XLY/XLP closed down by -0.21% to 2.56 on 23 January 2021 and +1.37% on a weekly basis. XLY/XLP momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. XLY/XLP trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. XLY/XLP momentum exhaustion is 1.45352 indicating XLY/XLP is oversold.XLY/XLP RSI is 65.2631 .
XLY/XLP closed at 2.56 on 23 January 2021. XLY/XLP trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. XLY/XLP momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. XLY/XLP momentum exhaustion is 1.45352 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating XLY/XLP is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. XLY/XLP RSI was last calculated at 65.2631. XLY/XLP moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 2.36328 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 2.33675 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 2.13832 in an uptrend. XLY/XLP annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.21%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.37%. XLY/XLP histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 8.42715%, XLY/XLP alpha None, XLY/XLP beta None and XLY/XLP maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor XLY/XLP statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar XLY/XLP momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
XLY/XLP momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLY/XLP return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
XLY/XLP BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
XLY/XLP momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
XLY/XLP trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. XLY/XLP trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLY/XLP Closing price vs
XLY/XLP moving average (MA) calculation: If
XLY/XLP is greater than XLY/XLP MA value is +1, else -1, 2. XLY/XLP Moving average slope calculation: if current
XLY/XLP moving average is higher than the previous MA,
XLY/XLP upward slope +1, else -1
XLY/XLP trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
XLY/XLP trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when XLY/XLP trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The XLY/XLP 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
XLY/XLP is in an uptrend when XLY/XLP price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
XLY/XLP 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
XLY/XLP oscillator and XLY/XLP RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
The XLY/XLP oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
XLY/XLP price versus XLY/XLP 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
XLY/XLP oscillator is:
XLY/XLP oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
XLY/XLP simple moving average price) / (250 days XLY/XLP price standard deviation)
XLY/XLP oversold conditions
XLY/XLP is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
XLY/XLP is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
XLY/XLP oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
XLY/XLP oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
XLY/XLP quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
XLY/XLP overbought conditions
XLY/XLP is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
XLY/XLP is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
XLY/XLP oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
XLY/XLP quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
XLY/XLP RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when XLY/XLP is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
XLY/XLP uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
MacroVar calculates XLY/XLP returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: