Turkey Economy

Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased to 6.7 by -167.68% on July 2020 from -9.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased by -42.24%. Turkey’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.06667.Turkey’s inflation cpi icnreased to 14.03 by 18.0% on November 2020 from 11.89 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s inflation cpi increased by 32.86%. Turkey’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 14.03 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.0308.Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased to 12.7 by -3.79% on September 2020 from 13.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.97%. Turkey’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.2833.

Turkey Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
BIST 100 BIST 1351.59 1 0.5 -0.98094 78.9154 -1.94 -2.84 -1.86 -0.98635
Turkey ETF TUR 21.25 1 1 1.55275 78.7173 -0.33 -3.32 -7.12 0.01813
Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) TRYUSD 8.56 -0.5 -0.25 0.57135 31.467 -0.37 -0.94 4.4 0.26607
Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield TR.10Y 17.48 0 0 0.07764 47.7379 3.31 1.45 1.39 0.0425
Turkey 5-Year Bond Yield TR.5Y 17.61 0.5 0.25 0.4592 45.5742 -0.84 -2.76 -0.17 0.0493
Turkey 2-year bond yield TR.2Y 18.69 1 1 1.67649 66.7231 5.3 2.98 1.58 0.24743
Turkey Yield Curve TR.YC -1.88 1 -1 -2.04681 36.0992 113.64 2250 469.7 -5.90476
Turkey Credit Default Swaps CDS.Turkey 381.25 -1 -0.75 -1.38228 23.7593 -1.23 -0.2 -11.18 0.12721

BIST 100 closed up by 0.01207% to 1540.61 on 23 January 2021 and +0.04326% on a weekly basis. BIST 100 momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. BIST 100 trend is +0.5/100 indicating a positive trend. BIST 100 momentum exhaustion is -0.98094 indicating BIST 100 is oversold.Turkey ETF closed up by 0.00861% to 26.95 on 23 January 2021 and +0.04538% on a weekly basis. Turkey ETF momentum was last calculated at +1.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Turkey ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Turkey ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.55275 indicating Turkey ETF is oversold.Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield closed up by 0.0% to 12.51 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00321% on a weekly basis. Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield trend is +0.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is 0.07764 indicating Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) closed up by 0.0003% to 7.4392 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.01565% on a weekly basis. Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) momentum exhaustion is 0.57135 indicating Turkish Lira US Dollar (TRY/USD) is oversold.Turkey Credit Default Swaps closed down by -0.00493% to 303.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.09687% on a weekly basis. Turkey Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Turkey Credit Default Swaps trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. Turkey Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.38228 indicating Turkey Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

Turkey Macroeconomic model

MacroVar
Turkey Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the
two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response.
Turkey’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Turkey Macro Model

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Turkey Economy

Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased to 6.7 by -167.68% on July 2020 from -9.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased by -42.24%. Turkey’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.06667.Turkey’s inflation cpi icnreased to 14.03 by 18.0% on November 2020 from 11.89 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s inflation cpi increased by 32.86%. Turkey’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 14.03 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.0308.Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased to 12.7 by -3.79% on September 2020 from 13.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.97%. Turkey’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.2833.Turkey’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.4 by -4.64% on November 2020 from 53.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s manufacturing pmi increased by 3.84%. Turkey’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9.Turkey’s building permits icnreased to 45568.0 by 22.81% on September 2020 from 37103.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s building permits increased by 134.55%. Turkey’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 45568.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41294.5.Turkey’s business confidence icnreased to 106.8 by 2.79% on December 2020 from 103.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s business confidence increased by 3.09%. Turkey’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 106.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 98.1667.Turkey’s consumer confidence decreased to 80.1 by -2.2% on November 2020 from 81.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s consumer confidence decreased by -1.48%. Turkey’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 81.0.

