US Yield Curve

US Yield Curve closed down by -3.57% to 1.08 on 23 January 2021 and +-11.55% on a weekly basis. US Yield Curve momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Yield Curve trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. US Yield Curve momentum exhaustion is 1.74858 indicating US Yield Curve is oversold.US Yield Curve RSI is 55.6394 .

US Yield Curve Chart

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Date Value
24/05/2022 0,27
23/05/2022 0,23
20/05/2022 0,20
19/05/2022 0,23
18/05/2022 0,22
17/05/2022 0,28
16/05/2022 0,31
13/05/2022 0,32
12/05/2022 0,28
11/05/2022 0,28

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US Yield Curve

US Yield Curve Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the US Yield Curve. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the US Yield Curve trading signals presented in the US Yield Curve statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
US Yield Curve US.YC 1.08 0 1 1.74858 55.6394 -3.57 -11.55 -25.28 1.91241

US Yield Curve closed at 1.08 on 23 January 2021. US Yield Curve trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. US Yield Curve momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. US Yield Curve momentum exhaustion is 1.74858 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Yield Curve is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Yield Curve RSI was last calculated at 55.6394. US Yield Curve moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 0.7948 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 0.71107 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 0.49496 in an uptrend. US Yield Curve annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -3.57%, and weekly return was last recorded at -11.55%. US Yield Curve histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 46.599%, US Yield Curve alpha None, US Yield Curve beta None and US Yield Curve maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Yield Curve statistics based on historical data since 1970.

US Yield Curve News

US Yield Curve Factors

US Yield Curve

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
US PMI vs Yield Curve USYC.FACT.USPMI

United States Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
S&P 500 SPX 4631.6 0.5 0.75 1.15518 65.2704 0.01226 0.0266 0.07555 0.17002
S&P 500 ETF SPY 461.55 0.5 0.75 1.13178 64.9928 0.01237 0.0266 0.07342 0.16928
US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY 98.4 0 0.75 1.83163 53.8105 -0.00696 -0.00091 0.01016 0.06771
United States 10-Year Bond Yield US.10Y 2.401 0.5 1 3.29617 65.7225 -0.02596 0.00671 0.39188 0.43437
US 5-year bond yield US.5Y 2.5 0.5 1 3.14743 70.948 -0.02534 0.04123 0.57035 1.8772
US 30-year bond yield US.30Y 2.505 0 1 2.2036 57.5522 -0.01803 -0.03765 0.19002 0.0609
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT 130.74 0 -1 -2.32803 42.1677 0.00755 0.01601 -0.07473 -0.04016
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond LQD 120.94 0 -0.75 -2.4614 46.1304 0.00842 0.00926 -0.03225 -0.06761
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond HYG 82.84 0 -0.75 -1.97536 54.1115 0.01234 0.01024 -0.00349 -0.04518
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF 106.85 -0.5 -1 -3.27991 34.5464 0.00498 -0.00196 -0.05534 -0.05518
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond JNK 103.11 0 -0.75 -2.03596 53.8091 0.01217 0.0093 -0.00358 -0.04863
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP) TIP 126.72 -0.5 0 -0.60482 51.2291 -0.00307 -0.01385 0.02417 0.01457
US 2-year bond yield US.2Y 2.375 1 1 3.35389 81.2651 0.01496 0.09195 0.76056 14.5534
US Yield Curve US.YC 1.08 0 1 1.74858 55.6394 -3.57 -11.55 -25.28 1.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5s US.YC25 0.53 0 0.5 1.38639 50.8504 -7.67 -13.96 -22.82 3.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10s US.YC510 0.55 0 1 1.84348 58.6679 -0.18 -9.69 -27.56 1.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30s US.YC530 1.2 0 0.75 1.21768 52.8329 2.13 -2.28 -16.56 0.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30s US.YC1030 0.65 -1 -0.5 0.52721 45.0387 4.17 5.01 -4.26 0.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30s US.YC0230 1.73 0 0.75 1.31448 52.3027 -1.09 -6.18 -18.58 1.14607

