World Markets

Monitor world markets, market risk, economic conditions and news stream using MacroVar quantitative models. Explore MacroVar World Markets Models.

World Stock Markets

Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
4255.15
0.182
100
100
1.69
4255.15
0.182
100
100
1.69
373.64
21425.5
2804.23
55.44
ACWI ACWI
S&P 500 S&P 500
STOXX STOXX
NIKKEI NIKKEI
SSEC SSEC
EEM EEM
Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
ACWI ACWI
4255.15
0.182
100
100
1.69
S&P 500 S&P 500
4255.15
0.182
100
100
1.69
STOXX STOXX
373.64
NIKKEI NIKKEI
21425.5
SSEC SSEC
2804.23
EEM EEM
55.44
Explore detailed analysis for all the major World stock markets.

World Market Risk

Risk Management model

Last
Signal
-1 Week
-1 Month
-3 Months
-6 Months
Momentum
0.38
0.35
0.2
0.27
-0.15
0.12
0.13
0.21
0.43
0.28
-0.88
-0.78
-0.72
-0.86
-0.86
-0.39
-0.33
-0.13
-0.06
0.06
-0.49
-0.43
-0.41
-0.18
-0.49
-0.52
-0.52
-0.48
-0.48
-0.39
-0.19
-0.35
-0.16
0.33
-0.57
MacroVar Risk Index MacroVar Risk Index
Stock risk Stock risk
Credit risk Credit risk
Currency risk Currency risk
Emerging Markets risk Emerging Markets risk
Liquidity risk Liquidity risk
Bond risk Bond risk
Last
Signal
-1 Week
-1 Month
-3 Months
-6 Months
Momentum
MacroVar Risk Index MacroVar Risk Index
0.38
0.35
0.2
0.27
-0.15
Stock risk Stock risk
0.12
0.13
0.21
0.43
0.28
Credit risk Credit risk
-0.88
-0.78
-0.72
-0.86
-0.86
Currency risk Currency risk
-0.39
-0.33
-0.13
-0.06
0.06
Emerging Markets risk Emerging Markets risk
-0.49
-0.43
-0.41
-0.18
-0.49
Liquidity risk Liquidity risk
-0.52
-0.52
-0.48
-0.48
-0.39
Bond risk Bond risk
-0.19
-0.35
-0.16
0.33
-0.57
Access MacroVar detailed analysis of current risk conditions using MacroVar risk management models.

World Markets News Stream

Latest News Stream

Bonds

Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
2.91
75
-50
2.5
0.252
0.039
3.309
-1.19857
US 10Y US 10Y
DE 10Y DE 10Y
JP 10Y JP 10Y
CN 10Y CN 10Y
EMB EMB
Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
US 10Y US 10Y
2.91
75
-50
2.5
DE 10Y DE 10Y
0.252
JP 10Y JP 10Y
0.039
CN 10Y CN 10Y
3.309
EMB EMB
-1.19857
Explore detailed analysis for all the major World bond markets.

Currencies

Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
96.96
1854.78
0.00887
6.8448
18.51
DXY DXY
EUR EUR
JPY JPY
CNH CNH
CEW CEW
Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
DXY DXY
96.96
EUR EUR
1854.78
JPY JPY
0.00887
CNH CNH
6.8448
CEW CEW
18.51
Explore detailed analysis for all the major World Currencies.

Commodities

Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
52.94
2.758
328.8
1243.6
1182.1
488.21
Crude Oil Crude Oil
Copper Copper
Lumber Lumber
Gold Gold
Palladium Palladium
CRB Index CRB Index
Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
Crude Oil Crude Oil
52.94
Copper Copper
2.758
Lumber Lumber
328.8
Gold Gold
1243.6
Palladium Palladium
1182.1
CRB Index CRB Index
488.21
Explore detailed analysis for all the major commodities markets.

Macro Model

MacroVar Macro model

Economic StateGrowthInflationGrowth MomInflation MomGrowth TrendInflation Trend
GlobalGoldilocks (Quad 1)-3.41.4-12.2312.23
USReflation (Quad 2)1.30.11.3413.23
EurozoneStagnation (Quad 3)2.51.3-2.34-12.12
ChinaDeflation (Quad 4)3.5-1.24.564.5
Click to explore detailed analysis of Global Macroeconomic conditions.