Turkey Economic analysis

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 7 5.9 0.186441 -0.0666667 1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 17.53 16.59 0.0566606 0.389065 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 13.2 13.8 -0.0434783 -0.0222222 1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 99.7 93.2 0.0697425 0.881132 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 99.7 93.2 0.0697425 0.881132 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.3 49.3 0.040568 -0.0482375 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2001430 1949520 0.0266271 0.225315 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 39.5 32.6 0.211656 0.0367454 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 448393 450048 -0.00367739 -0.039138 1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 62583 59619 0.0497157 0.259595 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-07-09
gold reserves 544.15 561.03 -0.0300875 1.69381 1.0 1.0 0.9 2020-06-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -3081 -1734 0.776817 -0.22975 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -5.1 0.9 -6.66667 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 17 17 0 1.06061 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-06
central bank balance sheet 1434140000 1407080000 0.0192313 0.377365 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
banks balance sheet 6459110000 6097500000 0.0593046 0.335128 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-03-31
money supply m2 3778100000 3666690000 0.0303844 0.254095 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-06-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -25.03 -13.37 0.872102 0.292191 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-06-30
government revenues 88.35 104.57 -0.155111 0.333136 -1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 113.38 117.94 -0.0386637 0.323874 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30

Turkey Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 113 110.3 0.0244787 0.220302 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 99.7 93.2 0.0697425 0.881132 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 99.7 93.2 0.0697425 0.881132 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
manufacturing pmi 51.3 49.3 0.040568 -0.0482375 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector 9.3 4 1.325 -1.31525 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -19.4 -14 0.385714 -0.167382 -1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Construction sector -13.6 -18.2 -0.252747 -0.687356 -1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Retail sector 8.3 6.3 0.31746 -1.60584 -1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Services sector 18.9 7.6 1.48684 -1.72692 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01

Turkey’s business confidence icnreased to 106.8 by 2.79% on December 2020 from 103.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s business confidence increased by 3.09%. Turkey’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 106.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 98.1667.Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 86.9 by -646.0% on January 2021 from 92.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -334.0%. Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 86.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 80.725.Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 86.9 by -646.0% on January 2021 from 92.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -334.0%. Turkey’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 86.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 80.725.Turkey’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.4 by -4.64% on November 2020 from 53.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s manufacturing pmi increased by 3.84%. Turkey’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9.Turkey’s Manufacturing sector decreased to 0.1 by -9792.0% on January 2021 from 4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -10385.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.63333.Turkey’s Consumer sector icnreased to -18.6 by 1273.0% on January 2021 from -16.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer sector decreased by -363.0%. Turkey’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -18.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.2.Turkey’s Construction sector icnreased to -17.0 by 2143.0% on January 2021 from -14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction sector decreased by -5278.0%. Turkey’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.9167.Turkey’s Retail sector On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail sector decreased by -31111.0%. Turkey’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.54167.Turkey’s Services sector icnreased to -19.3 by 1840.0% on January 2021 from -16.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services sector increased by 11932.0%. Turkey’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -19.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.4667.

Turkey Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
total vehicle sales 79819 54734 0.458307 0.124639 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30
consumer confidence 79.5 81.7 -0.0269278 -0.0340219 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-07-31
car registrations 76877 102461 -0.249695 0.476133 -1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-05-31
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -16.7 -6.6 1.5303 -0.416084 -1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -18.6 -13.2 0.409091 -0.360825 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 36.5 29.4 0.241497 0.351852 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 36 27.5 0.309091 -0.220779 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -6.3 -3.5 0.8 -0.3 -1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -68.2 -62.3 0.094703 -0.190985 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation -24.9 -21.5 0.15814 -0.261128 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01

Turkey’s total vehicle sales decreased to 80141.0 by -15.4% on November 2020 from 94733.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s total vehicle sales increased by 37.76%. Turkey’s total vehicle sales trend is down since the current value of 80141.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 63249.6.Turkey’s consumer confidence decreased to 80.1 by -2.2% on November 2020 from 81.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s consumer confidence decreased by -1.48%. Turkey’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 81.0.Turkey’s car registrations decreased to 102636.0 by -10.3% on November 2020 from 114426.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s car registrations increased by 52.9%. Turkey’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 102636.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 84761.8.Turkey’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -19.2 by 2549.0% on January 2021 from -15.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -1830.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.0667.Turkey’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -19.7 by 944.0% on January 2021 from -18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -619.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.8917.Turkey’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 37.1 by 2006.0% on January 2021 from 30.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 6201.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 37.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.5.Turkey’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 37.8 by 161.0% on January 2021 from 37.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -825.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 37.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.5167.Turkey’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -3.8 by 1875.0% on January 2021 from -3.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased by -952.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.08333.Turkey’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -70.7 by 158.0% on January 2021 from -69.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -818.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -70.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -77.4917.Turkey’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to -26.7 by -74.0% on January 2021 from -26.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -464.0%. Turkey’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of -26.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.025.


