S&P 500 ETF SPY

S&P 500 ETF closed down by -0.39% to 434.55 on 23 January 2021 and +2.7% on a weekly basis. S&P 500 ETF momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. S&P 500 ETF trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. S&P 500 ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.55493 indicating S&P 500 ETF is oversold.S&P 500 ETF RSI is 58.155 .

S&P 500 ETF SPY Chart

S&P 500 ETF SPY

S&P 500 ETF SPY Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the S&P 500 ETF SPY ETF SPY ETF. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the S&P 500 ETF trading signals presented in the S&P 500 ETF statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500 ETFSPY434.550.511.5549358.155-0.392.74.060.14736

S&P 500 ETF closed at 434.55 on 23 January 2021. S&P 500 ETF trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. S&P 500 ETF momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. S&P 500 ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.55493 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating S&P 500 ETF is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. S&P 500 ETF RSI was last calculated at 58.155. S&P 500 ETF moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 369.314 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 356.924 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 321.575 in an uptrend. S&P 500 ETF annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.39%, and weekly return was last recorded at 2.7%. S&P 500 ETF histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 10.0894%, S&P 500 ETF alpha None, S&P 500 ETF beta None and S&P 500 ETF maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor S&P 500 ETF statistics based on historical data since 1970.

S&P 500 ETF SPY News

S&P 500 ETF Factors

S&P 500 ETF

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
US PMI vs ETFUS.FACT.ETFPMI366.0261.0515-0.285059

S&P 500 ETF related Indicators

S&P 500 ETF

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500Stock IndexSPX4358.6900.75-2.672.32-0.362.644.090.35798
US PMI vs ETFETF vs PMI FactorUS.FACT.ETFPMI366.02

United States Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500SPX4358.6900.75-2.672.32-0.362.644.090.35798
S&P 500 ETFSPY434.550.511.5549358.155-0.392.74.060.14736
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY92.750-1-0.535243.81760.371.032.36-0.07489
United States 10-Year Bond YieldUS.10Y1.29-0.50.250.1130751.7114-4.09-13.19-19.85-0.49589
US 5-year bond yieldUS.5Y0.74-0.5-0.25-0.3708346.288-7.38-16-13.02-0.78074
US 30-year bond yieldUS.30Y1.94-0.50.250.4281449.6785-1.72-8.01-15.24-0.28429
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLT148.1-0.5-0.5-0.4151343.34660.843.17.070.13041
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate BondLQD135.27-0.50.50.828646.4450.31.113.350.06823
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate BondHYG87.730.50.750.9365661.2482-0.140.080.29-0.01112
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFIEF117.13-0.5-0.5-0.0390745.38450.551.522.840.07499
SPDR Barclays High Yield BondJNK109.6410.750.977162.5206-0.120.130.58-0.00992
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIP128.70.511.3297774.31140.070.811.280.08835
US 2-year bond yieldUS.2Y0.21-1-1-0.5522342.4592-6.67-20.7527.97-0.92399
US Yield CurveUS.YC1.08011.7485855.6394-3.57-11.55-25.281.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5sUS.YC250.5300.51.3863950.8504-7.67-13.96-22.823.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10sUS.YC5100.55011.8434858.6679-0.18-9.69-27.561.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30sUS.YC5301.200.751.2176852.83292.13-2.28-16.560.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30sUS.YC10300.65-1-0.50.5272145.03874.175.01-4.260.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30sUS.YC02301.7300.751.3144852.3027-1.09-6.18-18.581.14607