World markets Models

World markets Models

MacroVar monitors world markets using the following quantitative models. These models are combined with statistical analysis of the specific factors affecting each financial market and analysis of world macroeconomic conditions.

World Market Momentum models

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVar momentum signals range from -100 to +100. The momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the a specific financial market. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. The financial market's return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. The momentum signal is the aggregate of the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when the  momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

World Market trend models

MacroVar trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. The World market trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. World market index Closing price vs World market index moving average (MA) calculation: If the World market index  is greater than World market index value is +1, else -1, 2. World market index Moving average slope calculation: if current World market index moving average is higher than the previous MA, World market index upward slope +1, else -1
World market index trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. World market index trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when World market index trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The World market index 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. A world market index is in an uptrend when the World market index price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the World market index 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the World market index oscillator and World market index RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

World Market oscillator models

The World market index oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current World market index price versus World market index 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the World market index oscillator is:
World market index oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days World market index simple moving average price) / (250 days World market index price standard deviation)

World Market Index oversold conditions
A world market index is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the World market index is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the World market index  oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the World market index oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of World market index quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the World market index RSI.
World Market index overbought conditions
A world market index is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the World market index is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the World market index  oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the World market index quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

World Market Index RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when a World market index is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During a World market index uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

World Market index statistics

MacroVar calculates World market index statistics by monitoring returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly returns.

 

World markets Risk Monitor

MacroVar has developed risk management models to monitor risk level of world markets and automatically update users on wrodl financial risk conditions. Explore MacroVar Risk Management in detail.

Analyzing the World Economy and Global Financial risk
The global economy and world markets experience long-term growth. When financial risk is low, financial markets operate smoothly providing ample liquidity to financial markets and the economy. During these periods high growth assets like stocks experience high returns and are priced efficiently based on their fundamental drivers. On the contrary, when financial risk is rising, market liquidity deteriorates because of a loss of confidence in banks, funding institutions or governments which causes a feedback loop of surging funding costs, increased price volatility and asset fire sales.

MacroVar world risk management model overview

MacroVar risk management model is a quantitative model which monitors critical financial markets and warns investors when financial risk is rising quickly. The risk management model monitors stocks, bonds, credit markets, currencies and global liquidity daily.

MacroVar model components
MacroVar risk management model is comprised of the following segments:

  • Stock Risk monitor: Stock risk is monitored by analyzing the implied volatility and shape of the term sturcture of the S&P 500 and Eurostoxx 50 stock markets.
  • Credit Risk monitor: Credit risk is monitored by analyzing the credit default swaps indices of the United States and European markets.
  • Bond Risk: Bond risk is monitored by analyzing the implied volatility of the US treasury market.
  • Emerging markets risk: Emerging markets risk is monitored by analyzing the credit default swaps of government bonds for major emerging countries.
  • Liquidity risk: Liquidity risk is monitored by analyzing the LIBOR-OIS spread.
  • Currency risk: Currency risk is monitored by analyzing the implied volatility of low-risk currencies and gold.

 

World Economic Model

The two most important economic indicators of the world economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar calculates a synthetic World Manufacturing PMI to forecast World economic growth expectations and World Manufacturing PMI prices to forecast Global inflation expectations. An economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers of the three major economies namely the United States, Eurozone and China (government & central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

Economic Basics
A country's economy is comprised of the public and private sector. The private sector is comprised of businesses and consumers. There are two types of businesses manufacturing, and services. A country's economy is also affected by the global economy since capital and products flow between countries.

Economic growth is measured by Real GDP which is the total income of a country in a year adjusted for inflation.

Inflation (CPI) measures the rate at which average price of products increases in a year.

Economic transactions are completed with either money or debt. The availability of credit is determined by the country's central bank. The degree to which debt is healthy for the economy depends on whether borrowed money is used productively to generate sufficient income to service the debt or not.

Economic Growth vs Inflation


An economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation and low unemployment.

Policymakers (government & central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

Excessive intervention in the economy may lead to loss of confidence in the country and a financial crisis. The degree of intervention depends on the country’s fundamentals. Read how to analyze an economy’s fundamentals.

Global Economy Model

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