United States Economic Indicators

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade us.balanceoftrade -109802 -89799 22.28 53.8 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-04
bank lending rate us.banks.lendingrate 3.25 3.81 -0.146982 -0.409091 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-30
building permits us.buildingpermits 1823 1879 -2.98 8.32 UP UP 90 2022-05-23
business confidence (ISM) us.bizconfidence 55.4 57.1 -2.98 -8.73 Down Down 33.33 2022-05-04
capacity utilization us.caputilization 78.99 78.22 0.98 5.6 UP UP 90 2022-05-18
capital flows us.capitalflows 149200 160300 -6.92 5.02 UP UP 88.33 2022-05-15
car registrations us.carregistrations 278.97 244.65 14.03 -32.41 Down Down 20 2022-05-23
case shiller home price index us.caseshiller 296.35 289.73 2.28 20.25 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
composite pmi us.comppmi 53.8 56 -3.93 -21.69 Down Down 31.67 2022-05-23
consumer confidence us.us.consconfidence 59.1 65.2 -9.36 -28.71 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-15
consumer price index cpi us.cpi 288.66 287.71 0.33 8.18 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
continuing jobless claims us.contjoblessclaims 1346 1315 2.36 -17.07 Down Down 5 2022-05-26
core inflation rate us.coreinflationrate 4.5 3.8 0.184211 2.75 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
core pce price index us.corepce 116.581 116.023 0.00480939 0.033932 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
core Producer Price Index us.coreproducerprices 134.1 133.2 0.68 8.76 UP UP 100 2022-05-15
current account us.currentaccount -188484 -180917 0.0418258 0.671417 -1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2020-10-01
current account to gdp us.currentaccountgdp -3.1 -2.2 0.409091 -0.340426 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
durable goods orders us.durablegoods 0.4 0.6 -33.33 -157.14 Down UP 40 2022-05-26
durable goods orders ex defense us.durablegoodsexdef 0.3 1.2 -75 -40 Down Down 38.33 2022-05-26
durable goods orders ex transportation us.durablegoodsextransp 0.3 1.1 -72.73 -70 Down Down 40 2022-05-26
exports us.exports 241716 228824 5.63 17.71 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
external debt us.externaldebt 21764800 21358300 0.0190324 0.134712 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure us.fiscalexp 555434 507855 9.37 -16.45 UP Down 83.33 2022-05-04
foreign direct investment us.fdi 53916 47457 0.136102 0.252462 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves us.fxreserves 39252 40388 -2.81 -7.09 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-04
gdp us.gdp 20936.6 21433.2 -0.0231697 0.423019 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP us.realgdp 19731.1 19806.3 -0.38 3.74 UP UP 96.67 2022-05-26
gdp growth us.gdpgrowth -1.5 6.9 -121.74 -200 Down Down 11.67 2022-05-26
gdp growth annual us.gdpgrowthan 3.5 5.5 -36.36 75 UP UP 90.83 2022-05-26
gold reserves us.goldres 8133.46 8133.5 -0.00000491793 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2020-07-01
government budget us.govbudget -14.9 -4.6 2.23913 3.80645 -1.0 -1.0 0.916667 2020-01-31
Government budget us.govbudgetvalue 308000 -193000 -259.58 -236.54 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
government debt us.govdebt 30374200 30401000 -0.09 7.81 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
government debt to gdp us.govdebtgdp 107.6 106.9 0.00654818 0.589365 1.0 1.0 0.75 2019-02-28
government revenues us.govrev 863649 315172 174.02 96.65 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
housing starts us.housingstarts 1724 1728 -0.23 13.87 UP UP 93.33 2022-05-18
imports us.imports 351518 318624 10.32 27.02 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
industrial production us.indproduction 16.5 1 15.5 -2.01227 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-30
industrial production mom us.indproductionmm 0.7 2.4 -0.708333 -1.05512 -1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-30
inflation cpi us.inflationcpi 5.4 5 0.08 8 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
inflation expectations us.inflationexp 6.3 6.6 -4.55 85.29 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
interbank rate us.interbankrate 0.13 0.14 -0.0714286 -0.35 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-02
interest rate us.interestrate 0.25 1.25 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-15
job offers us.joboffers 11549 11344 1.81 39.35 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
jobless claims us.joblessclaims 203 202 0.5 -2.87 UP Down 21.67 2022-05-04
loans to private sector us.loanprivate 2561.28 2519.32 1.67 -0.42 UP Down 76.67 2022-05-15
long term unemployment rate us.ltunemploymentrate 2.47 2.33 0.0600858 1.83908 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-06-30
manufacturing pmi us.manpmi 57.5 59.2 -2.87 -7.41 Down Down 76.67 2022-05-23
money supply m0 us.msm0 6134500 6040000 1.56 5.06 Down UP 91.67 2022-05-04
money supply m1 us.msm1 20710.1 20694.2 0.08 10.76 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
money supply m2 us.msm2 21809.7 21811.8 -0.01 9.62 UP UP 96.67 2022-05-04
mortgage rate us.mortgrate 5.49 5.53 -0.72 35.22 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-18
nahb housing market index us.nahb 69 77 -10.39 -16.87 Down Down 44.17 2022-05-18
new home sales us.newhomesales 591 709 -16.64 -25.75 Down Down 10 2022-05-23
non manufacturing pmi us.nonmanpmi 57.1 58.3 -2.06 -8.93 Down Down 46.67 2022-05-04
Producer Price Index us.producerprices 137.79 136.65 0.83 11.3 UP UP 100 2022-05-15
PPI Index us.producerpricesch 6.2 4.2 0.47619 -5.13333 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-30
retail sales MoM us.retailsales 0.9 1.4 -35.71 0 UP UP 75 2022-05-18
retail sales us.retailsalesan 8.2 7.3 12.33 -84.64 Down Down 78.33 2022-05-18
retail sales ex autos us.retailsalesexauto -0.8 9 -1.08889 -0.947368 -1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-30
services pmi us.servpmi 53.5 55.6 -3.78 -24.01 Down Down 32.5 2022-05-23
total vehicle sales us.vehiclesales 14.3 13.3 7.52 -22.7 UP Down 20 2022-05-04
unemployment rate us.unemploymentrate 6.1 6 0.0166667 -0.585034 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