United States Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade-74448-705180.05573050.575853-1.0-1.00.9666672021-03-31
bank lending rate3.253.81-0.146982-0.409091-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
building permits15981683-0.0505050.233025-1.01.00.952021-06-30
business confidence (ISM)60.661.2-0.009803920.1520911.01.00.7833332021-06-30
capacity utilization74.974.39140.006836810.1660021.01.012021-04-30
capital flows146400726381.01547-0.5879871.0-1.00.4333332021-03-31
car registrations386.98412.61-0.06211681.117281.01.012021-04-30
case shiller home price index257.1251.790.0210890.1489991.01.012021-04-30
composite pmi63.768.7-0.07278020.3298541.01.00.952021-06-30
consumer confidence80.885.5-0.05497080.114483-1.01.00.952021-07-31
consumer price index cpi270.98268.550.009048590.05324121.01.012021-06-30
continuing jobless claims37313794-0.0166052-0.279034-1.0-1.00.4833332021-04-30
core inflation rate4.53.80.1842112.751.01.012021-06-30
core pce price index116.581116.0230.004809390.0339321.01.012021-05-31
core Producer Price Index124.8123.60.009708740.05583761.01.012021-06-30
current account-188484-1809170.04182580.671417-1.0-1.00.9833332020-10-01
current account to gdp-3.1-2.20.409091-0.340426-1.01.002020-01-31
durable goods orders2.3-0.8-3.875-0.847682-1.0-1.00.5833332021-05-31
durable goods orders ex defense1.70.52.4-0.886667-1.0-1.00.5166672021-05-31
durable goods orders ex transportation0.31.7-0.823529-0.925-1.0-1.00.6166672021-05-31
exports2000301875890.06632050.08057741.01.00.9166672021-03-31
external debt21764800213583000.01903240.1347121.01.00.52021-01-01
fiscal expenditure6233595956980.0464346-0.4358231.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30
foreign direct investment53916474570.1361020.2524621.01.00.6166672021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves1418101411200.004889460.07237651.01.00.8333332021-05-31
gdp20936.621433.2-0.02316970.4230191.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP19086.418794.40.01553650.02999921.01.00.2666672021-01-01
gdp growth6.44.30.4883720.6842111.01.00.8666672020-11-01
gdp growth annual0.4-2.4-1.16667-0.8709681.0-1.00.2166672020-11-01
gold reserves8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01
government budget-14.9-4.62.239133.80645-1.0-1.00.9166672020-01-31
Government budget-226000-660000-0.657576-0.6937761.01.00.152021-04-30
government debt28529400281990000.01171670.07750821.01.00.7166672021-06-30
government debt to gdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
government revenues449000463745-0.03179550.8643931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
housing starts164315460.06274260.2906521.01.00.9166672021-06-30
imports2744782581070.06342720.1812771.01.012021-03-31
industrial production16.5115.5-2.012271.01.00.22021-04-30
industrial production mom0.72.4-0.708333-1.05512-1.01.00.5166672021-04-30
inflation cpi5.450.0881.01.00.9666672021-06-30
inflation expectations4.840.20.7910451.01.012021-06-30
interbank rate0.130.14-0.0714286-0.35-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-02
interest rate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
job offers920991930.001740450.6906551.01.00.9833332021-05-31
jobless claims385406-0.0517241-0.45927-1.0-1.00.22021-05-29
loans to private sector2487.892546.98-0.0232-0.142125-1.0-1.00.03333332021-06-30
long term unemployment rate2.472.330.06008581.839081.01.00.8666672021-06-30
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
money supply m060419006042100-0.00003310110.1732921.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m119221.718935.20.01513062.79681.01.00.952021-05-31
money supply m220370.120108.60.01300440.1398791.01.00.7833332021-05-31
mortgage rate3.093.15-0.0190476-0.034375-1.0-1.00.6333332021-07-09
nahb housing market index83820.01219511.766671.01.012021-04-30
new home sales10218460.2068560.6683011.01.012021-03-31
non manufacturing pmi62.763.7-0.01569860.51.01.012021-04-30
Producer Price Index123.8123.10.005686430.06174961.01.012021-04-30
PPI Index6.24.20.47619-5.133331.01.00.03333332021-04-30
retail sales MoM10.7-2.9-4.68966-2.273811.01.00.2333332021-03-31
retail sales51.2290.765517-3.572861.01.00.052021-04-30
retail sales ex autos-0.89-1.08889-0.947368-1.01.00.4166672021-04-30
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30
total vehicle sales18.517.70.04519771.151161.01.012021-04-30
unemployment rate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
youth unemployment rate1111.1-0.00900901-0.59854-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rate0.060.07-0.1428570.2-1.01.00.352021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread3.213.23-0.00619195-0.041791-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread1.111.12-0.00892857-0.0176991-1.0-1.00.4333332021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate2.652.530.04743082.441561.01.00.9833332021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread0.90.91-0.0109890-1.0-1.00.7916672021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread2.322.34-0.00854701-0.0491803-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit110-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1083332020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipments1.2691.1780.07724960.3528781.01.012021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment index50.955.1-0.0762250.585671.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment55.358.8-0.05952380.7389941.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index63.963.20.01107590.525061.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index80.676.80.04947920.449641.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index6764.30.04199071.106921.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity66.262.70.05582140.6146341.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index58.562.5-0.0640.762048-1.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index78.8750.05066670.1588241.01.00.82021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index50.846.50.09247310.007936511.01.00.4666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index2828.4-0.0140845-0.393939-1.0-1.00.03333332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index8889.6-0.01785711.156861.01.00.9666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index70.668.20.03519060.8481681.01.012021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index55.454.90.009107470.4025321.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index51.549.10.04887980.0729167-1.01.00.8833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.6333332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index61.155.70.09694790.316811.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders6058.60.02389080.4457831.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index40.546.8-0.134615-0.264973-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Index117.2117.5-0.002553190.3643771.01.00.9833332021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index113.3111.50.01614350.1692471.01.012021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board104.1103.80.002890170.1193551.01.012021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board104.7102.80.0184825-0.0935065-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index1342.25-0.835443-1.0-1.00.3166672021-06-04
Build Permits United States176017550.0028490.6087751.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index159.5159.10.002514140.05629141.01.00.7166672021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Index195.5194.50.005141390.1949881.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index213.8212.80.00469925-0.06310251.0-1.00.08333332021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II3.283.280-0.0352941-1.0-1.00.2333332021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread6.316.32-0.00158228-0.0322086-1.0-1.00.152021-06-04
Federal Funds Rate0.090.0900UPDown602021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index248.14244.2581.597.54UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index235.46231.7151.617.93UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts180935194048-6.7617.31UPUP91.672021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparel1351.63.333331.01.00.9833332021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products611-0.454545-1.6-1.01.00.1916672021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodation1317-0.235294-2.444441.01.00.08333332021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06

