC10300.65-1-0.50.5272145.03874.175.01-4.260.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30sUS.YC02301.7300.751.3144852.3027-1.09-6.18-18.581.14607

United States Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade-74448-705180.05573050.575853-1.0-1.00.9666672021-03-31
bank lending rate3.253.81-0.146982-0.409091-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
building permits15981683-0.0505050.233025-1.01.00.952021-06-30
business confidence (ISM)60.661.2-0.009803920.1520911.01.00.7833332021-06-30
capacity utilization74.974.39140.006836810.1660021.01.012021-04-30
capital flows146400726381.01547-0.5879871.0-1.00.4333332021-03-31
car registrations386.98412.61-0.06211681.117281.01.012021-04-30
case shiller home price index257.1251.790.0210890.1489991.01.012021-04-30
composite pmi63.768.7-0.07278020.3298541.01.00.952021-06-30
consumer confidence80.885.5-0.05497080.114483-1.01.00.952021-07-31
consumer price index cpi270.98268.550.009048590.05324121.01.012021-06-30
continuing jobless claims37313794-0.0166052-0.279034-1.0-1.00.4833332021-04-30
core inflation rate4.53.80.1842112.751.01.012021-06-30
core pce price index116.581116.0230.004809390.0339321.01.012021-05-31
core Producer Price Index124.8123.60.009708740.05583761.01.012021-06-30
current account-188484-1809170.04182580.671417-1.0-1.00.9833332020-10-01
current account to gdp-3.1-2.20.409091-0.340426-1.01.002020-01-31
durable goods orders2.3-0.8-3.875-0.847682-1.0-1.00.5833332021-05-31
durable goods orders ex defense1.70.52.4-0.886667-1.0-1.00.5166672021-05-31
durable goods orders ex transportation0.31.7-0.823529-0.925-1.0-1.00.6166672021-05-31
exports2000301875890.06632050.08057741.01.00.9166672021-03-31
external debt21764800213583000.01903240.1347121.01.00.52021-01-01
fiscal expenditure6233595956980.0464346-0.4358231.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30
foreign direct investment53916474570.1361020.2524621.01.00.6166672021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves1418101411200.004889460.07237651.01.00.8333332021-05-31
gdp20936.621433.2-0.02316970.4230191.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP19086.418794.40.01553650.02999921.01.00.2666672021-01-01
gdp growth6.44.30.4883720.6842111.01.00.8666672020-11-01
gdp growth annual0.4-2.4-1.16667-0.8709681.0-1.00.2166672020-11-01
gold reserves8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01
government budget-14.9-4.62.239133.80645-1.0-1.00.9166672020-01-31
Government budget-226000-660000-0.657576-0.6937761.01.00.152021-04-30
government debt28529400281990000.01171670.07750821.01.00.7166672021-06-30
government debt to gdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
government revenues449000463745-0.03179550.8643931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
housing starts164315460.06274260.2906521.01.00.9166672021-06-30
imports2744782581070.06342720.1812771.01.012021-03-31
industrial production16.5115.5-2.012271.01.00.22021-04-30
industrial production mom0.72.4-0.708333-1.05512-1.01.00.5166672021-04-30
inflation cpi5.450.0881.01.00.9666672021-06-30
inflation expectations4.840.20.7910451.01.012021-06-30
interbank rate0.130.14-0.0714286-0.35-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-02
interest rate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
job offers920991930.001740450.6906551.01.00.9833332021-05-31
jobless claims385406-0.0517241-0.45927-1.0-1.00.22021-05-29
loans to private sector2487.892546.98-0.0232-0.142125-1.0-1.00.03333332021-06-30
long term unemployment rate2.472.330.06008581.839081.01.00.8666672021-06-30
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
money supply m060419006042100-0.00003310110.1732921.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m119221.718935.20.01513062.79681.01.00.952021-05-31
money supply m220370.120108.60.01300440.1398791.01.00.7833332021-05-31
mortgage rate3.093.15-0.0190476-0.034375-1.0-1.00.6333332021-07-09
nahb housing market index83820.01219511.766671.01.012021-04-30
new home sales10218460.2068560.6683011.01.012021-03-31
non manufacturing pmi62.763.7-0.01569860.51.01.012021-04-30
Producer Price Index123.8123.10.005686430.06174961.01.012021-04-30
PPI Index6.24.20.47619-5.133331.01.00.03333332021-04-30
retail sales MoM10.7-2.9-4.68966-2.273811.01.00.2333332021-03-31
retail sales51.2290.765517-3.572861.01.00.052021-04-30
retail sales ex autos-0.89-1.08889-0.947368-1.01.00.4166672021-04-30
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30
total vehicle sales18.517.70.04519771.151161.01.012021-04-30
unemployment rate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
youth unemployment rate1111.1-0.00900901-0.59854-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rate0.060.07-0.1428570.2-1.01.00.352021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread3.213.23-0.00619195-0.041791-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread1.111.12-0.00892857-0.0176991-1.0-1.00.4333332021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate2.652.530.04743082.441561.01.00.9833332021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread0.90.91-0.0109890-1.0-1.00.7916672021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread2.322.34-0.00854701-0.0491803-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit110-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1083332020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipments1.2691.1780.07724960.3528781.01.012021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment index50.955.1-0.0762250.585671.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment55.358.8-0.05952380.7389941.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index63.963.20.01107590.525061.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index80.676.80.04947920.449641.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index6764.30.04199071.106921.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity66.262.70.05582140.6146341.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index58.562.5-0.0640.762048-1.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index78.8750.05066670.1588241.01.00.82021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index50.846.50.09247310.007936511.01.00.4666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index2828.4-0.0140845-0.393939-1.0-1.00.03333332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index8889.6-0.01785711.156861.01.00.9666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index70.668.20.03519060.8481681.01.012021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index55.454.90.009107470.4025321.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index51.549.10.04887980.0729167-1.01.00.8833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.6333332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index61.155.70.09694790.316811.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders6058.60.02389080.4457831.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index40.546.8-0.134615-0.264973-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Index117.2117.5-0.002553190.3643771.01.00.9833332021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index113.3111.50.01614350.1692471.01.012021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board104.1103.80.002890170.1193551.01.012021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board104.7102.80.0184825-0.0935065-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index1342.25-0.835443-1.0-1.00.3166672021-06-04
Build Permits United States176017550.0028490.6087751.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index159.5159.10.002514140.05629141.01.00.7166672021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Index195.5194.50.005141390.1949881.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index213.8212.80.00469925-0.06310251.0-1.00.08333332021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II3.283.280-0.0352941-1.0-1.00.2333332021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread6.316.32-0.00158228-0.0322086-1.0-1.00.152021-06-04
Federal Funds Rate0.090.0900UPDown602021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index248.14244.2581.597.54UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index235.46231.7151.617.93UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts180935194048-6.7617.31UPUP91.672021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparel1351.63.333331.01.00.9833332021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products611-0.454545-1.6-1.01.00.1916672021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodation1317-0.235294-2.444441.01.00.08333332021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06
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