youth unemployment rate us.ytunemploymentrate 11 11.1 -0.00900901 -0.59854 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds.eff 0.06 0.07 -0.142857 0.2 -1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.hy 3.21 3.23 -0.00619195 -0.041791 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 1.11 1.12 -0.00892857 -0.0176991 -1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment us.uomconf 88.3 84.9 0.0400471 0.229805 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate us.5y5y 2.65 2.53 0.0474308 2.44156 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.master 0.9 0.91 -0.010989 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 2.32 2.34 -0.00854701 -0.0491803 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit us.fedfunds.lower 1 1 0 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.108333 2020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipments us.cassfreight 1.269 1.178 0.0772496 0.352878 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment index us.ism.man.emp 50.9 55.1 -0.076225 0.58567 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing index us.ism.man 61.2 60.7 0.00823723 0.419954 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment us.ism.serv.emp 55.3 58.8 -0.0595238 0.738994 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index us.ism.serv 72.4 62.7 0.154705 0.594714 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index us.ism.serv.neword 63.9 63.2 0.0110759 0.52506 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index us.ism.serv.prices 80.6 76.8 0.0494792 0.44964 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index us.ism.man.neworders 67 64.3 0.0419907 1.10692 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity us.ism.serv.biz 66.2 62.7 0.0558214 0.614634 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index us.ism.man.prod 58.5 62.5 -0.064 0.762048 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index us.ims.man.supdel 78.8 75 0.0506667 0.158824 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.man.inv 50.8 46.5 0.0924731 0.00793651 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index us.ism.man.cust 28 28.4 -0.0140845 -0.393939 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index us.ism.man.prices 88 89.6 -0.0178571 1.15686 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index us.ism.man.backlog 70.6 68.2 0.0351906 0.848168 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index us.ism.man.exp 55.4 54.9 0.00910747 0.402532 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.serv.inv 51.5 49.1 0.0488798 0.0729167 -1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index us.ism.serv.supdel 70.4 66.1 0.0650529 0.0507463 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index us.ism.serv.ordersback 61.1 55.7 0.0969479 0.31681 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders us.ism.serv.newexp 60 58.6 0.0238908 0.445783 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index us.ism.serv.invsent 40.5 46.8 -0.134615 -0.264973 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Index us.consconfidence 117.2 117.5 -0.00255319 0.364377 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index us.lei 113.3 111.5 0.0161435 0.169247 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board us.cei 104.1 103.8 0.00289017 0.119355 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board us.lagging 104.7 102.8 0.0184825 -0.0935065 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index us.cesi 13 4 2.25 -0.835443 -1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-06-04
Build Permits United States us.us.buildingpermits 1760 1755 0.002849 0.608775 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index us.ecri.leading 159.5 159.1 0.00251414 0.0562914 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Index us.ecri.coincident 195.5 194.5 0.00514139 0.194988 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index us.ecri.lagging 213.8 212.8 0.00469925 -0.0631025 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index us.uomconfexp 82.7 79.7 0.0376412 0.179743 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index us.uomconfcur 97.2 93 0.0451613 0.30821 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II us.baml.ushi 3.28 3.28 0 -0.0352941 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.ccc 6.31 6.32 -0.00158228 -0.0322086 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-06-04
Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds 0.09 0.09 0 0 UP Down 60 2021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index us.10city.caseshiller 248.14 244.258 1.59 7.54 UP UP 100 2021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index us.20city.caseshiller 235.46 231.715 1.61 7.93 UP UP 100 2021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts us.20city.caseshiller 180935 194048 -6.76 17.31 UP UP 91.67 2021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparel ism.breadth.apparel 13 5 1.6 3.33333 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products ism.breadth.confuter 6 11 -0.454545 -1.6 -1.0 1.0 0.191667 2021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodation nmi.breadth.accomodation 13 17 -0.235294 -2.44444 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing us.ny.empire.state.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index us.dalls.fed.services 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index us.chicago.pmi 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing us.richmond.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing us.kansas.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing us.dalls.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing us.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI) CDFI 1676.29 1671.71 0.00273971 0.0780763 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index) CBCF 1042.99 1034.34 0.00836282 0.0671503 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE CBFI 1239.03 1229.26 0.00794787 -0.141964 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF SCFI 4225.86 4196.24 0.0070587 0.263964 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF CCFI 3006.82 2930.03 0.0262079 0.408762 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06

UMacroVar Trading Signals:

MacroVar calculates the following signals: US Yield Curve momentum, US Yield Curve trend, US Yield Curve oscillator, US Yield Curve RSI, US Yield Curve returns and other US Yield Curve statistics and technical signals. Click here to explore MacroVar Models.