Emerging Markets

Get a snapshot of current economic and financial market conditions of emerging markets. MacroVar characterizes emerging markets the largest 18 countries in the world in terms of GDP. Click any country to view a detailed analysis of the country's current economic and financial conditions.

Emerging Markets Economic Growth

MacroVar Emerging Markets index is a gauge of developed markets economic grwoth. It is a weighted average of the Manufacturing PMI of the largest emerging 19 economies in the world weighted by each country's GDP. A value higher than 50 indicates growth while a value lower than 50 contraction.

Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI

Emerging Markets growth Statistics


IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI

Emerging Markets Economies

Get a snapshot of current economic and financial markets of emerging markets. MacroVar characterizes developed markets the largest 19 countries in the world in terms of GDP.

Business ConfidenceMV ModelEconomic GrowthMonetaryGovernment (%GDP)Markets (Y/Y%)
CountryClick on each country link to view each country's macroeconomic and financial data analysis
M.PMIManufacturing PMI
GRGrowth Momentum
INFLInflation Momentum
GDPReal GDP Value
GDP YYReal GDP Year on Year % Change
UEUnemployment Rate
CPIConsumer Price Index used to measure Inflation
CBCentral Bank rate %
M2M2 Money Supply Year on Year Change
B/SBalance Sheet Year on Year Change
FX ResForeign Exchange Reserves
S/DGovernment Surplus / Deficit
DebtGovernment Local Debt
E. DebtExternal Debt
CACurrent Account
StocksStocks Year on Year change
BondsBonds Year on Year change
YCYield Curve year on year change
FXFX year on year change
CDSCDS year on year change
Emerging Index
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
China
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
India
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
South Korea
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Russia
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Brazil
53.7M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
297300114.78.06239225204052470000353448-13.475.7963672056601302089.241.565.06163.38
Mexico
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Indonesia
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Turkey
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Taiwan
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Poland
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Thailand
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Philippines
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Hong Kong
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Malaysia
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
South Africa
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Vietnam
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
11892204.4812.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Czechia
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2
Hungary
43.2M. PMI Year on Year: -- M. PMI 12 MA
20494-1.212.24.240.8-2.88.6512131312.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.212.2

Emerging Financial Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Emerging Bond RiskRISK.EMRISK-0.130.5-0.75-0.6609948.9942-255.55-141.71-113.510.12414
Emerging Markets Bonds (EMB)EMB112.40.510.8691157.89970.090.221.430.01025
MSCI Emerging MarketsMSCI.EMERGING1312.15112.3482181.939-1.94-3.55-3.870.24704
Emerging Markets ETFEEM53.2112.1619972.7358-1.26-1.86-2.740.18809
JP Morgan Emerging Market Bonds RiskEMB112.40.510.8691157.89970.090.221.430.01025
Emerging Currency Strategy FundCEW17.96111.5682162.1836-0.5-1.26-0.940.00108
VXEEMVXEEM20.650-0.5-0.3879452.136511.81.28-0.480.45873
CDX Emerging Markets IndexEM.CDXEM161.92-1-0.75-0.4789648.07410.34.070.571.84369
EM Y/Y vs Global PMI Y/YEMPMI.FACT.GLOBALPMI
EEM/SPYEEMSPY.SPREAD0.12112.741568.4019-2.84-6.34-8.390.0355
EM Y/Y vs EEM Y/YEEM.FACT.EMPMI49.69
EM Y/Y vs 10Y Y/YEMPMI.FACT.US10Y0.93
EM Y/Y vs DXY Y/YEMPMI.FACT.DXY91.297
EM Y/Y vs US 10Y Y/YEMPMI.FACT.US10Y
EM Y/Y vs DXY Y/YEMPMI.FACT.DXY
EEM Y/Y vs EMB Y/YEEM.FACT.EMB
EEM/CDX EMEEM.CDXEM0.021.013.097.53
EMB/TLHEMBTLH0.35112.0894171.8215-3.01-5.44-7.820.09637

Emerging Markets Risk Model

Risk Management model

Last
Signal
-1 Week
-1 Month
-3 Months
-6 Months
Momentum
0.38
0.35
0.2
0.27
-0.15
0.12
0.13
0.21
0.43
0.28
-0.88
-0.78
-0.72
-0.86
-0.86
-0.39
-0.33
-0.13
-0.06
0.06
-0.49
-0.43
-0.41
-0.18
-0.49
-0.52
-0.52
-0.48
-0.48
-0.39
-0.19
-0.35
-0.16
0.33
-0.57
MacroVar Risk Index MacroVar Risk Index
Stock risk Stock risk
Credit risk Credit risk
Currency risk Currency risk
Emerging Markets risk Emerging Markets risk
Liquidity risk Liquidity risk
Bond risk Bond risk
Last
Signal
-1 Week
-1 Month
-3 Months
-6 Months
Momentum
MacroVar Risk Index MacroVar Risk Index
0.38
0.35
0.2
0.27
-0.15
Stock risk Stock risk
0.12
0.13
0.21
0.43
0.28
Credit risk Credit risk
-0.88
-0.78
-0.72
-0.86
-0.86
Currency risk Currency risk
-0.39
-0.33
-0.13
-0.06
0.06
Emerging Markets risk Emerging Markets risk
-0.49
-0.43
-0.41
-0.18
-0.49
Liquidity risk Liquidity risk
-0.52
-0.52
-0.48
-0.48
-0.39
Bond risk Bond risk
-0.19
-0.35
-0.16
0.33
-0.57
Access MacroVar detailed analysis of current risk conditions using MacroVar risk management models.

Emerging market risk model

Emerging market risk is modeled by monitoring credit risk in emerging markets. Credit risk is the likelihood that a company or a government goes bankrupt and the amount the investor loses if it happens. Credit risky securities include corporate debt securities like corporate bonds and bank loans and sovereign debt. Credit default swaps are widely used derivatives used in credit risk management to describe market perceptions of credit risk for a specific government or corporation. Credit default swaps (CDS) are derivatives contracts which by construction aim at quantifying the risk of default of a counterparty. Therefore, CDS written major financial institutions or corporations are early signals to monitor and detect elevated credit risk conditions in the global financial system.

MacroVar monitors CDX emerging markets index. CDX emerging markets index is composed of fifteen sovereign entities that trade in the CDS market. Extreme values of z-scores greater than two indicate elevated credit risk conditions and vice-versa.

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