Turkey Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 51.3 49.3 0.040568 -0.0482375 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
Manufacturing sector 9.3 4 1.325 -1.31525 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -3.4 -11 -0.690909 -0.927966 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 39.4 32.9 0.197568 48.25 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 20.7 11.4 0.815789 -2.19653 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -6.9 -16 -0.56875 -0.857143 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -3.2 -2.7 0.185185 -4.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 28.1 20.5 0.370732 -1.69901 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
industrial production 40.7 66.3 -0.386124 -3.16489 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
industrial production mom 1.3 -0.8 -2.625 -0.930481 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 76.6 75.3 0.0172643 0.160606 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30

Turkey’s manufacturing pmi decreased to 51.4 by -4.64% on November 2020 from 53.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s manufacturing pmi increased by 3.84%. Turkey’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 51.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9.Turkey’s Manufacturing sector decreased to 0.1 by -9792.0% on January 2021 from 4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -10385.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.63333.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -14.2 by -139.0% on January 2021 from -14.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased by -3395.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -14.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.6417.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 36.9 by 1319.0% on January 2021 from 32.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) increased by 7488.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 36.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.2417.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 18.7 by -1179.0% on January 2021 from 21.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 21167.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 18.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.99167.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -20.5 by -330.0% on January 2021 from -21.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 10297.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -20.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.6333.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 1.0 by -12941.0% on January 2021 from -3.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -6667.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.333333.Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 15.5 by -3898.0% on January 2021 from 25.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -774.0%. Turkey’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.4667.Turkey’s industrial production icnreased to 10.2 by 22.89% on October 2020 from 8.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s industrial production increased by 168.42%. Turkey’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 10.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.Turkey’s industrial production mom decreased to 1.1 by -35.29% on October 2020 from 1.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s industrial production mom decreased by -283.33%. Turkey’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.60833.Turkey’s capacity utilization decreased to 75.6 by -0.26% on December 2020 from 75.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s capacity utilization decreased by -1.82%. Turkey’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 75.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 71.8667.


Turkey Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 18.9 7.6 1.48684 -1.72692 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 21.1 13.2 0.598485 -1.55381 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 27.5 18.3 0.502732 -4.19767 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 18.2 4 3.55 -1.875 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 17.6 5.6 2.14286 -1.91192 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 3.3 2.3 0.434783 -1.30275 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 13.5 5.2 1.59615 -1.60268 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Turkey’s Services sector icnreased to -19.3 by 1840.0% on January 2021 from -16.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services sector increased by 11932.0%. Turkey’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -19.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.4667.Turkey’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -8.5 by 11250.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 55385.0%. Turkey’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.7.Turkey’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 14.5 by 4078.0% on January 2021 from 10.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -461.0%. Turkey’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 14.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.03333.Turkey’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -23.2 by 642.0% on January 2021 from -21.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 11482.0%. Turkey’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.5667.Turkey’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -26.3 by 1435.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) increased by 8652.0%. Turkey’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.1333.Turkey’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -12.0 by -164.0% on January 2021 from -12.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -323.0%. Turkey’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.8583.Turkey’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -2.8 by -2632.0% on January 2021 from -3.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -2222.0%. Turkey’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.20833.

Turkey Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 8.3 6.3 0.31746 -1.60584 -1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 17.6 10.2 0.72549 -1.55873 -1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 59.7 51.6 0.156977 2.01515 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 21.6 10.8 1 -3 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 13.2 6.6 1 -6.07692 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 16.3 14.8 0.101351 -1.49394 -1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 18.1 12.1 0.495868 -2.86598 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
retail sales 27 42.5 -0.364706 -2.53409 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 5.1 3.6 0.416667 -1.72857 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-03-31

Turkey’s Retail sector On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail sector decreased by -31111.0%. Turkey’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.54167.Turkey’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -8.9 by 8163.0% on January 2021 from -4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 212500.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.775.Turkey’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 51.7 by 1239.0% on January 2021 from 46.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 4563.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 51.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.175.Turkey’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -9.6 by 435.0% on January 2021 from -9.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 10426.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.25.Turkey’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to -9.7 by 5397.0% on January 2021 from -6.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Stock Levels increased by 6167.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.7167.Turkey’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -5.8 by 11482.0% on January 2021 from -2.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -46250.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.08333.Turkey’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -3.8 by 17143.0% on January 2021 from -1.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -500.0%. Turkey’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.79167.Turkey’s retail sales icnreased to 12.0 by 42.86% on October 2020 from 8.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s retail sales increased by 44.58%. Turkey’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.84167.Turkey’s retail sales MoM icnreased to 4.2 by 35.48% on October 2020 from 3.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s retail sales MoM increased by 366.67%. Turkey’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 4.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.4.


