US Dollar Index DXY

US Dollar Index (DXY) closed up by 0.37% to 92.75 on 23 January 2021 and +1.03% on a weekly basis. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Dollar Index (DXY) trend is -100.0/100 indicating a negative trend. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum exhaustion is -0.5352 indicating US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold.US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI is 43.8176 .

US Dollar Index DXY Chart

US Dollar Index DXY

US Dollar Index DXY Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the US Dollar Index (DXY). Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading signals presented in the US Dollar Index (DXY) statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY92.750-1-0.535243.81760.371.032.36-0.07489

US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 92.75 on 23 January 2021. US Dollar Index (DXY) trend was last calculated at -100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum exhaustion is -0.5352 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI was last calculated at 43.8176. US Dollar Index (DXY) moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 90.1209 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 91.7199 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 96.6585 in a downtrend. US Dollar Index (DXY) annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 0.37%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.03%. US Dollar Index (DXY) histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 5.20534%, US Dollar Index (DXY) alpha None, US Dollar Index (DXY) beta None and US Dollar Index (DXY) maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Dollar Index (DXY) statistics based on historical data since 1970.

US Dollar Index DXY News

US Dollar Index (DXY) Factors

US Dollar Index (DXY)

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Global PMI Y/Y vs DXY Y/YDXY.FACT.GLOBALPMI91.29748.7209-1.89604
DXY Y/Y vs US PMI Y/YDXY.FACT.USPMI91.29751.0349-1.77136
US PMI vs FXUS.FACT.FXPMI91.29751.0349-1.77136

US Dollar Index (DXY) Commitment of Traders report

Commitment of Traders report

CommercialsLarge Speculators
FactorSymbolLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLong/ShortSignalZ-scoreChangeLast Update
DXY US Dollar Futures COTCOT.DXY

US Dollar Index (DXY) related Indicators

US Dollar Index (DXY)

SecurityTypeSymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Global PMI Y/Y vs DXY Y/YGlobal FactorsDXY.FACT.GLOBALPMI91.297
DXY Y/Y vs US PMI Y/YFactorsDXY.FACT.USPMI91.297
US PMI vs FXFX vs PMI FactorUS.FACT.FXPMI91.297
DXY US Dollar Futures COTCOTCOT.DXY

United States Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500SPX4358.6900.75-2.672.32-0.362.644.090.35798
S&P 500 ETFSPY434.550.511.5549358.155-0.392.74.060.14736
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY92.750-1-0.535243.81760.371.032.36-0.07489
United States 10-Year Bond YieldUS.10Y1.29-0.50.250.1130751.7114-4.09-13.19-19.85-0.49589
US 5-year bond yieldUS.5Y0.74-0.5-0.25-0.3708346.288-7.38-16-13.02-0.78074
US 30-year bond yieldUS.30Y1.94-0.50.250.4281449.6785-1.72-8.01-15.24-0.28429
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLT148.1-0.5-0.5-0.4151343.34660.843.17.070.13041
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate BondLQD135.27-0.50.50.828646.4450.31.113.350.06823
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate BondHYG87.730.50.750.9365661.2482-0.140.080.29-0.01112
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFIEF117.13-0.5-0.5-0.0390745.38450.551.522.840.07499
SPDR Barclays High Yield BondJNK109.6410.750.977162.5206-0.120.130.58-0.00992
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIP128.70.511.3297774.31140.070.811.280.08835
US 2-year bond yieldUS.2Y0.21-1-1-0.5522342.4592-6.67-20.7527.97-0.92399
US Yield CurveUS.YC1.08011.7485855.6394-3.57-11.55-25.281.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5sUS.YC250.5300.51.3863950.8504-7.67-13.96-22.823.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10sUS.YC5100.55011.8434858.6679-0.18-9.69-27.561.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30sUS.YC5301.200.751.2176852.83292.13-2.28-16.560.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30sUS.YC10300.65-1-0.50.5272145.03874.175.01-4.260.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30sUS.YC02301.7300.751.3144852.3027-1.09-6.18-18.581.14607