S&P 500 ETF Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: S&P 500 ETF momentum, S&P 500 ETF trend, S&P 500 ETF oscillator, S&P 500 ETF RSI and S&P 500 ETF returns.

S&P 500 ETF Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarS&P 500 ETF momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The S&P 500 ETF momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the S&P 500 ETF SPY ETF SPY ETF. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. S&P 500 ETF return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. S&P 500 ETF SPY ETF SPY momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when S&P 500 ETF momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

S&P 500 ETF trend

S&P 500 ETF trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. S&P 500 ETF trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. S&P 500 ETF Closing price vs S&P 500 ETF moving average (MA) calculation: If S&P 500 ETF is greater than S&P 500 ETF MA value is +1, else -1, 2. S&P 500 ETF Moving average slope calculation: if current S&P 500 ETF moving average is higher than the previous MA, S&P 500 ETF upward slope +1, else -1
S&P 500 ETF trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. S&P 500 ETF trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when S&P 500 ETF trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The S&P 500 ETF 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. S&P 500 ETF is in an uptrend when S&P 500 ETF price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the S&P 500 ETF 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the S&P 500 ETF oscillator and S&P 500 ETF RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

S&P 500 ETF oscillator

The S&P 500 ETF oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current S&P 500 ETF price versus S&P 500 ETF 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the S&P 500 ETF oscillator is:
S&P 500 ETF oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days S&P 500 ETF simple moving average price) / (250 days S&P 500 ETF price standard deviation)

S&P 500 ETF oversold conditions
S&P 500 ETF is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the S&P 500 ETF is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the S&P 500 ETF oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the S&P 500 ETF oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of S&P 500 ETF quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the S&P 500 ETF RSI.
S&P 500 ETF overbought conditions
S&P 500 ETF is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the S&P 500 ETF is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the S&P 500 ETF oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the S&P 500 ETF quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

S&P 500 ETF RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when S&P 500 ETF is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During S&P 500 ETF uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

S&P 500 ETF returns

MacroVar calculates S&P 500 ETF returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

S&P 500 ETF returns = (S&P 500 ETF Closing Price – S&P 500 ETF Previous Price)/(S&P 500 ETF Previous Price)
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