Turkey Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -13.6 -18.2 -0.252747 -0.687356 -1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -18.7 -22.9 -0.183406 -0.591703 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 20.5 5 3.1 -1.69728 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months -8.4 -13.4 -0.373134 -0.796117 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
building permits 81245 43979 0.847359 1.4104 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31
new home sales 18204 29212 -0.376831 0.0797153 -1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
housing starts 13145 8069 0.629074 1.91463 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-03-31
housing index 175.4 168.8 0.0390995 0.292557 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -4.2 -7.7 -0.454545 -0.897561 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 53.9 51.4 0.0486381 0.589971 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 22.1 23.5 -0.0595745 -0.35942 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 2.3 1.6 0.4375 -0.410256 -1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 1.9 2.3 -0.173913 -0.512821 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 2.3 2.1 0.0952381 -0.148148 1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 19 28.1 -0.323843 -0.460227 -1.0 -1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 27.8 25.1 0.10757 -0.160121 1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-04-01

Turkey’s Construction sector icnreased to -17.0 by 2143.0% on January 2021 from -14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction sector decreased by -5278.0%. Turkey’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.9167.Turkey’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -33.0 by 1379.0% on January 2021 from -29.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -4107.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -40.75.Turkey’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to 25.0 by 1364.0% on January 2021 from 22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -60000.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.5.Turkey’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to -1.0 by -15000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -9565.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.9167.Turkey’s building permits icnreased to 45568.0 by 22.81% on September 2020 from 37103.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s building permits increased by 134.55%. Turkey’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 45568.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41294.5.Turkey’s new home sales decreased to 36658.0 by -0.86% on November 2020 from 36976.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s new home sales decreased by -25.05%. Turkey’s new home sales trend is down since the current value of 36658.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42360.2.Turkey’s housing starts icnreased to 7947.0 by 26.54% on September 2020 from 6280.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s housing starts increased by 168.03%. Turkey’s housing starts trend is down since the current value of 7947.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5570.33.Turkey’s housing index icnreased to 149.9 by 2.18% on October 2020 from 146.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s housing index increased by 29.45%. Turkey’s housing index trend is down since the current value of 149.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 132.583.Turkey’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -8.0 by 30000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -7037.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.4167.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 33.0 by -571.0% on January 2021 from 35.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 1000.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.8333.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 33.0 by 1000.0% on January 2021 from 30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased by -2826.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 36.1667.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 7.0 by 13333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) increased by 4000.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.66667.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 5.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) increased by 6667.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.83333.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 4.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -2000.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.41667.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 190000.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.5.Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 40.0 by 256.0% on January 2021 from 39.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased by -1667.0%. Turkey’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 40.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.75.


Turkey GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 434359000 512715000 -0.152826 0.0971626 -1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-03-31
gdp growth annual 7 5.9 0.186441 -0.0666667 1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-01-01
gdp 720.1 761.43 -0.0542794 -0.0653635 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 1.7 15.9 -0.893082 -0.26087 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2020-10-01

Turkey’s Real GDP icnreased to 501885000.0 by 29.78% on July 2020 from 386706000.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s Real GDP increased by 11.21%. Turkey’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 501885000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 438187000.0.Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased to 6.7 by -167.68% on July 2020 from -9.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gdp growth annual decreased by -42.24%. Turkey’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.06667.Turkey’s gdp decreased to 754.41 by -2.2% on January 2019 from 771.35 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gdp increased by 11.64%. Turkey’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 754.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 822.843.Turkey’s gdp growth decreased to 15.6 by -244.44% on July 2020 from -10.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gdp growth increased by 817.65%. Turkey’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 15.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.908333.