United States Economic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade-74448-705180.05573050.575853-1.0-1.00.9666672021-03-31
bank lending rate3.253.81-0.146982-0.409091-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
building permits15981683-0.0505050.233025-1.01.00.952021-06-30
business confidence (ISM)60.661.2-0.009803920.1520911.01.00.7833332021-06-30
capacity utilization74.974.39140.006836810.1660021.01.012021-04-30
capital flows146400726381.01547-0.5879871.0-1.00.4333332021-03-31
car registrations386.98412.61-0.06211681.117281.01.012021-04-30
case shiller home price index257.1251.790.0210890.1489991.01.012021-04-30
composite pmi63.768.7-0.07278020.3298541.01.00.952021-06-30
consumer confidence80.885.5-0.05497080.114483-1.01.00.952021-07-31
consumer price index cpi270.98268.550.009048590.05324121.01.012021-06-30
continuing jobless claims37313794-0.0166052-0.279034-1.0-1.00.4833332021-04-30
core inflation rate4.53.80.1842112.751.01.012021-06-30
core pce price index116.581116.0230.004809390.0339321.01.012021-05-31
core Producer Price Index124.8123.60.009708740.05583761.01.012021-06-30
current account-188484-1809170.04182580.671417-1.0-1.00.9833332020-10-01
current account to gdp-3.1-2.20.409091-0.340426-1.01.002020-01-31
durable goods orders2.3-0.8-3.875-0.847682-1.0-1.00.5833332021-05-31
durable goods orders ex defense1.70.52.4-0.886667-1.0-1.00.5166672021-05-31
durable goods orders ex transportation0.31.7-0.823529-0.925-1.0-1.00.6166672021-05-31
exports2000301875890.06632050.08057741.01.00.9166672021-03-31
external debt21764800213583000.01903240.1347121.01.00.52021-01-01
fiscal expenditure6233595956980.0464346-0.4358231.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30
foreign direct investment53916474570.1361020.2524621.01.00.6166672021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves1418101411200.004889460.07237651.01.00.8333332021-05-31
gdp20936.621433.2-0.02316970.4230191.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP19086.418794.40.01553650.02999921.01.00.2666672021-01-01
gdp growth6.44.30.4883720.6842111.01.00.8666672020-11-01
gdp growth annual0.4-2.4-1.16667-0.8709681.0-1.00.2166672020-11-01
gold reserves8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01
government budget-14.9-4.62.239133.80645-1.0-1.00.9166672020-01-31
Government budget-226000-660000-0.657576-0.6937761.01.00.152021-04-30
government debt28529400281990000.01171670.07750821.01.00.7166672021-06-30
government debt to gdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
government revenues449000463745-0.03179550.8643931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
housing starts164315460.06274260.2906521.01.00.9166672021-06-30
imports2744782581070.06342720.1812771.01.012021-03-31
industrial production16.5115.5-2.012271.01.00.22021-04-30
industrial production mom0.72.4-0.708333-1.05512-1.01.00.5166672021-04-30
inflation cpi5.450.0881.01.00.9666672021-06-30
inflation expectations4.840.20.7910451.01.012021-06-30
interbank rate0.130.14-0.0714286-0.35-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-02
interest rate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
job offers920991930.001740450.6906551.01.00.9833332021-05-31
jobless claims385406-0.0517241-0.45927-1.0-1.00.22021-05-29
loans to private sector2487.892546.98-0.0232-0.142125-1.0-1.00.03333332021-06-30
long term unemployment rate2.472.330.06008581.839081.01.00.8666672021-06-30
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
money supply m060419006042100-0.00003310110.1732921.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m119221.718935.20.01513062.79681.01.00.952021-05-31
money supply m220370.120108.60.01300440.1398791.01.00.7833332021-05-31
mortgage rate3.093.15-0.0190476-0.034375-1.0-1.00.6333332021-07-09
nahb housing market index83820.01219511.766671.01.012021-04-30
new home sales10218460.2068560.6683011.01.012021-03-31
non manufacturing pmi62.763.7-0.01569860.51.01.012021-04-30
Producer Price Index123.8123.10.005686430.06174961.01.012021-04-30
PPI Index6.24.20.47619-5.133331.01.00.03333332021-04-30
retail sales MoM10.7-2.9-4.68966-2.273811.01.00.2333332021-03-31
retail sales51.2290.765517-3.572861.01.00.052021-04-30
retail sales ex autos-0.89-1.08889-0.947368-1.01.00.4166672021-04-30
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30
total vehicle sales18.517.70.04519771.151161.01.012021-04-30
unemployment rate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
youth unemployment rate1111.1-0.00900901-0.59854-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rate0.060.07-0.1428570.2-1.01.00.352021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread3.213.23-0.00619195-0.041791-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread1.111.12-0.00892857-0.0176991-1.0-1.00.4333332021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate2.652.530.04743082.441561.01.00.9833332021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread0.90.91-0.0109890-1.0-1.00.7916672021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread2.322.34-0.00854701-0.0491803-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit110-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1083332020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipments1.2691.1780.07724960.3528781.01.012021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment index50.955.1-0.0762250.585671.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment55.358.8-0.05952380.7389941.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index63.963.20.01107590.525061.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index80.676.80.04947920.449641.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index6764.30.04199071.106921.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity66.262.70.05582140.6146341.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index58.562.5-0.0640.762048-1.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index78.8750.05066670.1588241.01.00.82021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index50.846.50.09247310.007936511.01.00.4666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index2828.4-0.0140845-0.393939-1.0-1.00.03333332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index8889.6-0.01785711.156861.01.00.9666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index70.668.20.03519060.8481681.01.012021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index55.454.90.009107470.4025321.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index51.549.10.04887980.0729167-1.01.00.8833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.6333332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index61.155.70.09694790.316811.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders6058.60.02389080.4457831.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index40.546.8-0.134615-0.264973-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Index117.2117.5-0.002553190.3643771.01.00.9833332021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index113.3111.50.01614350.1692471.01.012021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board104.1103.80.002890170.1193551.01.012021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board104.7102.80.0184825-0.0935065-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index1342.25-0.835443-1.0-1.00.3166672021-06-04
Build Permits United States176017550.0028490.6087751.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index159.5159.10.002514140.05629141.01.00.7166672021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Index195.5194.50.005141390.1949881.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index213.8212.80.00469925-0.06310251.0-1.00.08333332021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II3.283.280-0.0352941-1.0-1.00.2333332021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread6.316.32-0.00158228-0.0322086-1.0-1.00.152021-06-04
Federal Funds Rate0.090.0900UPDown602021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index248.14244.2581.597.54UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index235.46231.7151.617.93UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts180935194048-6.7617.31UPUP91.672021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparel1351.63.333331.01.00.9833332021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products611-0.454545-1.6-1.01.00.1916672021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodation1317-0.235294-2.444441.01.00.08333332021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06

