China Economy

China’s gdp growth annual icnreased to 4.9 by 53.12% on July 2020 from 3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s gdp growth annual decreased by -28.99%. China’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.975.China’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.5 by -200.0% on November 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s inflation cpi decreased by -111.11%. China’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.86667.China’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.2 by -1.89% on November 2020 from 5.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s unemployment rate increased by 1.96%. China’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.61667.

China Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Shanghai Composite SSEC 3064.23 -0.5 -0.75 -1.12474 55.5338 -0.00442 0.03201 -0.00671 -0.12625
China ETF FXI 25.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) CNHUSD 7.0966 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China 5-Year Bond Yield CN.5Y 2.547 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China 2-year bond yield CN.2Y 2.183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China Yield Curve CN.YC 0.615 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
China Credit Default Swaps CDS.China 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Export-Import Bank of China Credit Default Swaps CDS.Export-Import-Bank-of-China 123.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Shanghai Composite closed up by 0.00861% to 3502.96 on 23 January 2021 and +0.03133% on a weekly basis. Shanghai Composite momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Shanghai Composite trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Shanghai Composite momentum exhaustion is 1.64904 indicating Shanghai Composite is oversold.China ETF closed up by 0.02721% to 47.56 on 23 January 2021 and +0.05877% on a weekly basis. China ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. China ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. China ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.71797 indicating China ETF is oversold.China 10-Year Bond Yield closed down by -0.00188% to 3.19 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.02625% on a weekly basis. China 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. China 10-Year Bond Yield trend is +0.25/100 indicating a positive trend. China 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is 0.9185 indicating China 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) closed up by 0.00045% to 6.505 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.00219% on a weekly basis. Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) momentum exhaustion is -1.99133 indicating Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) is oversold.China Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 28.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.00885% on a weekly basis. China Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. China Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. China Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.41448 indicating China Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

China Macroeconomic model

MacroVar China Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. China’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

China Macro Model

 

China News

China Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 3.9 0.4 875 -35 -100.0 -100.0 14 2022-09-30
inflation cpi 2.1 2.8 -25 40 100.0 100.0 51.6667 2022-10-31
unemployment rate 5.5 5.3 4 8 100.0 100.0 63 2022-08-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
China 49.2 48.1 2 -3 -100.0 -100.0 26 2022-10-31
non manufacturing pmi 48.7 50.6 -4 -7 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
services pmi 48.4 49.3 -2 -10 -100.0 -100.0 16 2022-10-31
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 71.5 68.1 5 108 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 27466 24007.9 14 541 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
foreign exchange reserves 3052000 3028960 0.76 -5.16 -100.0 -100.0 3.33333 2022-10-31
gold reserves 1948.31 1948.31 0 6 100.0 100.0 52 2021-03-31
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 1440 774.984 86 370 100.0 100.0 99 2022-09-30
current account to gdp 1.8 1.9 -5 -63 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 3.65 3.65 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-11
central bank balance sheet 398871 397402 0.37 1 UP UP 96.67 2022-11-20
banks balance sheet 615.2 2470 -75.09 -25.54 -100.0 -100.0 3.33333 2022-10-31
money supply m2 261290 262660 -0.52 11.85 100.0 100.0 98.3333 2022-10-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -96.9 -881.3 -89 -43.03 UP UP 68.33 2022-11-25
government revenues 20246 15108 34.01 45.32 UP UP 86.67 2022-11-20
fiscal expenditure 15945 25212 -36.76 -33.35 Down Down 25 2022-11-20

China’s gdp growth annual icnreased to 4.9 by 53.12% on July 2020 from 3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s gdp growth annual decreased by -28.99%. China’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.975.China’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.5 by -200.0% on November 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s inflation cpi decreased by -111.11%. China’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.86667.China’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.2 by -1.89% on November 2020 from 5.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s unemployment rate increased by 1.96%. China’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.61667.China’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 53.0 by -3.46% on December 2020 from 54.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s manufacturing pmi increased by 2.91%. China’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 53.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1.China’s services pmi icnreased to 57.8 by 1.76% on November 2020 from 56.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s services pmi increased by 8.04%. China’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.7583.China’s composite pmi icnreased to 57.5 by 3.23% on November 2020 from 55.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s composite pmi increased by 8.08%. China’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.15.China’s business confidence decreased to 51.9 by -0.38% on December 2020 from 52.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s business confidence increased by 3.39%. China’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9167.China’s consumer confidence icnreased to 124.0 by 1.89% on November 2020 from 121.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s consumer confidence decreased by -0.48%. China’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 124.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 119.892.