Turkey inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 434359000 512715000 -0.152826 0.0971626 -1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-03-31
gdp growth annual 7 5.9 0.186441 -0.0666667 1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-01-01
gdp 720.1 761.43 -0.0542794 -0.0653635 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 1.7 15.9 -0.893082 -0.26087 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2020-10-01

Turkey’s inflation cpi icnreased to 14.03 by 18.0% on November 2020 from 11.89 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s inflation cpi increased by 32.86%. Turkey’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 14.03 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.0308.Turkey’s core inflation rate icnreased to 13.26 by 15.51% on November 2020 from 11.48 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s core inflation rate increased by 43.35%. Turkey’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 13.26 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.8783.Turkey’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 498.58 by 2.3% on November 2020 from 487.38 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s consumer price index cpi increased by 14.03%. Turkey’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 498.58 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 464.232.Turkey’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 555.18 by 4.08% on November 2020 from 533.44 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s Producer Price Index increased by 23.11%. Turkey’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 555.18 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 490.653.Turkey’s PPI Index icnreased to 23.11 by 26.98% on November 2020 from 18.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s PPI Index increased by 442.49%. Turkey’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of 23.11 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.6558.

 

 

Turkey Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -3.4 -2.9 0.172414 0.888889 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -25.03 -13.37 0.872102 0.292191 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-06-30
government revenues 88.35 104.57 -0.155111 0.333136 -1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 113.38 117.94 -0.0386637 0.323874 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30

Turkey’s Government budget decreased to -4572020.0 by -84.47% on October 2020 from -29436100.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s Government budget decreased by -65.46%. Turkey’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -4572020.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14393900.0.Turkey’s government revenues icnreased to 91440400.0 by 18.94% on October 2020 from 76876700.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s government revenues increased by 43.41%. Turkey’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 91440400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 79760200.0.Turkey’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 96012400.0 by -9.69% on October 2020 from 106313000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s fiscal expenditure increased by 24.7%. Turkey’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 96012400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 94497000.0.


Turkey Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 17 17 0 1.06061 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-06
central bank balance sheet 1434140000 1407080000 0.0192313 0.377365 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
banks balance sheet 6459110000 6097500000 0.0593046 0.335128 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-03-31
money supply m1 1374960000 1327640000 0.0356422 0.248216 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-06-30
money supply m2 3778100000 3666690000 0.0303844 0.254095 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-06-30
money supply m3 3889590000 3772610000 0.0310077 0.236246 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-06-30

Turkey’s interest rate icnreased to 17.0 by 13.33% on August 2020 from 15.0 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Turkey’s interest rate decreased by -13.92%. Turkey’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.7708.Turkey’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 1155060000.0 by -4.06% on November 2020 from 1204000000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s central bank balance sheet increased by 48.55%. Turkey’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1155060000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1019840000.0.Turkey’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 5613390000.0 by 5.07% on July 2020 from 5342310000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s banks balance sheet increased by 36.1%. Turkey’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 5613390000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4739750000.0.Turkey’s money supply m2 icnreased to 3374830000.0 by 1.96% on December 2020 from 3310060000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s money supply m2 increased by 37.33%. Turkey’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 3374830000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3015530000.0.


Turkey Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 99.6 89.8 0.109131 0.911708 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
EEI - Employment Composite 99.6 89.8 0.109131 0.911708 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 13.2 13.8 -0.0434783 -0.0222222 1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 25 25.7 -0.0272374 0.0869565 -1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 3.5 3.3 0.0606061 0.521739 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-01

Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 96.9 by -51.0% on January 2021 from 97.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite increased by 222.0%. Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 96.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.9667.Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 96.9 by -51.0% on January 2021 from 97.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite increased by 222.0%. Turkey’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 96.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.9667.Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased to 12.7 by -3.79% on September 2020 from 13.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s unemployment rate decreased by -7.97%. Turkey’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.2833.Turkey’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 24.3 by -6.9% on September 2020 from 26.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s youth unemployment rate decreased by -6.9%. Turkey’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 24.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.0.Turkey’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 2.8 by -17.65% on February 2020 from 3.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s long term unemployment rate increased by 27.27%. Turkey’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.78333.