US Dollar Index (DXY) Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum, US Dollar Index (DXY) trend, US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator, US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI and US Dollar Index (DXY) returns.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarUS Dollar Index (DXY) momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the US Dollar Index (DXY). The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Dollar Index (DXY) return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. US Dollar Index DXY momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

US Dollar Index (DXY) trend

US Dollar Index (DXY) trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. US Dollar Index (DXY) trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Dollar Index (DXY) Closing price vs US Dollar Index (DXY) moving average (MA) calculation: If US Dollar Index (DXY) is greater than US Dollar Index (DXY) MA value is +1, else -1, 2. US Dollar Index (DXY) Moving average slope calculation: if current US Dollar Index (DXY) moving average is higher than the previous MA, US Dollar Index (DXY) upward slope +1, else -1
US Dollar Index (DXY) trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. US Dollar Index (DXY) trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when US Dollar Index (DXY) trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The US Dollar Index (DXY) 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. US Dollar Index (DXY) is in an uptrend when US Dollar Index (DXY) price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the US Dollar Index (DXY) 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator and US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator

The US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current US Dollar Index (DXY) price versus US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator is:
US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days US Dollar Index (DXY) simple moving average price) / (250 days US Dollar Index (DXY) price standard deviation)

US Dollar Index (DXY) oversold conditions
US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of US Dollar Index (DXY) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI.
US Dollar Index (DXY) overbought conditions
US Dollar Index (DXY) is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the US Dollar Index (DXY) is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the US Dollar Index (DXY) quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

US Dollar Index (DXY) RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During US Dollar Index (DXY) uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

US Dollar Index (DXY) returns

MacroVar calculates US Dollar Index (DXY) returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

US Dollar Index (DXY) returns = (US Dollar Index (DXY) Closing Price – US Dollar Index (DXY) Previous Price)/(US Dollar Index (DXY) Previous Price)
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