 

China Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 49.2 50.1 -2 -0 -100.0 -100.0 62 2022-10-31
China 49.2 48.1 2 -3 -100.0 -100.0 26 2022-10-31
services pmi 48.4 49.3 -2 -10 -100.0 -100.0 16 2022-10-31
composite pmi 48.5 53 -8 -6 -100.0 -100.0 19 2022-09-30

China’s business confidence decreased to 51.9 by -0.38% on December 2020 from 52.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s business confidence increased by 3.39%. China’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9167.China’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 53.0 by -3.46% on December 2020 from 54.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s manufacturing pmi increased by 2.91%. China’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 53.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1.China’s services pmi icnreased to 57.8 by 1.76% on November 2020 from 56.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s services pmi increased by 8.04%. China’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.7583.China’s composite pmi icnreased to 57.5 by 3.23% on November 2020 from 55.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s composite pmi increased by 8.08%. China’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.15.

China Leading Economic Indicators

Tankan Indicators Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
China Leading Economic Conference Board Index 165.1 165.6 -0 0 -100.0 100.0 23 2022-08-31
LEI - Consumer Expectation Index 89.3 91.2 -2 -25 -100.0 -100.0 7 2022-08-31
LEI - New Export Orders 48.5 47.9 1 3 100.0 100.0 75 2022-08-31

China’s China Leading Economic Conference Board Index icnreased to 160.6 by 120.0% on January 2021 from 158.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis China’s China Leading Economic Conference Board Index increased by 566.0%. China’s China Leading Economic Conference Board Index trend is down since the current value of 160.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 153.692.China’s LEI – Consumer Expectation Index icnreased to 125.3 by 8.0% on January 2021 from 125.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis China’s LEI – Consumer Expectation Index decreased by -279.0%. China’s LEI – Consumer Expectation Index trend is down since the current value of 125.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 123.025.China’s LEI – New Export Orders decreased to 50.83 by -99.0% on January 2021 from 51.34 in the previous . On a year on year basis China’s LEI – New Export Orders increased by 433.0%. China’s LEI – New Export Orders trend is down since the current value of 50.83 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.76.

 

China Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
total vehicle sales 2510000 2610320 -3.84 7.73 100.0 100.0 71.6667 2022-10-31
consumer confidence 87 87.9 -1 -26 -100.0 -100.0 7 2022-08-31
car registrations 2231000 2332000 -4.33 11.16 100.0 100.0 86.6667 2022-10-31

China’s total vehicle sales icnreased to 2770000.0 by 7.66% on November 2020 from 2573000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s total vehicle sales increased by 12.74%. China’s total vehicle sales trend is down since the current value of 2770000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2091270.0.China’s consumer confidence icnreased to 124.0 by 1.89% on November 2020 from 121.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s consumer confidence decreased by -0.48%. China’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 124.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 119.892.China’s car registrations icnreased to 2297000.0 by 8.86% on November 2020 from 2110000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s car registrations increased by 11.67%. China’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 2297000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1665290.0.

China Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
China 49.2 48.1 2 -3 -100.0 -100.0 26 2022-10-31
industrial production 5 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 2022-10-31
industrial production mom 0.33 0.84 -60.71 -15.38 Down Down 13.33 2022-11-17
capacity utilization 75.6 75.1 1 -1 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30

China’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 53.0 by -3.46% on December 2020 from 54.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s manufacturing pmi increased by 2.91%. China’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 53.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1.China’s industrial production icnreased to 7.0 by 1.45% on October 2020 from 6.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s industrial production increased by 48.94%. China’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.86667.China’s industrial production mom icnreased to 1.03 by 32.05% on November 2020 from 0.78 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s industrial production mom increased by 19.77%. China’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.03 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.1825.China’s capacity utilization icnreased to 76.7 by 3.09% on May 2020 from 74.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s capacity utilization decreased by -0.13%. China’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 76.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.7.


China Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 48.4 49.3 -2 -10 -100.0 -100.0 16 2022-10-31

China’s services pmi icnreased to 57.8 by 1.76% on November 2020 from 56.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s services pmi increased by 8.04%. China’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.7583.

China Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
retail sales -0.5 2.5 -120 -111.36 -100.0 -100.0 18.3333 2022-10-31
retail sales MoM -0.68 0.14 -585.71 -247.83 Down Down 5 2022-11-17

China’s retail sales icnreased to 5.0 by 16.28% on November 2020 from 4.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s retail sales decreased by -37.5%. China’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.075.China’s retail sales MoM icnreased to 1.31 by 81.94% on November 2020 from 0.72 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s retail sales MoM increased by 59.76%. China’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.31 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.315833.


China Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
housing index -1.5 -1.3 15 -139 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30

China’s housing index decreased to 4.0 by -6.98% on November 2020 from 4.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s housing index decreased by -48.72%. China’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.30833.


China GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 813830 525197 55 14 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30
gdp growth annual 3.9 0.4 875 -35 -100.0 -100.0 14 2022-09-30
gdp 17734.1 14687.7 21 248 100.0 100.0 0 2021-12-31
gdp growth 3.9 -2.6 -250 225 100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30

China’s Real GDP icnreased to 722786.0 by 58.29% on May 2020 from 456614.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s Real GDP increased by 21.15%. China’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 722786.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 567345.0.China’s gdp growth annual icnreased to 4.9 by 53.12% on July 2020 from 3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s gdp growth annual decreased by -28.99%. China’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.975.China’s gdp icnreased to 14342.9 by 3.22% on January 2019 from 13894.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s gdp increased by 303.99%. China’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 14342.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9562.99.China’s gdp growth decreased to 2.7 by -76.92% on July 2020 from 11.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s gdp growth increased by 68.75%. China’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.50833.

 

China inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2.1 2.8 -25 40 100.0 100.0 51.6667 2022-10-31
core inflation rate 1.1 1.2 -8 -467 100.0 100.0 2 2022-02-28
consumer price index cpi 103.5 103.4 0 0 0 0 0 2022-09-30
Producer Price Index 111.6 111.4 0.18 -1.33 -100.0 -100.0 85.8333 2022-10-31
PPI Index -1.3 0.9 -244.44 -109.63 -100.0 -100.0 20 2022-10-31

China’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.5 by -200.0% on November 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s inflation cpi decreased by -111.11%. China’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.86667.China’s core inflation rate decreased to 0.5 by -44.44% on July 2020 from 0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s core inflation rate decreased by -68.75%. China’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.21667.China’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 110.7 by -0.63% on November 2020 from 111.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.45%. China’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 110.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 111.533.China’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 106.6 by 0.57% on October 2020 from 106.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s Producer Price Index decreased by -1.57%. China’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 106.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.525.China’s PPI Index decreased to -1.5 by -28.57% on October 2020 from -2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s PPI Index decreased by -6.25%. China’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.79167.

China Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -3.1 -3.7 -16.22 10.71 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget -96.9 -881.3 -89 -43.03 UP UP 68.33 2022-11-25
government revenues 20246 15108 34.01 45.32 UP UP 86.67 2022-11-20
fiscal expenditure 15945 25212 -36.76 -33.35 Down Down 25 2022-11-20

China’s Government budget decreased to 570.7 by -322.76% on November 2020 from -256.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s Government budget decreased by -373.59%. China’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of 570.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -247.492.China’s government revenues decreased to 10956.0 by -37.51% on November 2020 from 17531.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s government revenues decreased by -35.65%. China’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 10956.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15183.4.China’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 18407.0 by 29.14% on November 2020 from 14254.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s fiscal expenditure increased by 53.71%. China’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 18407.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21344.4.

China Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 3.65 3.65 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-11
central bank balance sheet 398871 397402 0.37 1 UP UP 96.67 2022-11-20
banks balance sheet 615.2 2470 -75.09 -25.54 -100.0 -100.0 3.33333 2022-10-31
money supply m0 9840 9867.21 -0.28 14.3 100.0 100.0 96.6667 2022-10-31
money supply m1 66210 66453.5 -0.37 5.75 100.0 100.0 95 2022-10-31
money supply m2 261290 262660 -0.52 11.85 100.0 100.0 98.3333 2022-10-31

China’s interest rate decreased to 3.85 by -4.94% on April 2020 from 4.05 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis China’s interest rate decreased by -9.41%. China’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 3.85 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.16667.China’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 381989.0 by 2.74% on November 2020 from 371813.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s central bank balance sheet increased by 5.21%. China’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 381989.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 367890.0.China’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 1430.0 by 107.31% on November 2020 from 689.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s banks balance sheet increased by 2.88%. China’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1430.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1626.52.China’s money supply m2 icnreased to 217200.0 by 1.04% on November 2020 from 214970.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s money supply m2 increased by 10.74%. China’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 217200.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 209984.0.

 

China Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 5.5 5.3 4 8 100.0 100.0 63 2022-08-31

China’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.2 by -1.89% on November 2020 from 5.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s unemployment rate increased by 1.96%. China’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.61667.

China Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 1440 774.984 86 370 100.0 100.0 99 2022-09-30
current account to gdp 1.8 1.9 -5 -63 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
exports 298.37 322.76 -7.56 -0.45 -100.0 -100.0 18.3333 2022-10-31
imports 213.22 238.01 -10.42 -0.98 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-10-31
balance of trade 84.74 79.39 7 26 100.0 100.0 72 2022-09-30
capital flows -1440 -319.79 350 1641 -100.0 -100.0 100 2022-09-30
foreign direct investment 1683.4 1553 8.4 18.54 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-20

China’s current account decreased to 942.0 by -14.49% on July 2020 from 1101.68 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s current account increased by 105.23%. China’s current account trend is down since the current value of 942.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 340.586.China’s current account to gdp icnreased to 1.0 by 150.0% on January 2019 from 0.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s current account to gdp decreased by -90.1%. China’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.83333.China’s exports icnreased to 2680.74 by 13.02% on November 2020 from 2371.83 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s exports increased by 21.06%. China’s exports trend is down since the current value of 2680.74 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2129.41.China’s imports icnreased to 1926.49 by 7.78% on November 2020 from 1787.39 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s imports increased by 4.55%. China’s imports trend is down since the current value of 1926.49 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1706.77.China’s balance of trade icnreased to 754.25 by 29.06% on November 2020 from 584.43 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s balance of trade increased by 102.89%. China’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 754.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 422.641.China’s bank lending rate decreased to 2.95 by -6.35% on April 2020 from 3.15 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s bank lending rate decreased by -10.61%. China’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.95 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.24167.China’s capital flows icnreased to -942.0 by 173.22% on July 2020 from -344.782 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s capital flows decreased by -761.77%. China’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of -942.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.1281.China’s foreign direct investment icnreased to 1372.0 by 19.21% on November 2020 from 1150.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s foreign direct investment increased by 10.29%. China’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 1372.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 735.017.

China Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 3052000 3028960 0.76 -5.16 -100.0 -100.0 3.33333 2022-10-31
gold reserves 1948.31 1948.31 0 6 100.0 100.0 52 2021-03-31

China’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 3178000.0 by 1.6% on November 2020 from 3127980.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 2.66%. China’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 3178000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3121990.0.China’s gold reserves icnreased to 1948.31 by 0.0% on July 2020 from 1948.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis China’s gold reserves increased by 5.74%. China’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 1948.31 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1897.05.China’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 52.6 by 4.16% on January 2019 from 50.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s government debt to gdp increased by 81.38%. China’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 52.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 39.6.China’s external debt icnreased to 20573.0 by 4.69% on January 2019 from 19652.1 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s external debt increased by 428.57%. China’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 20573.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11649.6.

China Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 71.5 68.1 5 108 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 27466 24007.9 14 541 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31

China’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 52.6 by 4.16% on January 2019 from 50.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s government debt to gdp increased by 81.38%. China’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 52.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 39.6.China’s external debt icnreased to 20573.0 by 4.69% on January 2019 from 19652.1 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis China’s external debt increased by 428.57%. China’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 20573.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11649.6.

China Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 2.28 3.03 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-15
deposit interest rate 0.35 0.35 0 0 -100.0 -100.0 51 2022-10-31
bank lending rate 2.75 2.75 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-15
loan growth 11.4 11.5 -1 -12 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-02-28
loans to private sector 9079 35271 -74.26 -43.87 -100.0 -100.0 6.66667 2022-10-31
cash reserve ratio 11.375 11.5 -1 -9 -100.0 -100.0 31 2022-04-30
reverse repo rate 2.1 2.1 0 -5 -100.0 -100.0 27 2022-02-28

China’s interbank rate On a year on year basis China’s interbank rate increased by 5.31%. China’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 2.979 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.0325.China’s deposit interest rate China’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.35 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.35.China’s balance of trade icnreased to 754.25 by 29.06% on November 2020 from 584.43 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s balance of trade increased by 102.89%. China’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 754.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 422.641.China’s bank lending rate decreased to 2.95 by -6.35% on April 2020 from 3.15 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s bank lending rate decreased by -10.61%. China’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.95 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.24167.China’s loan growth decreased to 12.8 by -0.78% on November 2020 from 12.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s loan growth increased by 3.23%. China’s loan growth trend is down since the current value of 12.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.7833.China’s loans to private sector icnreased to 21300.0 by 50.0% on November 2020 from 14200.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s loans to private sector increased by 6.84%. China’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 21300.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29394.2.China’s cash reserve ratio icnreased to 12.5 by 13.64% on June 2020 from 11.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s cash reserve ratio decreased by -7.41%. China’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 12.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.7083.China’s reverse repo rate decreased to 2.2 by -8.33% on March 2020 from 2.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis China’s reverse repo rate decreased by -13.73%. China’s reverse repo rate trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.49583.

China macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the China economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses China Manufacturing PMI new orders to gauge economic growth expectations and China Manufacturing PMI prices to gauge inflation expectations. China’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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