Turkey Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -3081 -1734 0.776817 -0.22975 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -5.1 0.9 -6.66667 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 16497.5 18768 -0.120977 0.656785 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 23636.8 19308.1 0.224191 0.255794 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-03-31
balance of trade -4652.81 -3331.55 0.39659 -0.14918 -1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-03-31
capital flows -1772 -788 1.24873 -0.814741 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-03-31
foreign direct investment 87 361 -75.9 -66.79 Down Down 1.67 2021-01-12

Turkey’s current account decreased to -273.0 by -89.33% on October 2020 from -2559.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s current account decreased by -109.97%. Turkey’s current account trend is down since the current value of -273.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2816.25.Turkey’s current account to gdp decreased to 1.2 by -146.15% on January 2019 from -2.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s current account to gdp decreased by -121.82%. Turkey’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.14167.Turkey’s exports icnreased to 17329.3 by 8.41% on October 2020 from 15985.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s exports increased by 5.6%. Turkey’s exports trend is down since the current value of 17329.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13810.8.Turkey’s imports decreased to 19702.8 by -5.44% on October 2020 from 20836.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s imports increased by 8.4%. Turkey’s imports trend is down since the current value of 19702.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17847.7.Turkey’s balance of trade decreased to -2373.52 by -51.06% on October 2020 from -4849.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s balance of trade increased by 34.43%. Turkey’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -2373.52 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3910.48.Turkey’s capital flows decreased to 1330.0 by -153.67% on October 2020 from -2478.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s capital flows increased by 3.1%. Turkey’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of 1330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3418.75.Turkey’s foreign direct investment decreased to 87.0 by -7590.0% on January 2021 from 361.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s foreign direct investment decreased by -6679.0%. Turkey’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 87.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 433.75.

Turkey Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 62583 59619 0.0497157 0.259595 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-07-09
gold reserves 544.15 561.03 -0.0300875 1.69381 1.0 1.0 0.9 2020-06-01

Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 49965.0 by -3.18% on December 2020 from 51607.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 21.52%. Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 49965.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45436.5.Turkey’s gold reserves decreased to 561.03 by -3.77% on May 2020 from 583.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s gold reserves increased by 235.14%. Turkey’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 561.03 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 344.122.Turkey’s government debt decreased to 1872090.0 by -3.25% on November 2020 from 1934960.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s government debt increased by 46.92%. Turkey’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1872090.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1632330.0.Turkey’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 33.1 by 8.88% on January 2019 from 30.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s government debt to gdp decreased by -13.35%. Turkey’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 33.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33.2667.Turkey’s external debt icnreased to 435121.0 by 3.15% on May 2020 from 421826.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s external debt decreased by -2.2%. Turkey’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 435121.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 444074.0.


Turkey Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 2001430 1949520 0.0266271 0.225315 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 39.5 32.6 0.211656 0.0367454 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 448393 450048 -0.00367739 -0.039138 1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01

Turkey’s government debt decreased to 1872090.0 by -3.25% on November 2020 from 1934960.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s government debt increased by 46.92%. Turkey’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1872090.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1632330.0.Turkey’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 33.1 by 8.88% on January 2019 from 30.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s government debt to gdp decreased by -13.35%. Turkey’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 33.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33.2667.Turkey’s external debt icnreased to 435121.0 by 3.15% on May 2020 from 421826.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s external debt decreased by -2.2%. Turkey’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 435121.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 444074.0.


Turkey Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 19.48 19.48 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 17.5 15.5 0.129032 1.59259 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-02-28
loans to private sector 1847920000 1825070000 0.0125201 0.159217 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-05-31
lending rate 20.5 20.5 0 1.10256 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
cash reserve ratio 19 17 0.117647 0.117647 1.0 1.0 0.85 2020-09-30

Turkey’s interbank rate On a year on year basis Turkey’s interbank rate increased by 1.02%. Turkey’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 15.044 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.0761.Turkey’s deposit interest rate decreased to 9.75 by -7.14% on January 2020 from 10.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s deposit interest rate decreased by -56.67%. Turkey’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 9.75 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.4375.Turkey’s loans to private sector decreased to 1792200000.0 by -0.92% on November 2020 from 1808900000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s loans to private sector increased by 41.0%. Turkey’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 1792200000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1572830000.0.Turkey’s lending rate icnreased to 18.5 by 12.12% on January 2021 from 16.5 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Turkey’s lending rate increased by 45.1%. Turkey’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 18.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.1875.Turkey’s cash reserve ratio icnreased to 19.0 by 11.76% on September 2020 from 17.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Turkey’s cash reserve ratio increased by 11.76%. Turkey’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.3333.

Turkey macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Turkey economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Turkey Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Turkey Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Turkey’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish

Read more on how to analyze a country’s
macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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